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ARENAPUA

Evening Standard: Property Prices in Commuter Towns slashed

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I truly do believe sentiment is changing, albeit slowly...and that change is coming...

A slow and steady decline will be difficult to reverse once it takes hold and is exacerbated by interest rate rises, however small..we just need that momentum...

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/property-prices-in-commuter-towns-slashed-as-rail-season-tickets-continue-to-rise-a3618086.html

 

 

 

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42 minutes ago, ARENAPUA said:

I truly do believe sentiment is changing, albeit slowly...and that change is coming...

A slow and steady decline will be difficult to reverse once it takes hold and is exacerbated by interest rate rises, however small..we just need that momentum...

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/property-prices-in-commuter-towns-slashed-as-rail-season-tickets-continue-to-rise-a3618086.html

1) Static house prices in London mean less pressure on young Londoners to buy wherever they can to get "on the ladder" at any cost. 

+

2) Putting the brakes on buy-to-let acquisitions/financing means the BTL shoeshiners move their attention elsewhere. 

=

Demand gets sucked away from the periphery of London

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1 hour ago, ARENAPUA said:

I truly do believe sentiment is changing, albeit slowly...and that change is coming...

A slow and steady decline will be difficult to reverse once it takes hold and is exacerbated by interest rate rises, however small..we just need that momentum...

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/property-prices-in-commuter-towns-slashed-as-rail-season-tickets-continue-to-rise-a3618086.html

 

 

 

Who needs an interest rate rise when real wages are falling 'exogenously'*?

Game on.

* Econ code for 'my model of reality only models things that don't matter because otherwise the mathematics goes wild'

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Just now, Bland Unsight said:

* Econ code for 'my model of reality only models things that don't matter because otherwise the mathematics goes wild'

[Jaws style]

"We're gonna need a better model."

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1 hour ago, ARENAPUA said:

I truly do believe sentiment is changing, albeit slowly...and that change is coming...

A slow and steady decline will be difficult to reverse once it takes hold and is exacerbated by interest rate rises, however small..we just need that momentum...

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/property-prices-in-commuter-towns-slashed-as-rail-season-tickets-continue-to-rise-a3618086.html

 

 

 

'The biggest increase was in the Berkshire town of Reading — 26 minutes from Paddington. Here, the percentage of homes with price cuts almost doubled from 22.8 per cent to 44 per cent. In the past five years, prices in the M4 corridor town have risen by more than 30 per cent to an average £303,000.

 

Next came Basingstoke, 50 minutes from Waterloo, with a rise in the proportion of homes seeing a price cut from 19.1 per cent to 35.6. This was followed by Basildon, where the figure surged from 26.7 per cent to 41 per cent.

Across the nation as a whole, just over a third of properties on the market have already seen price cuts in a bid to tempt buyers —  the total stands at 35 per cent in London. 

Nine of the top 10 biggest areas for discounting are in the South-East, according to the data from Zoopla analysed by HouseSimple.com.'

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Cutting your price from supper-super-insane to just super-insane isn't really that amazing though is it?

All this article tells me is what I see on Right Move every day.  Each new 2-bed goes on at 230,000  even though the ones at 220,000 aren't selling and then eventually they all go SSTC at about the same price.  Trouble is that "same price" is still stupidly too much.

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52 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

Who needs an interest rate rise when real wages are falling 'exogenously'*?

Game on.

* Econ code for 'my model of reality only models things that don't matter because otherwise the mathematics goes wild'

I had to admit its so bad Carney does not even have to raise rates does he.

Unwind that QE and term funding and the party will start without any raise

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7 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

'The biggest increase was in the Berkshire town of Reading — 26 minutes from Paddington. Here, the percentage of homes with price cuts almost doubled from 22.8 per cent to 44 per cent. In the past five years, prices in the M4 corridor town have risen by more than 30 per cent to an average £303,000.

 

Next came Basingstoke, 50 minutes from Waterloo, with a rise in the proportion of homes seeing a price cut from 19.1 per cent to 35.6. This was followed by Basildon, where the figure surged from 26.7 per cent to 41 per cent.

Across the nation as a whole, just over a third of properties on the market have already seen price cuts in a bid to tempt buyers —  the total stands at 35 per cent in London. 

Nine of the top 10 biggest areas for discounting are in the South-East, according to the data from Zoopla analysed by HouseSimple.com.'

They still use a weird positive tone such as "biggest rise in number of " even when describing reductions. Why can't they just say "big drop" or god forbid "falls".

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7 hours ago, stop_the_craziness said:

Cutting your price from supper-super-insane to just super-insane isn't really that amazing though is it?

 

Better than going from " just super-insane" to "supper-super-insane"

 

but I agree with your sentiment.  10x average wage aint much better than 15x

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7 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

I had to admit its so bad Carney does not even have to raise rates does he.

Unwind that QE and term funding and the party will start without any raise

If the chief of Shawbrook bank is to be believed Term Funding is out the door and they will all be fending for themselves.

If that comes to pass then it's really game on.

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10 hours ago, ARENAPUA said:

I truly do believe sentiment is changing, albeit slowly...and that change is coming...

A slow and steady decline will be difficult to reverse once it takes hold and is exacerbated by interest rate rises, however small..we just need that momentum...

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/property-prices-in-commuter-towns-slashed-as-rail-season-tickets-continue-to-rise-a3618086.html

 

 

 

"Londoners who moved to commuter towns to escape sky-high prices in the capital now face a struggle to sell."

Why did no one see this coming ? :rolleyes:

"He added that the sharp slowdown in the London market meant less housing equity was being exported to the commuter belt"

There are simply not enough high earners locally in the shires to support the prices idiots moving out of London with oodles of tax free unearned cash has paid.  Handed a massive windfall these morons went out and spend it all on houses in areas where people really are quite poor and where prices were artificially inflated to soak up all that cash.  They've (we've) probably been tricked into bailing out the banks further while putting a LARGE weight around their necks.

I'd say good luck to them, but I wouldnt mean it.  I hope these ****wits loose it all, they have helped, unwittingly or otherwise, screw over thousands of local people around London and support the bankers, post 2007 this is plain and simple stupidity.

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Bit of a misleading headline. 

The numbers don't make it clear why this is happening but the fact it's coming straight from estate agents, Housesimple and Savills does. Also knowing Georgie Osbourne has given it the green light means it clearly isn't about changing sentiment. Naughty estate agents. 

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9 hours ago, stop_the_craziness said:

Cutting your price from supper-super-insane to just super-insane isn't really that amazing though is it?

All this article tells me is what I see on Right Move every day.  Each new 2-bed goes on at 230,000  even though the ones at 220,000 aren't selling and then eventually they all go SSTC at about the same price.  Trouble is that "same price" is still stupidly too much.

Saw this article in yesterday's Standard and thought the same as above - I've been seeing reductions at a fairly steady rate round my way in Essex now since last year's Brexit vote *but* at the moment it seems to be more people trying for the old 10% annual rise of a few years back and then having to retreat back to the going rate. So it feels more liek the rises have stalled but we're not really seeing falls yet. It will take something else (and I'm still betting on a BTL sell-off come next April's tax bills coming through with the new rules applied) to tip it into reverse

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5 minutes ago, lostinessex said:

Saw this article in yesterday's Standard and thought the same as above - I've been seeing reductions at a fairly steady rate round my way in Essex now since last year's Brexit vote *but* at the moment it seems to be more people trying for the old 10% annual rise of a few years back and then having to retreat back to the going rate. So it feels more liek the rises have stalled but we're not really seeing falls yet. It will take something else (and I'm still betting on a BTL sell-off come next April's tax bills coming through with the new rules applied) to tip it into reverse

The removal of the easy credit and another 10% inflation will see and end to this madness

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10 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

'The biggest increase was in the Berkshire town of Reading — 26 minutes from Paddington. Here, the percentage of homes with price cuts almost doubled from 22.8 per cent to 44 per cent. In the past five years, prices in the M4 corridor town have risen by more than 30 per cent to an average £303,000.

 

Next came Basingstoke, 50 minutes from Waterloo, with a rise in the proportion of homes seeing a price cut from 19.1 per cent to 35.6. This was followed by Basildon, where the figure surged from 26.7 per cent to 41 per cent.

Across the nation as a whole, just over a third of properties on the market have already seen price cuts in a bid to tempt buyers —  the total stands at 35 per cent in London. 

Nine of the top 10 biggest areas for discounting are in the South-East, according to the data from Zoopla analysed by HouseSimple.com.'

You might want to read my comments on Readung in the regional forum.

I have some problems convincung the boosters on my theory, which looks like its coming true day by day.

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4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If the chief of Shawbrook bank is to be believed Term Funding is out the door and they will all be fending for themselves.

If that comes to pass then it's really game on.

I can't see why TPTB would do that when it suits their chums in the banks so well to access funds for virtually no cost.

That said, I've noticed Ulster Bank go from offering virtually nothing (0.1%) on savings accounts back to 1.5% recently.  Still paltry but it hints that they need depositor funds again.

 

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

You might want to read my comments on Readung in the regional forum.

Haha I like that deliberate(?) typo. It seems to have sealed my son's job offer when at the interview he let slip that his dad calls the company's location Basingrad.

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Anecdotal:  Commuter towns in Surrey and Hants have gone up considerably since I took an interest (early 2013), up perhaps 50% to the extent that a 2013 semi in nice location did cost  what a terrace will now fetch in a poor location.

With recent high-profile commuter woes (southern saga, waterloo upgrade) there is probably a decline in positivity from commuters when explaining to others the advantages of leaving London for a larger place in the commuter belt.  Those season ticket costs now also often  breaching £4k and £5k physiological levels.  Indeed, above £5k some employers are getting reluctant to give season ticket loans due to HMRC starting to query the loan amount as a taxable perk.   The public attitude in this part of the world I live in, which has been very pro-commuter in recent years (advantages > time and money spent travelling), might be shifting.    That said, alternatives for the same money in London seem very grim (see Balham thread) once you get used to commuter belt living - large rooms, low crime, nice schools, countryside lifestyle (i.e. having an allotment, putting down routes in a community very different to London working life)

The local market where I am is now stagnant with nothing selling, although properties that come  are still doing so at super-inflated prices and just being ignored.  It all looks ready for a fall.  I think the genuine commuter destinations (regular trains for shorter commutes in genuine countryside) will hold up better than the commuter towns of last resort that get chosen once more pleasant options are exhausted.   They might fall heavily as London property falls. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

I can't see why TPTB would do that when it suits their chums in the banks so well to access funds for virtually no cost.

 

I think they know how angry people are getting.

The british establishment are about maintaining their position not being hung from lumposts and having their lands in the north confiscated by the government of the new British republic

Besides, as sales dry up, the market will collapse regardless, they now need a crash.

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2 minutes ago, Does Commute Abit said:

Anecdotal:  Commuter towns in Surrey and Hants have gone up considerably since I took an interest (early 2013), up perhaps 50% to the extent that a 2013 semi in nice location did cost  what a terrace will now fetch in a poor location.

With recent high-profile commuter woes (southern saga, waterloo upgrade) there is probably a decline in positivity from commuters when explaining to others the advantages of leaving London for a larger place in the commuter belt.  Those season ticket costs now also often  breaching £4k and £5k physiological levels.  Indeed, above £5k some employers are getting reluctant to give season ticket loans due to HMRC starting to query the loan amount as a taxable perk.   The public attitude in this part of the world I live in, which has been very pro-commuter in recent years (advantages > time and money spent travelling), might be shifting.    That said, alternatives for the same money in London seem very grim (see Balham thread) once you get used to commuter belt living - large rooms, low crime, nice schools, countryside lifestyle (i.e. having an allotment, putting down routes in a community very different to London working life)

The local market where I am is now stagnant with nothing selling, although properties that come  are still doing so at super-inflated prices and just being ignored.  It all looks ready for a fall.  I think the genuine commuter destinations (regular trains for shorter commutes in genuine countryside) will hold up better than the commuter towns of last resort that get chosen once more pleasant options are exhausted.   They might fall heavily as London property falls. 

 

EXACTLY the Same here in Northants.

It's as it the rises were coordinated.

I ( and venger ) suspect the banks are in a position to force people to accept their losses :lol: 

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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