Nationwide HPI(Aug 17) -0.1%

[Lord D'arcy Pew]

2 hours ago, Si1 said:

Surely not. But but former BoE committee member David Miles came up with somebody else's limited model results and proved that house prices should hit 15x earnings.

 

Perhaps he thinks average house price will go down to £100,000, and average income to drop to £6,660?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

How much did they revise last months down ?

 

 

[Bland Unsight]

15 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

This! Look at the right hand edge, showing the cumulative growth for each year. 2013 was highest, 2014 to 2016 gradually get lower.

2017 is going to be lowest yet... Possibly negative.

A bit more speculation. There's no blip anywhere around the announcement of London Help-to-buy equity loans (announced November 2015 in the Autumn Statement). The property markets of London and the South East (which make up a big share of the entire UK market) may be being driven by speculation, unanchored to earnings, at levels that borrowers anchored to earnings can't even reach with the benefit of a 40% interest-free loan from the government. Not only is it fragile. It has a long way to fall.

Also, as opposed to 2008, we're a decade further into the demographic turn as the boomers start to draw down on their accumulated wealth, including their housing wealth (the UK baby boom has two peaks, the middle of the entire cohort is, obvs, between those peaks at about 1955, turning 63 this year. The first peak are about 70 today).

Source

 

Edited August 29, 2017 by Bland Unsight

[Blod]

14 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

I think what it does show is that the market is more fragile today than it has been at any point in the last four years. That doesn't mean a crash is upon us or inevitable. It does mean that the odds of the whole mess tipping into reverse are better than they've been for a while.

I would go further than the market being more fragile than the last four years. Never in history have CBs propped up the economy and hence the housing market to such an extent. They know further QE and Zirp will undermine economies whilst seeing no easy way to unwind from them. They have no tools left.

[Scramz]

1 minute ago, Blod said:

I would go further than the market being more fragile than the last four years. Never in history have CBs propped up the economy and hence the housing market to such an extent. They know further QE and Zirp will undermine economies whilst seeing no easy way to unwind from them. They have no tools left.

There is always another tool in the box somewhere, with this gov.

[rantnrave]

2 minutes ago, Blod said:

I would go further than the market being more fragile than the last four years. Never in history have CBs propped up the economy and hence the housing market to such an extent. They know further QE and Zirp will undermine economies whilst seeing no easy way to unwind from them. They have no tools left.

This month's fall has also taken place with props such as Term Funding Scheme and Funding for Lending Scheme still in place. Both those are however due to end within six months.

[Blod]

Just now, Scramz said:

There is always another tool in the box somewhere, with this gov.

Politically speaking no. Any measure that a government would now chose to use will have an obvious negative downside. The Overton window is now so tilted against HPI they are boxed in.

 

[Princekie]

10 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

A bit more speculation. There's no blip anywhere around the announcement of London Help-to-buy equity loans (announced November 2015 in the Autumn Statement). The property markets of London and the South East (which make up a big share of the entire UK market) may be being driven by speculation, unanchored to earnings, at levels that borrowers anchored to earnings can't even reach with the benefit of a 40% interest-free loan from the government. Not only is it fragile. It has a long way to fall.

Also, as opposed to 2008, we're a decade further into the demographic turn as the boomers start to draw down on their accumulated wealth, including their housing wealth (the UK baby boom has two peaks, the middle of the entire cohort is, obvs, between those peaks at about 1955, turning 63 this year. The first peak are about 70 today).

 

Very good post. 

Demographics really is destiny. I've been arguing this for years, against the "property always goes upppppp" brigade (mainly older people).

[Blod]

4 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

This month's fall has also taken place with props such as Term Funding Scheme and Funding for Lending Scheme still in place. Both those are however due to end within six months.

Exactly. Both these measure work to make more money available but don't address the hurdle of the lending criteria. Any attempt to soften that would be instantly labelled as unwise and risky. 

[GreenDevil]

35 minutes ago, Scramz said:

There is always another tool in the box somewhere, with this gov.

There are 652 tools in the government of that you can be sure, and the biggest tool of all is in no 10. 

Edited August 29, 2017 by GreenDevil

[AdamoMucci]

More anti-Brexit propaganda from sky news.

 

Quote

The building society reported a 0.1% fall month-on-month in prices in August but said the annual rate of growth slowed to 2.1% from 2.9% in July.

It cited several likely factors for the drop - top of these being the Brexit-linked cooling in the UK economy witnessed this year.

 

Nationwide do not mention Brexit once in the report. Sky really makes it sound like Nationwide's top reason for HPI slowdown is explicitly Brexit. Sky are as good as lying.

Every single day it is one or two anti-Brexit propaganda stories. Every single day.

When I was young I could never have imagined the world works like this.

 

[rantnrave]

6 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

More anti-Brexit propaganda from sky news.

 

 

Nationwide do not mention Brexit once in the report. Sky really makes it sound like Nationwide's top reason for HPI slowdown is explicitly Brexit. Sky are as good as lying.

Every single day it is one or two anti-Brexit propaganda stories. Every single day.

When I was young I could never have imagined the world works like this.

 

Complain. I've had the BBC change online articles within an hour after responding to evidence of bias / factually incorrect material. Let them know that someone is reading their work and keeping them accountable:

newsonline@sky.uk

James.Sillars@sky.uk

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

13 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

More anti-Brexit propaganda from sky news.

 

 

 

Ahh, you've noticed that too.

 

SkyNews on a daily basis run a anti-BrExit article.  I'd cancel Sky if I was stupid enough to have it.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

17 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

More anti-Brexit propaganda from sky news.

 

 

Nationwide do not mention Brexit once in the report. Sky really makes it sound like Nationwide's top reason for HPI slowdown is explicitly Brexit. Sky are as good as lying.

Every single day it is one or two anti-Brexit propaganda stories. Every single day.

When I was young I could never have imagined the world works like this.

 

Have you not seen the world wars ?

 

The establishment think they can use the NEWS to control the people...and they can.

 

How do you convince several million people to go and die so that you can maintain your life of privilege ?

 

Everything screams 2nd referrendum to me but perhaps they still underestimate the power of the internet.  

 

I'd not be surprised if all this pro-hpc propaganda is to scare the old into voting to stay next time.

 

Edited August 29, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[hi5lo5]

3 hours ago, Bland Unsight said:

A bit more speculation. There's no blip anywhere around the announcement of London Help-to-buy equity loans (announced November 2015 in the Autumn Statement). The property markets of London and the South East (which make up a big share of the entire UK market) may be being driven by speculation, unanchored to earnings, at levels that borrowers anchored to earnings can't even reach with the benefit of a 40% interest-free loan from the government. Not only is it fragile. It has a long way to fall.

Also, as opposed to 2008, we're a decade further into the demographic turn as the boomers start to draw down on their accumulated wealth, including their housing wealth (the UK baby boom has two peaks, the middle of the entire cohort is, obvs, between those peaks at about 1955, turning 63 this year. The first peak are about 70 today).

Source

 

Great post... But raises a different question. Obviously the cohort trying to downsize would be competing with the FTBers. Will that have a direct impact on prices of entry level homes?(hate to use the word ladder). Would the volume be sufficient enough to keep the wheel spinning? 

 

[Bland Unsight]

2 hours ago, hi5lo5 said:

Great post... But raises a different question. Obviously the cohort trying to downsize would be competing with the FTBers. Will that have a direct impact on prices of entry level homes?(hate to use the word ladder). Would the volume be sufficient enough to keep the wheel spinning? 

There are lots of them who aren't competing with anybody. Look at the state of this:

Source: DWP Research into mortgage borrowing and claiming Support for Mortgage Interest in retirement, August 2017

Notice how the number of under-50s, who have a bit of time to play with (and possibly stronger earnings), with proper 'naked' interest-only loans has fallen sharply since 2012 (presumably as they switch to repayment) but in the 50-59 late boomer cohort (can't go wrong with bricks and mortar, mate) you have an increase between 2012 and 2014. The number of these bozos has almost doubled since 2005.

(The boomers with their talk of feckless millennials need to stop drinking the Old Spice aftershave and inspect the beam in their own eye before boring on about avocado toast, or i-phones, or whatever form the latest piece of meaningless anecdotal idiocy they imagine to be the mote in the eye of the millennials.)

Edited August 29, 2017 by Bland Unsight

[Guest]

7 hours ago, durhamborn said:

Dont worry,the secular top is almost certain to be in now.The prices wont be revisited for a couple of decades at least inflation adjusted.Big falls ahead.Ignore the numbers they spin out.Step back and look at the picture.In macro terms,its the worst picture iv ever seen.Its about to get interesting i think.

That's my take durham, I no longer see how it is mathematically possible to keep the plates spinning, though I still know what's coming and after watching dozens of monthly housing data  come and go this one threw me, only a tiny bit.

I think I am getting ahead of myself, business is good, I always have  a high risk investment of between 7% to 15%  for fun as much as anything else, mine is bitcoin so I have has a wonderful past few months. I just dared to start looking at a few smallholdings and was buying those hens, goats and pigs a little too early.

I can wait

[hi5lo5]

45 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

There are lots of them who aren't competing with anybody. Look at the state of this:

Source: DWP Research into mortgage borrowing and claiming Support for Mortgage Interest in retirement, August 2017

Notice how the number of under-50s, who have a bit of time to play with (and possibly stronger earnings), with proper 'naked' interest-only loans has fallen sharply since 2012 (presumably as they switch to repayment) but in the 50-59 late boomer cohort (can't go wrong with bricks and mortar, mate) you have an increase between 2012 and 2014. The number of these bozos has almost doubled since 2005.

(The boomers with their talk of feckless millennials need to stop drinking the Old Spice aftershave and inspect the beam in their own eye before boring on about avocado toast, or i-phones, or whatever form the latest piece of meaningless anecdotal idiocy they imagine to be the mote in the eye of the millennials.)

Thanks bland. That explains.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 hours ago, Scramz said:

There is always another tool in the box somewhere, with this gov.

There's no end of tools in Westminster

[Kilham]

7 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

There's no end of tools in Westminster

This forum could really use an upvote system.

[Guest]

I wondered whether IO mortgages have been banned... A quick search on Money Supermarket found products from only 3 suppliers... Newbury, Holmesdale & Cumberland. Looks like most banks & building societies have stopped them.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

I wondered whether IO mortgages have been banned... A quick search on Money Supermarket found products from only 3 suppliers... Newbury, Holmesdale & Cumberland. Looks like most banks & building societies have stopped them.

Did you say you were a BTL portfolio owner from Kent ?

[stuckmojo]

IO without a parallel vehicle to cover the capital is financial suicide for most of the ignorant folk who look at it only on a monthly basis. Chances are these people don't actually realize they are not paying off the debt at all. 

If you're a clever investor I can see why this would be a risky but potentially rewarding strategy, but for the common folk I can't see a stable product beating the interest rates charge on the mortgage anyway. 

 

[spyguy]

23 hours ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

Who's to say that the FTBs buying houses have average salaries and an average (10% ish) deposit? They could be big earners with huge BOMAD gifts/loans.

FTBers are most likely to be average i.e. 60% earn the local median wage or less.

FTB buying houses tend to be in their 40s now.

At the current HP/E ration 10% is a p1ss in the ocean.

[spyguy]

21 hours ago, Princekie said:

By rights, activity should be absolutely dire up north. Nearly every single day has been constantly bad weather. Heavy rain followed by heavy rain. Not exactly Summer.

They are.

Same as areas outside ofLondon/SE.

Pick a post code. Put it in houseprices.io and compare the number of trasnaction to the number 12 years ago.

On current trends most people over 50 will only be leaving their house in a box.