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hi5lo5

Nationwide HPI(Aug 17) -0.1%

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10 minutes ago, hi5lo5 said:

  Annual house price growth slows to 2.1%, from 2.9% in July

 Modest 0.1% fall month-on-month

Stamp duty revenues rise to new highs 

Lol...

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2017/Aug_2017.pdf

So what they're saying is that the **** has fallen out of the bottom end of the market then?

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14 minutes ago, This time said:

So what they're saying is that the **** has fallen out of the bottom end of the market then?

Surely not. But but former BoE committee member David Miles came up with somebody else's limited model results and proved that house prices should hit 15x earnings.

The yoof clearly need government props to help buy now whilst prices are still clearly affordable.

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Average salary take home pay is about £1800 p/m, so Nationwide think that first time buyers in Wales, Scotland, North, North West and Yorkshire are spending just £360 per month (or less) on mortgage payments? 

I'm sure there's something fundamental I'm missing but that ain't adding up, unless they're counting couples both earning 27k per year. Or it's mortgages over 40 years.

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2 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Average salary take home pay is about £1800 p/m, so Nationwide think that first time buyers in Wales, Scotland, North, North West and Yorkshire are spending just £360 per month (or less) on mortgage payments? 

I'm sure there's something fundamental I'm missing but that ain't adding up, unless they're counting couples both earning 27k per year. Or it's mortgages over 40 years.

Comment I hear most from colleagues in their 20s is that if only they could get the deposit together, a mortgage would cost half of their current monthly rent.

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17 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Surely not. But but former BoE committee member David Miles came up with somebody else's limited model results and proved that house prices should hit 15x earnings.

The yoof clearly need government props to help buy now whilst prices are still clearly affordable.

Yes..no doubt the prices are affordable. If thier model is any good, I am betting on Organ trading to be legal as most millennials have to sell organs to get on to the so called ladder.

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28 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Average salary take home pay is about £1800 p/m, so Nationwide think that first time buyers in Wales, Scotland, North, North West and Yorkshire are spending just £360 per month (or less) on mortgage payments? 

I'm sure there's something fundamental I'm missing but that ain't adding up, unless they're counting couples both earning 27k per year. Or it's mortgages over 40 years.

Who's to say that the FTBs buying houses have average salaries and an average (10% ish) deposit? They could be big earners with huge BOMAD gifts/loans.

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2 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

Who's to say that the FTBs buying houses have average salaries and an average (10% ish) deposit? They could be big earners with huge BOMAD gifts/loans.

FTBers today certainly aint what they used to be!

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16 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

Who's to say that the FTBs buying houses have average salaries and an average (10% ish) deposit? They could be big earners with huge BOMAD gifts/loans.

Nationwide basing their report on 80% LTV, are FTBs really just buying 1 bed flats at age 30? Maybe I have to drastically lower my expectations for home ownership.

Edited by Barnsey

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11 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Nationwide basing their report on 80% LTV, are FTBs really just buying 1 bed flats at age 30? Maybe I have to drastically lower my expectations for home ownership.

That graph on the report doesnt really say much - is that the cost of mortgage repayments for FTBs taking out just 80% LTV mortgages? Or 80% LTV and below, so 75%, 70% etc etc?

Whatever it reflects, it doesnt detract from the fact that only rich FTBs (i.e. huge salaries) are buying ... doesnt mean all prospective FTBs with normal salaries could afford to buy.

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36 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Nationwide basing their report on 80% LTV, are FTBs really just buying 1 bed flats at age 30? Maybe I have to drastically lower my expectations for home ownership.

Wouldn't surprise me if its FTB buying 1 bed flats , if they need something bigger its because they have kids try getting a mortgage as a FTB  when you have  outgoings for childcare they don't wana know 

 

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2 hours ago, hi5lo5 said:

  Annual house price growth slows to 2.1%, from 2.9% in July

 Modest 0.1% fall month-on-month

Stamp duty revenues rise to new highs 

Lol...

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2017/Aug_2017.pdf

I just don;t get it.

Every logical bone in my body tells me that we should be at cruise speed now and seeing -1% ish falls per month, not 0.1%

None of this stacks up.

Well Halifax is out soon and then there is always next month, I am just getting p***ed off with this.

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the most valuable piece of information is the record on Stamp duty collected. 

I can't see it happening because of FTB or OO. The number of transactions dropped, but the collect is higher. So it is still BTLers who have no clue about what is coming for them.

Good, I'd rather see those people being gutted than a poor decision made by a FTB or OO.

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2 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

Well Halifax is out soon and then there is always next month, I am just getting p***ed off with this.

Just? Don't rush into things; it's only been two decades of runaway HPI so far. Don't get carried away with your indignation at this early stage and flame out before it gets interesting.

Cat-Jumps-Off-Car-in-Snow-Fail.gif

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I find this Neal Hudson graph very useful for washing the seasonality of these monthly changes out and giving a sense of how this year's figures compare to preceding years.

DIYPBe0WAAAvmFr.jpg:large

Source: the twitters

Edited by Bland Unsight

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12 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

I just don;t get it.

Every logical bone in my body tells me that we should be at cruise speed now and seeing -1% ish falls per month, not 0.1%

None of this stacks up.

Well Halifax is out soon and then there is always next month, I am just getting p***ed off with this.

Dont worry,the secular top is almost certain to be in now.The prices wont be revisited for a couple of decades at least inflation adjusted.Big falls ahead.Ignore the numbers they spin out.Step back and look at the picture.In macro terms,its the worst picture iv ever seen.Its about to get interesting i think.

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7 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

I find this Neal Hudson graph very useful for washing the seasonality of these monthly changes out and giving a sense of how this year's figures compare to preceding years.

DIYPBe0WAAAvmFr.jpg:large

Source: the twitters

Nice chart but doesn't really show anything indicating a crash. Just that price rise every year in the first six months then flatten off.

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23 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

I just don;t get it.

Every logical bone in my body tells me that we should be at cruise speed now and seeing -1% ish falls per month, not 0.1%

None of this stacks up.

Well Halifax is out soon and then there is always next month, I am just getting p***ed off with this.

Patience dear wotsthat, everyone thinks everything is awesome right now, credit is still easy to come by, IRs on the floor, record high employment. All fundamentals right now for prices to go sky high, and yet they are levelling out, if not falling. As Durhamborn rightly points out, we're very very close to the secular top.

What on earth happens when things take a turn, IRs creep up or credit eligibility maxed out, unemployment creeps up when zombie businesses finally get caught out...

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12 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Patience dear wotsthat, everyone thinks everything is awesome right now, credit is still easy to come by, IRs on the floor, record high employment. All fundamentals right now for prices to go sky high, and yet they are levelling out, if not falling. As Durhamborn rightly points out, we're very very close to the secular top.

What on earth happens when things take a turn, IRs creep up or credit eligibility maxed out, unemployment creeps up when zombie businesses finally get caught out...

I've found myself getting more positive (apart from the odd middle of the night desperation session!).

I've started saying to my kids "when we have our own big garden we'll have a nature pond" etc etc. Up until now we've been careful not to raise expectations.

My wife whilst very supportive just can't see falls of more than a few percent. I look at a £300k dive and tell her that'll be £150k at some point... She laughs/swears.

We're a few miles west of Brighton so prices here have been dragged up by London. Should mean they fall first and fast though! :)

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27 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

Nice chart but doesn't really show anything indicating a crash. Just that price rise every year in the first six months then flatten off.

I agree that it doesn't show "anything indicating a crash", but then I don't think that you can see a crash coming. As to what it does show, I disagree with the idea that it just shows that prices "rise every year in the first six months then flatten off".

The most striking thing is that they earliest year Hudson includes in the data (2013) is the only year that doesn't fit that pattern. And what happened at or around August 2013? One thing that happened is that Help to Buy equity loans announced in March 2013 started to make their presence felt in the market (though their effect on sentiment probably more important than their contribution as a demand-side subsidy).

Likewise you can see YoY HPI falling back gradually between 2013 and today (it takes a long time to stop an oil tanker).

I think what it does show is that the market is more fragile today than it has been at any point in the last four years. That doesn't mean a crash is upon us or inevitable. It does mean that the odds of the whole mess tipping into reverse are better than they've been for a while.

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I think we all have our internal battles, moments of despair when you're expecting things to normalise and they linger on, friends & colleagues HPI comments, and then moments of optimism when you take a step back and view it from the outside.

Don't get me wrong, we should all have a back up plan, but given the current state of affairs I think this could be the big one, we're back to an affordability crisis even with the unprecedented props since the "great recession", which might not look so great in comparison with what comes next. We are quite possibly staring at a massive asset deflation bust, one which few believe can happen as they've never seen it or even heard of it, the crash of the 90's could be a possiblity, and again few want to think back to then. But everything is looking rather deflationary, as though we're at peak everything.

We're actually overdue a cyclical recession, due to the CB props, but when it hits you're not going to have the BTL and foreign buyers pick up the pieces like 10 years ago, without them in the market post next crash, who knows what the potential falls could be?

Edited by Barnsey

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4 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

 

Likewise you can see YoY HPI falling back gradually between 2013 and today (it takes a long time to stop an oil tanker).

This! Look at the right hand edge, showing the cumulative growth for each year. 2013 was highest, 2014 to 2016 gradually get lower.

2017 is going to be lowest yet... Possibly negative.

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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