The London housing bubble has finally burst

[longgone]

3 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Its low interest  rates not HTB.

it low rates htb and stupid people 

[stuckin2up2down]

On 31/08/2017 at 10:58 AM, Bland Unsight said:

Land Reg says London was £312k in March 2013 and £482k in June 2017, which means you need a 35% fall to take us back to prices at the announcement of HTB.

An 80% fall takes you to prices in December 1997.

Fair enough i thought HTB started long before then, I'm just talking about where I was looking in east london where in 2005 a house was 300k and last year they were selling for 1m. I didn't buy in 2005 as they already looked overpriced.

A 50% drop would just take us back to 2012 prices.

[Guest]

Did anything else coincide with the start of HTB? The rises in London seem too big to have been caused by HTB alone. Personally I think it was ongoing influx of foreigners outbidding each other on new builds in SW8 etc which radiated outward.

[Guest]

Yet another one of my latest customers who is a lawyer has moved to the rural area where I live. His and his wives modest little home have paid for a lovely country house with 2 to 5 acres, will have to ask, a guests house, barns, workshops and as about as Darling Buds of May as you can get. He still needs to spend a few days in London here and there, but what a change in qualitty of life, her words.

Yesterday went home with all the veg I could carry and 2 dozen fantastic eggs. Why on earth would someone want to live in London these days if they had a decent property there and never had to live there, the whole UK is your oyster

[dugsbody]

2 hours ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

Did anything else coincide with the start of HTB? The rises in London seem too big to have been caused by HTB alone. Personally I think it was ongoing influx of foreigners outbidding each other on new builds in SW8 etc which radiated outward.

In my opinion it was a signal. Low rates allow people to take larger mortgages but not many people want to buy at the top of a bubble, which 2008 had shown was possible. So despite low rates providing a mechanism for rapid growth, there was still some caution in the market. HTB comes along and provides the signal, "the government backs the housing market". It all kicks off from there as people take advantage of the new rates and the bidding frenzy starts. I feel we've reached the point where the surplus effective demand from the low rates has largely been used, in London at least. I expect many (most?) areas will see falls over the next year or two, some cheaper areas still have some rises as there are always some willing buyers and rates are keeping these areas "affordable". Unfortunately, this sentiment may result in some people taking gains and applying the low rate surplus demand to cheaper nicer areas outside of the capital.

[spyguy]

2 hours ago, wotsthat said:

Yet another one of my latest customers who is a lawyer has moved to the rural area where I live. His and his wives modest little home have paid for a lovely country house with 2 to 5 acres, will have to ask, a guests house, barns, workshops and as about as Darling Buds of May as you can get. He still needs to spend a few days in London here and there, but what a change in qualitty of life, her words.

Yesterday went home with all the veg I could carry and 2 dozen fantastic eggs. Why on earth would someone want to live in London these days if they had a decent property there and never had to live there, the whole UK is your oyster

Good for them. Probably added 20 years to his life and 30 years to their marriage.

I dont think the entire population of the UK - or at least London commuters - will move to telecommuniting overnight.

However, I see a lot splitting their week week, with 2 days in London and 3 days at home.

And then the entire London and surrounding market changes.

One of my medium to llong term things is living in n yorks and working in London 2/3 days/week.

 

 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Good for them. Probably added 20 years to his life and 30 years to their marriage.

I dont think the entire population of the UK - or at least London commuters - will move to telecommuniting overnight.

However, I see a lot splitting their week week, with 2 days in London and 3 days at home.

And then the entire London and surrounding market changes.

One of my medium to llong term things is living in n yorks and working in London 2/3 days/week.

 

 

A lot of my work is in rural Herts and South Cambs, nice enough but still very expensive, nothing as bad as London though which I have ruled out ever going back whatever happens to London property prices, though my heart will always be there. I will get my small holding one day and one of the big contenders is Suffolk which is within easy reach of my business. But I also have these  thoughts of really going for it and getting a place in Northumberland which really does suit my outdoor lifestyle  and rural criteria, and though it would also be cheaper for property and I could get far more for my money I would lose some business, a substantial amount, but still very doable.

Like you pointed out though, it adds years to your life, and more than that all those years left including those extra years are high quality.

[winkie]

On 8/31/2017 at 0:31 AM, Bland Unsight said:

Galbraith in The Affluent Society is pretty brutal on the 'conventional wisdom'. Not sure about the provenance of this quote, but it'll do for now: "The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking."
 

 

....good book, made me think of another good book M J Sandel What Money Can't Buy the moral limits of markets.

[EssKay]

On 8/31/2017 at 11:08 AM, Si1 said:

There's a meme that says double digit % falls are unheard of and so impossible/incomprehensible. 

 

This is the prevailing view amongst my work colleagues and circle of friends in London - none of them believe double digit % falls can happen - HPI is so ingrained into their world view - house prices always go up innit. 

 

I've stopped trying to be the voice of caution when I hear of people doubling down on their BTL portfolios or leveraging up again for the next rung on the ladder - utter madness given the current situation

 

 

[Shrink Proof]

3 minutes ago, EssKay said:

This is the prevailing view amongst my work colleagues and circle of friends in London - none of them believe double digit % falls can happen - HPI is so ingrained into their world view - house prices always go up innit. 

 

I've stopped trying to be the voice of caution when I hear of people doubling down on their BTL portfolios or leveraging up again for the next rung on the ladder - utter madness given the current situation.

That's not madness, it's stupidity.

Madness is potentially treatable. Stupidity you're just stuck with....

[MonkeyPuzzle]

"Property crash, ha, I'll believe it when I see it!" is, ipso facto, the fundamental criteria for losing absolutely every penny they ever thought they 'invested' in property.

That's what they don't get. Their 'seeing it' means it's TOO LATE. It's all over. It's done.

These are the same people who scoff at others who tell them to remove their sombrero first before pulling their jumper on over their head.

[thewig]

1 hour ago, Shrink Proof said:

That's not madness, it's stupidity.

Madness is potentially treatable. Stupidity you're just stuck with....

history has taught us over and over that madness is a matter of opinion, particularly that of the prevailing 'authority' of the time 

 

and I'd love to see these examples of treatable madness 

 

[Option5]

13 minutes ago, thewig said:

history has taught us over and over that madness is a matter of opinion, particularly that of the prevailing 'authority' of the time 

 

and I'd love to see these examples of treatable madness 

 

Madness, like poverty is hereditary, you get it from your kids

[thewig]

2 hours ago, Option5 said:

Madness, like poverty is hereditary, you get it from your kids

I try and learn from my kids as much as possible before they forget it!

[winkie]

55 minutes ago, thewig said:

I try and learn from my kids as much as possible before they forget it!

 

[thewig]

7 minutes ago, winkie said:

 

 

Nice

[maverick73]

I don't see much of a crash... more like a drizzle..... the pound is rising suspect on Thursday the BoE mob will indicate an end to QE program and raise expectations of a hike... Not sure how the market will react as it's a 'Boy who cried wolf' moment

[Monkey]

On 31/08/2017 at 0:22 AM, Tapori said:

Remember.

They thought the 2008 crash would never happen.They told us Hillary would win. They told us Jeremy Corbyn would do terribly. They told us we would vote to Remain in the EU. They told us St. Theresa would romp home with a 100+ majority.

You'd have to conclude that "They," are usually idiots who call it right once they're immersed in boiling water.

Sky bet was doing and accumulator on a Brexit win + Trump last year. I cant remember the odds but they were high,due to the elites not beleiving that either would happen, let alone both. I so wish i had put £100 on it.

 

Hindsight is marvelous

Edited September 9, 2017 by Monkey

[hardboiled]

The only way it's going to come down is if there's a 3rd world war, or the recession the news media are now saying is "just around the corner" rears it's head.

Brexit is years away

North Korea: We're not really on their hit list

Recession: I'm actually praying we do get one to calm peoples greed down!!

[Tapori]

On 9/9/2017 at 7:56 AM, Monkey said:

Sky bet was doing and accumulator on a Brexit win + Trump last year. I cant remember the odds but they were high,due to the elites not beleiving that either would happen, let alone both. I so wish i had put £100 on it.

 

Hindsight is marvelous

I think someones put 200k down on Brexit a few days before the vote. Top  lad.

Would have loved a bit of that accumulator. I called Brexit, Corbyn - Just Trump wrong. (Glad I was - Hillary = WW3 in Syria no question). people in media and talk-shops weren't travelling or speaking on the ground.

Though I'm of the left, every time Trump kept beating Right-establishment and Bernie kept running Hillary close, I knew a change was afoot. Eventually between Hillary and Trump, I was witness to what a large scale media-propaganda campaign looks like right through to even satire.

All these hilarious events truly exposed  in one sense mass media's relative influence. It is influential; but for once the string masters on all sides were unable to harness it to enact their favoured result. Witness the birth of forums, message-boards, cyber-media where passionate almost autistic people have more creativity and ideas than a bunch of middle-class careerist media-cosmo types in some trumped up PR firm.

And now? The next stage; if you get beaten by it you try to buy it - you try to control it. Witness print media forcing Youtube to demonetise key voices on all sides to demonstrate that these old power spheres still exist. PewdiePie might not have anything to do with you, but when the MSM start to target him as a youtuber with a reach of 55 million people directly through no real filter, it was clear the MSM wanted revenge for being shown to be the self-interested immoral morass of hubris and corruption it had become.

And ahead? More censorship. More targeting of any voice outside a new neo-liberal global agenda, an agenda that will castigate, demonize and harass anyone that voices anything that isn't "PC," i.e: receptive to corporate media interests, and my lefty comrades will be beaten down with this soggy mess of a virulent toxic form of nice-ness-authoritarianism when it turns on "them."

 

 

[Jack's Creation]

"...

7 hours ago, Tapori said:

 ...my lefty comrades will be beaten down with this soggy mess of a virulent toxic form of nice-ness-authoritarianism when it turns on "them."

 

 

That's what I find interesting about echo-chamber Millenials, they appear to have no understanding of the way that their cheerleading of 'no platforming" action's against Free-Speech could rebound on them.

They seem very naiive in their trust of the State.

 

Edited September 10, 2017 by Jack's Creation
spellink

[Tapori]

2 hours ago, Jack's Creation said:

"...

That's what I find interesting about echo-chamber Millenials, they appear to have no understanding of the way that there cheerleading of 'no platforming" action's against Free-Speech could rebound on them.

They seem very naiive in their trust of the State.

 

i have tried in vain to get them to understand they are being pimped. Conversation to my academic millenial mate: when we left uni it wasn't like this.

"So this no platforming nonsense will be the death of us on the left. If we can't debate and win debates then shouldn't we improve our discourse and knowledge? what are we scared of? We accuse others of being wrong but we won't listen or reflect on other people's points"

Yea but it's freedom of choice isn't it? 

What, when Julie Bindel is being no platformed and Peter Tachell is being told he won't be heard?

Yeah but she was transphobic, and he was Islamophobic so the the speakers decided they would protest by not debating

Ok, but they weren't there to debate those issues, they were debating something else. i would argue that freedom of speech in debates is paramount in developing your own logic and reason and views and that you have to admit that even the most vile person may be right about one thing and that one thing may be pivotal on any given topic. Are you against freedom of speech?

No i am for it. i see no problem with freedom of speech and no-platforming.

TL;DR. - If any of me lefty mates starts no-platforming you, just show them how the ADL tried to defame the legend Noam Chomsky who defended the right of a right-winger jew-hating speaker to speak at a debate with Chomsky himself.

tfw you never thought you'd see Rod Liddle fight for Julie Bindel. What a timeline we live in.

 

[Jack's Creation]

The old adage that people with nothing to say don't value free speech would appear to apply to Millenials more than any other generation I interact with. All their ideas appear to be other peoples . Generation Z's that I know, seem much more laid back.

[Tapori]

2 hours ago, Jack's Creation said:

The old adage that people with nothing to say don't value free speech would appear to apply to Millenials more than any other generation I interact with. All their ideas appear to be other peoples . Generation Z's that I know, seem much more laid back.

Well-fed people debating navel-gazing matters. The Century of The Self. All that's happened is that politics has now been given the Nathan Barley treatment. The new-era of idiots were confined to other areas have now infected activism, academia and politics. Idiots being people with too much, time, money and comfort and no real talent finding identity through purely onsumerism and self-created monikers in politics/activism. Identity and self-are badges now. Top trumps. Gender, sex, social status, activism, politics,  the more complex the more apparently interesting. Superficial posturing. Just don'rt actually question this. Feelings matter more and reality is based on that alone now. 1+1= 3. If you disagree you're not thinking about the spectrum of numbers and are being ignorant.

Edited September 10, 2017 by Tapori

[Jack's Creation]

+ 1 for the Nathan Barley reference.