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Bruce Banner

Help to Buy underpins housebuilders’ success

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https://www.ft.com/content/d02187fe-880c-11e7-8bb1-5ba57d47eff7

Searches related to On Friday 4 August, the share prices of the UK’s major housebuilders suddenly dropped. Between 7am and 8.30am, £1.3bn was wiped off the combined market value of the five largest companies.

There were rumours — which ultimately proved unfounded — the government was preparing to withdraw or dramatically scale back its flagship measure to support the housing market: the Help to Buy scheme where the state provides low-interest loans to first time buyers and others looking to purchase newly built homes.

Edited by Bruce Banner

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41 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

It was only a few weeks ago that I saw that some builder had announced price increases of 12% - 'because of high demand  and government support via help to buy.  

So much for the arrogant and dismissive reply I had from Grant Schapps (IIRC) after I'd emailed my MP about HTB and he'd forwarded it - saying there was no reason to suppose it would prop up or increase prices, or WTTE. 

Edited by Mrs Bear
Typo

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the problems and complications that that arise from this outrageous distortion of the market may bring the government down...watch, wait and see..

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It's true the government obviously deny it. Some on here do too they cite section 24. But let's face it the government has shown it is only interested in supporting prices. Their core vote and house building mates deserve it.

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15 hours ago, Mrs Bear said:

It was only a few weeks ago that I saw that some builder had announced price increases of 12% - 'because of high demand  and government support via help to buy.  

So much for the arrogant and dismissive reply I had from Grant Schapps (IIRC) after I'd emailed my MP about HTB and he'd forwarded it - saying there was no reason to suppose it would prop up or increase prices, or WTTE. 

You should request a comment on when HTB will be abandoned from Alok Sharma the current Housing minister citing Grant Shapps' comments and the increased profits being made by the house builders.

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It could be argued that Help to Buy is underpinning the entire economy.

Firstly, by direct support for the house builders, and secondly by propping-up house prices and the balance sheets of the banks and building societies.

Where this will all end is anyone's guess but I'm sure it won't be pretty.

 

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4 hours ago, Blod said:

You should request a comment on when HTB will be abandoned from Alok Sharma the current Housing minister citing Grant Shapps' comments and the increased profits being made by the house builders.

I've probably deleted it - it was so long ago, shortly after HTB was first announced. 

 

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2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

It could be argued that Help to Buy is underpinning the entire economy.

Firstly, by direct support for the house builders, and secondly by propping-up house prices and the balance sheets of the banks and building societies.

Where this will all end is anyone's guess but I'm sure it won't be pretty.

The view that 'propping-up house prices' is a good thing is currently being openly challenged by the public. They are suspicious as their offspring can't afford to buy and have started to wonder who, if any one will be able to buy their homes to allow them to downsize and retire. Their dichotomy is that having been told 'your house is your pension' they find no one able to afford to fund their pension by buying their home.

Edited by Blod

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20 hours ago, Blod said:

They are suspicious as their offspring can't afford to buy and have started to wonder who, if any one will be able to buy their homes to allow them to downsize and retire. Their dichotomy is that having been told 'your house is your pension' they find no one able to afford to fund their pension by buying their home.

You can sell anything at the right price, just don't listen to thee greedy EA scum.

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From another thread...a link to a London "property expert" also seems to be a view backed by the Bank of England....

"Andrew warns that isn’t just something for estate agents to worry about. He says, “Should turnover continue at these present levels then there is going to be a significant glut of new build property languishing un-sold on the open market which will be damaging to the short term fortunes of London housebuilders, probably causing them to ‘mothball’ future schemes which in turn could have a real negative impact on employment in the construction industry and finally hamper the wider economy. “ "

And this is the situation on the "open market" with a huge 40% taxpayer subsidy. It is obvious that prices can only be maintained by an escalation of government subsidies to home owners. And that is just to keep prices static. It is ironic that the free market Tories hated the idea of EU farming subsidies that paid farmers billions in order to maintain scarcity of food and drive up prices. The same Tories have applied the same model of government subsidies to drive up house prices and protect builders profits. 

 

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1 hour ago, insertcoinstocontinue said:

I've heard it mentioned that HTB will be written off for anyone who has HTB. I really wouldn't rule that out....

Well, most people with HTB loans of up to 240k would only be able to repay if their property has increased in value , enabling them to remortgage and release equity. That has been the assumption of the whole ponzi. If prices don't rise by 40% in 5 years then those loans won't be repaid. Now government may decide to make sure prices rise, by increasing HTB.....they will probably think that is cheaper than writing off the original HTB loans. So I expect the HTB % and maximum purchase price to escalate, perhaps to FTB property price of 1 million, with 600k underwritten by the taxpayer. That might keep the system rolling for 5 or 6 years. 

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2 hours ago, ingermany said:

Well, most people with HTB loans of up to 240k would only be able to repay if their property has increased in value , enabling them to remortgage and release equity. That has been the assumption of the whole ponzi. If prices don't rise by 40% in 5 years then those loans won't be repaid. Now government may decide to make sure prices rise, by increasing HTB.....they will probably think that is cheaper than writing off the original HTB loans. So I expect the HTB % and maximum purchase price to escalate, perhaps to FTB property price of 1 million, with 600k underwritten by the taxpayer. That might keep the system rolling for 5 or 6 years. 

If they go down that path (which I'm happy to say I doubt), I would guess the end-point after 5 or 6 years will be total loss of faith in the currency. We will have to beg both to rejoin the EU and to adopt the euro: the latter may be refused officially, but could happen anyway, as we will need a medium of exchange not subject to hyperinflation. The US dollar is used in Zimbabwe for the same reason.

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1 hour ago, Toast said:

If they go down that path (which I'm happy to say I doubt), I would guess the end-point after 5 or 6 years will be total loss of faith in the currency. We will have to beg both to rejoin the EU and to adopt the euro: the latter may be refused officially, but could happen anyway, as we will need a medium of exchange not subject to hyperinflation. The US dollar is used in Zimbabwe for the same reason.

I agree. I was just pointing to the path we are currently on and where it would logically lead.  Once they started bail outs and subsidies it's hard to see a way of withdrawing them. It's pretty clear that 40% HTB is not enough for builders, bankers, property experts and some Conservative politicians, like Rees-Mogg.  

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The 40% HTB in London is very dangerous because 55% mortgage will be based on 5 times of the salary and after five years when government support is gone then person will be paying for 95% which will be how many times of salary?

Edited by suresh786

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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