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Mapatasy

Jumpers...

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I've always been interested in economic cycles and remember watching a documentary 20-25 years ago that revealed (or at least proposed) that this iconic belief that we hold regarding the poor chaps that chucked themselves out of skyscrapers etc during the 20's crash is incorrect and that the large majority of 'jumpers' weren't the investors that didn't see the crash coming... they were mostly a collection of the more savvy investors who had, in fact, seen the storm on the horizon - patiently waited and after things looked like they had bottomed out took not only everything they had but everything their families, friends, friends of friends etc, etc had and jumped 'head first' into the deep end without their arm bands in the absolute belief that things 'couldn't get any worse'...

Ooops!

I've been saying for many years that after the crash starts and before we see any meaningful correction - things will appear to move slowly whilst the sideline money (the stupidity prop) is spent out... is this what we are beginning to witness now through early data like this?

https://www.propertyinvestortoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/8/first-time-buyers-are-currently-supporting-the-uk-housing-market

Beginning to see more and more articles like this all the time and I'm wondering if this could be an indication that the 'slightly smarter dumb money' (that has been waiting on the sidelines) is cashing out and snapping up 'bargains'?

I'm being told by Conveyancers and EAs, that my wife very much respects, that mostly all completions at play at the moment are taking place in cash. They are all 'freaking out' it would seem.

 

 

 

 

 

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a while back we were warned that we were talking ourselves into a recession, now everyone wants to talk about the coming recession. Expect houses to halve in value, so these cash buyers will be 'hopping madders' if not actual 'jumpers'.  

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5 hours ago, Mapatasy said:

I've always been interested in economic cycles and remember watching a documentary 20-25 years ago that revealed (or at least proposed) that this iconic belief that we hold regarding the poor chaps that chucked themselves out of skyscrapers etc during the 20's crash is incorrect and that the large majority of 'jumpers' weren't the investors that didn't see the crash coming... they were mostly a collection of the more savvy investors who had, in fact, seen the storm on the horizon - patiently waited and after things looked like they had bottomed out took not only everything they had but everything their families, friends, friends of friends etc, etc had and jumped 'head first' into the deep end without their arm bands in the absolute belief that things 'couldn't get any worse'...

Ooops!

I've been saying for many years that after the crash starts and before we see any meaningful correction - things will appear to move slowly whilst the sideline money (the stupidity prop) is spent out... is this what we are beginning to witness now through early data like this?

https://www.propertyinvestortoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/8/first-time-buyers-are-currently-supporting-the-uk-housing-market

Beginning to see more and more articles like this all the time and I'm wondering if this could be an indication that the 'slightly smarter dumb money' (that has been waiting on the sidelines) is cashing out and snapping up 'bargains'?

I'm being told by Conveyancers and EAs, that my wife very much respects, that mostly all completions at play at the moment are taking place in cash. They are all 'freaking out' it would seem.

 

 

 

 

 

The classic case of catching a falling knife back in the 1920's.

Interesting that we also have a thread going at the moment about "value". It's funny how just because something  could be valued at £50,000 and suddenly drop to £250,000 that it is suddenly seen as cheap, could be that £250,000 is over priced as well.

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If first time buyers become the main support for house prices, and people with cash resources are increasingly unable or unwilling to wait any longer, then it won't be long until that support fizzles out and price falls gain speed. Fingers crossed.

 

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6 hours ago, Mapatasy said:

I've always been interested in economic cycles and remember watching a documentary 20-25 years ago that revealed (or at least proposed) that this iconic belief that we hold regarding the poor chaps that chucked themselves out of skyscrapers etc during the 20's crash is incorrect and that the large majority of 'jumpers' weren't the investors that didn't see the crash coming... they were mostly a collection of the more savvy investors who had, in fact, seen the storm on the horizon - patiently waited and after things looked like they had bottomed out took not only everything they had but everything their families, friends, friends of friends etc, etc had and jumped 'head first' into the deep end without their arm bands in the absolute belief that things 'couldn't get any worse'...

Ooops!

I've been saying for many years that after the crash starts and before we see any meaningful correction - things will appear to move slowly whilst the sideline money (the stupidity prop) is spent out... is this what we are beginning to witness now through early data like this?

https://www.propertyinvestortoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/8/first-time-buyers-are-currently-supporting-the-uk-housing-market

Beginning to see more and more articles like this all the time and I'm wondering if this could be an indication that the 'slightly smarter dumb money' (that has been waiting on the sidelines) is cashing out and snapping up 'bargains'?

I'm being told by Conveyancers and EAs, that my wife very much respects, that mostly all completions at play at the moment are taking place in cash. They are all 'freaking out' it would seem.

 

Equally its the case that if no one can get a mortgage at the moment (BTLers subject to tougher portfolio rules, OO not able to afford current prices) the only people able to pay the current prices are those with cash.

All that means is that the Ball is coming to the end and we are at (or almost at) the last Waltz... Time will tell...

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I don't mind if they jump out of buildings - so long as they don't kill anyone else when they hit the ground (it does happen!).

It's when they really selfishly and inconsiderately choose to jump in front of trains that riles me. Screws up the train services for the remainder of the day!

Edited by anonguest

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1 minute ago, Parkwell said:

If first time buyers become the main support for house prices, and people with cash resources are increasingly unable or unwilling to wait any longer, then it won't be long until that support fizzles out and price falls gain speed. Fingers crossed.

 

If there wasn't endless property ramping from the government, BOE and MSM and the fear of so many people being "left out" the correction would have taken place years ago. When I was in my early 20's I thought the art of brianwashing and social engineering through manipulation and marketing was b****x. I now know it is 100% true and find it frightening in modern educated 2017 that so many people can be manipulated in the way that they are and fear for what could I happen in the future.

I am not sure what the percentage is of the population that keeps the property market going each year, but I am sure it is not all that big. A lot of people with agendas are working hard on getting that small group to join the madness. It just takes enough of them to wake up and say NO I am holding of from this insanity, and then the fun starts.

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1 minute ago, anonguest said:

I don't mind if they jump out of buildings - so long as they don't kill anyone else when they hit the ground (it does happen!).

It's when they really selfishly choose to jump in front of trains that riles me. Screws up the train services for the remainder of the day!

Perhaps BTL Landlords could be offered some sort of tax intensive to only jump in front of trains in the evenings? ;)

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In terms of housing, I will step in when what I think my income should offer me in terms of standard: very happy getting my hand on a Victorian 3 bed terraced in Z2-3. 

Anything below that, I will sneer at and call them fools. 

Well we will see when income matters once again, so far it does not.

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53 minutes ago, Mapatasy said:

Perhaps BTL Landlords could be offered some sort of tax intensive to only jump in front of trains in the evenings? ;)

Maybe it's my imagination but I seem to have noticed, over the years, that suicides due to persons 'losing everything' through financial/business activities seem to vary.

Employees of banks/hedge funds/etc tend to kill only themselves. Whereas rags to on paper riches (and then back to rags!) Joe Bloggs has a tendency to not only kill himself but often to take his family with him too!  :( 

I can sadly easily see loads of such ordinary people who have built up a BTL 'empire' losing it in coming years and subsequently take their spouse and kids with them when they decide they decide to end it all.  There's far too many people who are living a life of de facto pretence and have been for too long.

Edited by anonguest

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36 minutes ago, Mapatasy said:

Perhaps BTL Landlords could be offered some sort of tax intensive to only jump in front of trains in the evenings? ;)

Imagine the damage Fergus would do to the train.

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24 minutes ago, Freki said:

Well we will see when income matters once again, so far it does not.

I believe that the signs overwhelmingly support the idea that we are currently entering a period of massive debt deflation.

As people borrow less (for what ever reason) and debt is paid down or defaulted on 'cash' will very quickly become more scarce... cash in bank, income etc will rapidly become more valuable. Prices will be decided by those with 'money' and how, when are where they choose to spend it.

When policy is designed to force us to spend... that's the time to do the exact opposite!

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2 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

Imagine the damage Fergus would do to the train.

also imagine what kind of economic damage he would do should he jump - i expect mcdonalds, dominos, kfc and crispy creme to go extinct if he sang the blues.

Edited by leonardratso
language timothy

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9 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

Imagine the damage Fergus would do to the train.

Just LSHIFAW!!!

 

 

Laughed so hard I farted at work!

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7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

...take out a banker, an EA or a fat landlord from Kent.

Imagine attempting suicide and being saved by landing on that belly.

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25 minutes ago, Mapatasy said:

I believe that the signs overwhelmingly support the idea that we are currently entering a period of massive debt deflation.

As people borrow less (for what ever reason) and debt is paid down or defaulted on 'cash' will very quickly become more scarce... cash in bank, income etc will rapidly become more valuable. Prices will be decided by those with 'money' and how, when are where they choose to spend it.

When policy is designed to force us to spend... that's the time to do the exact opposite!

Agree 100% on this.I would term it debt liquidation,or even more on point involuntary debt liquidation.

Mario Draghi has just said this at the ECB meeting,

"unconventional monetary policy has been a success on both sides of the Atlantic.Policy actions undertaken in the last 10 years in monetary policy and in regulation and supervision have made the world more resilient"

Its breathtaking that the CBs think asset bubbles,and stealing ordinary workers savings through printing is a great success.

Its pretty obvious they think they can simply print whatever they need when things turn a bit south and stopping business cycles ending when they want to causes no problems.

Does he not have a velocity chart?.Or a productivity one?.Real investment one?.Or a real growth one?

 

gdp.jpg

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43 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

Imagine the damage Fergus would do to the train.

Couldn't care less about Fergus. OTOH, it's massively unfair on the poor train driver.

Edited by Shrink Proof

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1 hour ago, Shrink Proof said:

Couldn't care less about Fergus. OTOH, it's massively unfair on the poor train driver.

They ain't poor that's for sure.. 50k + for pressing stop and go, they don't even need to steer.. good work if you can get it. Surely based on that skill set a bus driver should be on 90k, road sweeper 100k as they have to operate the brush switch.. ?

You are right though I prefer a good old fashion stoning for landlords.. 

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3 hours ago, anonguest said:

I don't mind if they jump out of buildings - so long as they don't kill anyone else when they hit the ground (it does happen!).

It's when they really selfishly and inconsiderately choose to jump in front of trains that riles me. Screws up the train services for the remainder of the day!

thats too harsh

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5 hours ago, Mapatasy said:

 

As people borrow less (for what ever reason) and debt is paid down or defaulted on 'cash' will very quickly become more scarce... cash in bank, income etc will rapidly become more valuable. Prices will be decided by those with 'money' and how, when are where they choose to spend it.

When policy is designed to force us to spend... that's the time to do the exact opposite!

Martin Armstrong has this theme where he says hoards of old coins were from times where people began hoarding in the face of falling confidence or times of higher taxation. Often the faces of the emperors on the coins of each board were the ones history records as being "difficult".

IFRC he is still predicting people withdrawing faith then investment in Government bonds, largely because of pension commitments that won't be affordable and a flight to the stock market, then for it to take off. Is that likely if we focus more on wealth destruction on the scale predicted though? 

Ps Based on this thread... and having a think... "A friend of mine"(ahem) has now moved his pension to cash for a while to see what will happen over the next months...

Durhamborn this thread is quite something.

Edited by Thorn
Mods please move this to Deflationary Collapse thread thanks

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Just now, suresh786 said:

i wouldn't wish anyone to die

Really? No one?!  At all?!  Not even Hitler, Stalin, Bin Laden, Pol Pot.....?

I know... that's just being facetious. 

I certainly would not want to wish anyone ordinary to die BUT....No one makes these people destroy their own lives through their greed. In the same way they choose to engage in risky ventures they are equally free to 'end it all' IF they feel they cannot continue without the riches they aspired to. Remember too that, very often, these sorts of people tend to be selfish and obnoxious in their attitudes to their fellow man when they have their riches. Eliminating them from the gene pool makes the rest of us largely better off?

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8 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Really? No one?!  At all?!  Not even Hitler, Stalin, Bin Laden, Pol Pot.....?

I know... that's just being facetious. 

I certainly would not want to wish anyone ordinary to die BUT....No one makes these people destroy their own lives through their greed. In the same way they choose to engage in risky ventures they are equally free to 'end it all' IF they feel they cannot continue without the riches they aspired to. Remember too that, very often, these sorts of people tend to be selfish and obnoxious in their attitudes to their fellow man when they have their riches. Eliminating them from the gene pool makes the rest of us largely better off?

You are utterly clueless.

Utterly.

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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