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fru-gal

The Tories need a millennial manifesto

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Above all, increasing housing affordability means increasing housing supply. Prominent naysayers abound, but the housing market is no less driven by supply and demand than any other market. If you think that 10,000 new luxury houses make no difference then ask yourself what would happen if we demolished 10,000 houses at the top end of the London market. Do we really think those people would just up sticks and move to New York, Paris or Hong Kong? Or would they bid up the prices — and rents — of houses lower down the chain.

What would happen, is that the land would immediately be resold to a developer and the houses would be replaced in short order, because you cannot demolish land any more than you can build it.

Demolishing houses has no effect whatsoever on the supply of land, however foreign 'investors' and landlords certainly do add to the demand. 

 

Edited by DrBuyToLeech

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The Tories have launched a Momentum like movement called Activate to try and engage young people into spivism at all costs, cough cough, I mean into the Conservative Party. Considering their entire life blood is to rinse young people and get them into debt slavery through education or housing it's going to a hard lie, I mean hard sell. 

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What I would do is make the open university free, make much more course places at the OE, and make sure that it cannot be considered inferior to any but the absolute top UK universities.

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the cons cant make the young happy without destroying their main voter base. All the cons will do is try and broaden their base slightly further down the age ranges, so they will try and hit 40 year olds and late 30's best they can. Those who have little compared to the boomers but have more than the milenials. 

Something like a 30-50 Y/O help to buy, based on years national insurance contributions or some such. Special mortgage interest relief for that age range. 

They cant impress the young without killing their golden goose of the boomers. They might even go full into the boomers, in the hope they can win every last one of them. Spin it as 'no new building to save the countryside' or some such bollax. The cons are in a tricky place now, their voter base is dieing off, only a few motived young people can cost them the government.

The next election will basically be a young vs old election. Labour probably fully on the youth side, cons going for boomers and anyone over 30. pray for a cold winter!

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The old Vs young arguement is alright, but if I was a Con my main concern would be getting as many people 'on the ladder' as possible. What they need is a bloody good HPC. 

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11 minutes ago, Si1 said:

all of the above, the tories have dug their own electoral grave, idiots.

 

They used to say the one thing the conservatives were good at were doing whatever it took to stay in power - e.g.  stab their leader when necessary.  Can't see any of that.  Comical, ever since they elected Cameron to out Blair Blair, even when his sun was setting.  Bunch of generals fighting the last war.

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Just now, Fence said:

They used to say the one thing the conservatives were good at were doing whatever it took to stay in power - e.g.  stab their leader when necessary.  Can't see any of that.  Comical, ever since they elected Cameron to out Blair Blair, even when his sun was setting.  Bunch of generals fighting the last war.

It's a related scenario to the way they lost the belief and votes of the North in the 80s - yeah they won over the voters of middle England and the SE/London in the new consumer economy, but they were so callous with the lives of people affected by the decline of northern industries. They have repeated that callousness recently with the post 1970s generations, for short term political gain, to win the 2015 election off the back of it. Very myopic, and certainly deserving of paying a price over the longer term. The nasty party have doubled down on nastiness.

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The Tories can't offer a high (and rising) general house price level to older homeowners and reasonably priced homeownership to the tens of millions of young workers coming up behind them. It's one or the other. The article completely fails to acknowledge this.

Edited by Dorkins

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Demographics are a massive headache for them, but being more closely linked with to neo-libral economic  wont help either - do they not only annoy the boomers but their party donors too.

Labour have a 'stay of execution' for now but only for now.

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1 hour ago, Fence said:

They used to say the one thing the conservatives were good at were doing whatever it took to stay in power - e.g.  stab their leader when necessary.  Can't see any of that.  Comical, ever since they elected Cameron to out Blair Blair, even when his sun was setting.  Bunch of generals fighting the last war.

The rule for the conservative party used to be that no person, no policy, no principle was more important than power.  William Hague changed the leadership rules so that if the parliamentary party couldn't agree on one candidate then the whole party would have a vote.  That gave them Iain Duncan Smith and so after that it had to be coronations.

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9 hours ago, Si1 said:

It's a related scenario to the way they lost the belief and votes of the North in the 80s - yeah they won over the voters of middle England and the SE/London in the new consumer economy, but they were so callous with the lives of people affected by the decline of northern industries. They have repeated that callousness recently with the post 1970s generations, for short term political gain, to win the 2015 election off the back of it. Very myopic, and certainly deserving of paying a price over the longer term. The nasty party have doubled down on nastiness.

Might open a split that doesn't favour Labour. The callousness you refer to wasn't confined to the North. Plenty of jobs lost and factories closed south of Birmingham.

In fact working in a privately owned factory at the time for Lucas we applauded the withdrawal of the state teat for industries that should of been slimmed years before, why was our taxes supporting that? The Tories were then very in tune with the mood

The problem now isn't that they  are too nasty - they aren't hard enough on foreign aid, benefits, tax credits, NHS abuse and so on. If they were they would have the resources to really help the millennial generation 

However and it is a bitter pill it seems for millenials - there is a significant minority who appear lazy, self entitled p***** but it is increasingly pc not to mention that 

On the other hand the boomer retiring at 50 on a government pension and going on cruises is almost an official stereotype when the proportion is probably about the same

whatever the question though Corbyn, Abbot, Mcdonnell et al are not the solution 

 

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31 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said:

Might open a split that doesn't favour Labour. The callousness you refer to wasn't confined to the North. Plenty of jobs lost and factories closed south of Birmingham.

In fact working in a privately owned factory at the time for Lucas we applauded the withdrawal of the state teat for industries that should of been slimmed years before, why was our taxes supporting that? The Tories were then very in tune with the mood

The problem now isn't that they  are too nasty - they aren't hard enough on foreign aid, benefits, tax credits, NHS abuse and so on. If they were they would have the resources to really help the millennial generation 

However and it is a bitter pill it seems for millenials - there is a significant minority who appear lazy, self entitled p***** but it is increasingly pc not to mention that 

On the other hand the boomer retiring at 50 on a government pension and going on cruises is almost an official stereotype when the proportion is probably about the same

whatever the question though Corbyn, Abbot, Mcdonnell et al are not the solution 

 

Agreed. I think any difference between my point and the meat of yours is in semantics. 

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33 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said:

  

However and it is a bitter pill it seems for millenials - there is a significant minority who appear lazy, self entitled p***** but it is increasingly pc not to mention that 

 

Nevertheless, the pensioner benefit bill is much higher than the working age benefit bill. And it's not means tested against their massive houses!

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I'll never forgive Gidiot for FLS and Help to Buy. However, I think he knew what he was doing though with gaming a 2015 vote as the last hurrah for HPI-loving Boomers and then, with S24 etc, trying to get FTBs housed for a potential 2020 vote. Interesting to see what he would have done if Brexit hadn't come along - he would have known the demographics weren't favourable to the Tories if the status quo had remained the same. Doubt Hammond is anywhere near as shrewd politically.

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George Osborne, 2013: "“Hopefully we will get a little housing boom and everyone will be happy as property values go up."

Philip Hammond. 2017: "“Hopefully we will get a little housing crash and the Millennials will be happy as property values go down”  ?

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well the policies do seem to be cracking down more on HPI, or at least the multi-BTL, and second homes areas.

Also they are gifting monies to FTB in HTB-ISA and lifetime-ISA.

Seem to have done both in such a fashion as to improve home ownership amongst the young as time goes on, and as time goes on crack down on the leveraged morons.

My war-chest is slowly growing, and BTL's are slowly being forced to sell. They have done it in such a long drawn out way as to try and not spook the boomers or cause a house price crash.

They want houses to remain static or fall slightly, and basically convert BTL to FTB without causing too much pain. We would all like to see this process sped up. 

i struggle to see how the cons can win again now, unless they ramp up the BTL crackdown and throw money at FTB's even more. 

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3 hours ago, Si1 said:

Nevertheless, the pensioner benefit bill is much higher than the working age benefit bill. And it's not means tested against their massive houses!

Fair point but its a bit Jeremy C to say the majority of pensioners live in massive houses

But one way  or the other these pensioners contributed to their pension - the welfare state was much smaller and pre tax credits.

But its out of kilter - I agree. I have taken a path from right to left centrist as I have got older which is against the norm but every so often some complete labour idiot tries really hard to push me back into a Thatcherite 80's way of thinking

 

Edited by Greg Bowman

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17 hours ago, reddog said:

What I would do is make the open university free, make much more course places at the OE, and make sure that it cannot be considered inferior to any but the absolute top UK universities.

That's an excellent idea.

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16 hours ago, Fence said:

They used to say the one thing the conservatives were good at were doing whatever it took to stay in power - e.g.  stab their leader when necessary.  Can't see any of that.  Comical, ever since they elected Cameron to out Blair Blair, even when his sun was setting.  Bunch of generals fighting the last war.

Yes, they used to be good at the short-term stuff to get from election to election. 

What they failed to foresee is that the effect of policies such as Right To Buy have ultimately had the opposite effect of what was originally intended, with fewer people able to buy their own home now since the mid eighties.

 

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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