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TheCountOfNowhere

Yet another profit warning....

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Chickens coming home to... 

I think this profit warning is interesting following on from the Provident Financial debacle. People have been maxed out with cheap subprime loans to buy TV's, (Am I the only one in the UK who doesn't have a 55 inch plus TV?), huge fridges, etc, etc, but you think that the likes of Currys would be profitting from all of us. But it seems those dodgy Provident loans are going back a long time.

I think we are going to see more of these warnings - Next, Debenhams and Marks will be on the list IMPO.

I have been following the US retail market with stores like JC Penney and Sears - once giants of US retail - now on their knees. Many smaller operations already having gone bust. People on both sides of the Atlantic are screwed by debt and high houses prices means, well, you know the story.

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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

173.75GBX53.80 (23.64%)

Just bear in mind that profit warnings in the past year for some retailers - Next and Tesco are two tha spring to mind - turned out to be lows and great buying opportunities for considerable bounces in the 6 months ahead.

Christmas is coming so this stock SHOULD see a rise through to the end of the year. There will be pleny of buy the dippers for it in the coming hours methinks.

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3 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Just bear in mind that profit warnings in the past year for some retailers - Next and Tesco are two tha spring to mind - turned out to be lows and great buying opportunities for considerable bounces in the 6 months ahead.

Christmas is coming so this stock SHOULD see a rise through to the end of the year. There will be pleny of buy the dippers for it in the coming hours methinks.

Provident financial nearly up 50% since I thought of buying at 450 ( now at 687.00GB ) .....hindsight is a wonderful thing.

 

I agree though, these warnings could come thick and fast now and Christmas might be a bust for many.  Come April next year we could be in free fall.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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9 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

I think we are going to see more of these warnings - Next, Debenhams and Marks will be on the list IMPO.

 

I've changed this thread title, as you say we can expect a LOT more of these.

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5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Provident financial nearly up 50% since I thought of buying at 450 ( now at 687.00GB ) .....hindsight is a wonderful thing.

 

I agree though, these warnings could come thick and fast now and Christmas might be a bust for many.  Come April next year we could be in free fall.

 

I think it was JP Morgan who said that the share was still worth £12.00 and so people bought the dip. Others have unkindly speculated that the banks now want rid of the stock and you will be seeing a lot of positive things said about it whlst distribution takes place.

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I have not read the full release but the BBC article mentions that customers are not upgrading their phones as frequently. I'm not sure on that analysis. Judging by hotukdeals there are a lot who sourcing android mobiles cheaply sim free.

edit: and many are also buying the premium mobile brands though sim free (else we would see Apple and Samsung worried)

Edited by Ash4781

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1 minute ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

I think it was JP Morgan who said that the share was still worth £12.00 and so people bought the dip. Others have unkindly speculated that the banks now want rid of the stock and you will be seeing a lot of positive things said about it whlst distribution takes place.

FRAUD in other words.

 

Has the look of a share that's bouncing and about to go through the floor.  Bit like Carillion, their recovery was short lived.

 

 

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Excellent news!

9 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Chickens coming home to... 

I think this profit warning is interesting following on from the Provident Financial debacle. People have been maxed out with cheap subprime loans to buy TV's, (Am I the only one in the UK who doesn't have a 55 inch plus TV?), huge fridges, etc, etc, but you think that the likes of Currys would be profitting from all of us. But it seems those dodgy Provident loans are going back a long time.

I think we are going to see more of these warnings - Next, Debenhams and Marks will be on the list IMPO.

I have been following the US retail market with stores like JC Penney and Sears - once giants of US retail - now on their knees. Many smaller operations already having gone bust. People on both sides of the Atlantic are screwed by debt and high houses prices means, well, you know the story.

I think you're certainly in the minority with your choice of TV... I don't have one at all :P

I'd guess the vast majority of these consumer electrical goods are bought from want rather than need , so when the discretionary spending budget (or availiabilty of credit) gets squeezed, companies like this suffer. The situation in America is indeed interesting - I think the bricks and mortar shops are fighting a two-front war; taking a hammering from online competitiors in an environment of slowing consumer spending.

 

7 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Just bear in mind that profit warnings in the past year for some retailers - Next and Tesco are two tha spring to mind - turned out to be lows and great buying opportunities for considerable bounces in the 6 months ahead.

Christmas is coming so this stock SHOULD see a rise through to the end of the year. There will be pleny of buy the dippers for it in the coming hours methinks.

I'd agree to a point, however you could argue that clothes and food are far greater necessities than most consumer electrical goods (despite what the brainwashed masses might believe), so when TSHTF I'd expect retailers of such necessities to fare better than those selling exepensive consumer electronics.

Personally I get the feeling that we're approaching the end of the consumer epoch as we know it.. consumerism thrived for decades, however in the face of falling real personal wealth and prosperity it has increasingly had to be propped up by cheap credit, cheapened globalised manufacture, ever-more sophisticated and exploititive marketing and even government intervention. It looks like despite all these efforts to keep it alive, decline is inevitable.. and with the rocketing amounts of personal debt plus the backlash against globalisation (Brexit, Trump) I can't see it "bouncing back" any time soon - which IMO is a good thing.

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4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

FRAUD in other words.

 

Has the look of a share that's bouncing and about to go through the floor.  Bit like Carillion, their recovery was short lived.

 

 

 

Technically and legally it is not fraud when someone says they think such and such share is worth X and then decides to sell as much of it as they can. It is just an opinion. FOXTONs are worth £25.00 a share - now come and buy all my FOXTONs shares :lol:

Analysts were saying lovely things about PF in the days and weeks prior to the recent news.

 

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Just now, Ash4781 said:

I have not read the full release but they are suggesting customers are not upgrading their phones as frequently. I'm not sure on that analysis. Judging by hotukdeals there are a lot who sourcing android mobiles cheaply sim free.

I just buy my phone now, can get a  good Android phone for under £100 and a decent SIM only deal for £10-£15.

So over 18 moths it comes out at £15-£20 quid.

http://www.techradar.com/news/phone-and-communications/mobile-phones/best-cheap-smartphones-payg-mobiles-compared-961975

Some loons are pay £40+ a month for an iphone.

When times are tough, what would you do.

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2 minutes ago, Mine the wheatfield said:

It appears to be Phone related - specifically Roaming charges, not mouth breathers buying White and Brown goods.  It should not come as a great surprise - long enough for TPTB to move their money.

 

How can we help? Do we all rush out today to buy the new £900 Samsung or do we wait for the £1200 Apple?

Methinks people would be changing their phones every 12 to 24 months if phones cost £150.00 and not the price they do. Dixons will have to get on to Apple and Google to stop supporting phones older than 12 months. That will sort it.

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4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I just buy my phone now, can get a  good Android phone for under £100 and a decent SIM only deal for £10-£15.

So over 18 moths it comes out at £15-£20 quid.

http://www.techradar.com/news/phone-and-communications/mobile-phones/best-cheap-smartphones-payg-mobiles-compared-961975

Some loons are pay £40+ a month for an iphone.

When times are tough, what would you do.

I agree but it might be worth checking out iD for even better monthly deals.  I have managed to bag a £3.99 per month offer which suits me as I am not a big user.  Vodafone were charging milking me £9.00 per month and then sent me a letter saying it was going up to over £14!!!  These companies are so greedy.

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2 minutes ago, dougless said:

I agree but it might be worth checking out iD for even better monthly deals.  I have managed to bag a £3.99 per month offer which suits me as I am not a big user.  Vodafone were charging milking me £9.00 per month and then sent me a letter saying it was going up to over £14!!!  These companies are so greedy.

For sure.

I work away a lot so need a lot of minutes/data but for a basic user you could get away with paying pennies for your mobile.

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Every day a FTSE 350 company goes down by half in price.Now some of it is down to crap management (Provi),but some are massive massive leading indicators like Dixons.

I actually rate them very highly as a company.I would probably of bought them now at this price at any time over the last 15 years.However i wont because of this.

Recession is very close at hand as is a bear market of massive proportions.We are at the high water mark in terms of the consumer's impact on the economy it will be going down hugely over the next twenty years. Capital spending, military spending and infrastructure will play significant roles in the next cycle's growth. Demand for materials will be very high,consumer demand will not be.Remember these companies have large unfunded pension liabilities as well.

As iv said many times.Earnings evaporate in a deflation event.

Edited by durhamborn

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13 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Every day a FTSE 350 company goes down by half in price.Now some of it is down to crap management (Provi),but some are massive massive leading indicators like Dixons.

I actually rate them very highly as a company.I would probably of bought them now at this price at any time over the last 15 years.However i wont because of this.

Recession is very close at hand as is a bear market of massive proportions.We are at the high water mark in terms of the consumer's impact on the economy it will be going down hugely over the next twenty years. Capital spending, military spending and infrastructure will play significant roles in the next cycle's growth. Demand for materials will be very high,consumer demand will not be.Remember these companies have large unfunded pension liabilities as well.

As iv said many times.Earnings evaporate in a deflation event.

Im not sure. All mobile networks could face a rapid turn in tide.

I have a couple of mobiles. One dumb phone ive had for 6 years, cost 40. Sim card unlimited mins and txt - 8/m.

Other, a wileyfox that im trying to strip down to just google maps and other stuff. Basucally its a phone for development. Cost 140. Sim text only that i put 10 on every 3 months.

Carphone - 60-70 m for a contract phone. Thats a lot of cash thats going out.

Who knows, when tax credit hours are reduced and people are forced to cut spend and earn their cash.

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17 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Every day a FTSE 350 company goes down by half in price.Now some of it is down to crap management (Provi),but some are massive massive leading indicators like Dixons.

I actually rate them very highly as a company.I would probably of bought them now at this price at any time over the last 15 years.However i wont because of this.

Recession is very close at hand as is a bear market of massive proportions.We are at the high water mark in terms of the consumer's impact on the economy it will be going down hugely over the next twenty years. Capital spending, military spending and infrastructure will play significant roles in the next cycle's growth. Demand for materials will be very high,consumer demand will not be.Remember these companies have large unfunded pension liabilities as well.

As iv said many times.Earnings evaporate in a deflation event.

Some thoughts:

http://www.activetradingpartners.com/dot-com-bubble-do-over/

http://www.activetradaingpartners.com/delinquencies-pile-up-will-commodities-make-a-massive-move-soon/

http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-guns-of-august-the-trade-set-up--removing-your-rose-colored-glasses?post=145692

 

 

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Just now, spyguy said:

Im not sure. All mobile networks could face a rapid turn in tide.

I have a couple of mobiles. One dumb phone ive had for 6 years, cost 40. Sim card unlimited mins and txt - 8/m.

Other, a wileyfox that im trying to strip down to just google maps and other stuff. Basucally its a phone for development. Cost 140. Sim text only that i put 10 on every 3 months.

Carphone - 60-70 m for a contract phone. Thats a lot of cash thats going out.

Who knows, when tax credit hours are reduced and people are forced to cut spend and earn their cash.

 

I got Sky Broadband unlimited fibre and a good TV bundle this time last year for £24 a month. If I stay with them it goes up to over £100 a month plus I have to start paying £20 a month to BT. So I cancelled.

Shocks me that people are paying out £100 a month plus for TV and Internet.

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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