Ngx Northgate Minerals

[Pent Vaer]

Hey folks,

picked up from a topic on kitco, I did some research on NGX

(on the TSX, think also on a US exchange). I decided to compare

them to AEM, another producer. The current NGX share price

is less than 1/10th of AEM, while NGX has around twice as many

shares outstanding, so lets say AEM is 5 times more expensive.

Looking quickly at reserves in production and coming on line in coming years, it seems that they are (very) roughly comparable.

Last news from NGX was:

January 17, 2006 Northgate Reports Record Fourth Quarter Production of 94,405 Ounces;

at a Record Low Cash Cost of $59 Per Ounce; Production of 320,000 Ounces Forecast for 2006

AEM plans 290,000 ounces in 2006, at a hoped-for cost of

50$ per ounce, so pretty comparable.

I have also read from NGX management that they plan to be debt

and hedge free by Mid-2006. Currently their hedge position

is very small, not sure what the debts are.

The only possible negative I see is if they have permit troubles

for the Kemess North expansion. If they don't, they'll be able

to use large amounts of their existing infrastructure to exploit

it, AEM should have more costs at their different sites.

Looking at the yahoo finance analyst averages, NGX overtook

AEM as a buy this week, for whatever that's worth, and estimated

revenues for 2006 are $215m (NGX) vs $290m (AEM).

I have the feeling that NGX is severely undervalued, maybe

because is was not debt and hedge free up till now, and intend to buy a tonne. On February 24th they will have 2005 results call: maybe the stock will explode then...

Anyone else see the catch or is this a fantastic buy ?

Pent

Edited January 28, 2006 by Pent Vaer

[Mr_Nice]

Hey folks,

picked up from a topic on kitco, I did some research on NGX

(on the TSX, think also on a US exchange). I decided to compare

them to AEM, another producer. The current NGX share price

is less than 1/10th of AEM, while NGX has around twice as many

shares outstanding, so lets say AEM is 5 times more expensive.

Looking quickly at reserves in production and coming on line in coming years, it seems that they are (very) roughly comparable.

Last news from NGX was:

January 17, 2006 Northgate Reports Record Fourth Quarter Production of 94,405 Ounces;

at a Record Low Cash Cost of $59 Per Ounce; Production of 320,000 Ounces Forecast for 2006

AEM plans 290,000 ounces in 2006, at a hoped-for cost of

50$ per ounce, so pretty comparable.

I have also read from NGX management that they plan to be debt

and hedge free by Mid-2006. Currently their hedge position

is very small, not sure what the debts are.

The only possible negative I see is if they have permit troubles

for the Kemess North expansion. If they don't, they'll be able

to use large amounts of their existing infrastructure to exploit

it, AEM should have more costs at their different sites.

Looking at the yahoo finance analyst averages, NGX overtook

AEM as a buy this week, for whatever that's worth, and estimated

revenues for 2006 are $215m (NGX) vs $290m (AEM).

I have the feeling that NGX is severely undervalued, maybe

because is was not debt and hedge free up till now, and intend to buy a tonne. On February 24th they will have 2005 results call: maybe the stock will explode then...

Anyone else see the catch or is this a fantastic buy ?

Pent

Was doing general web search on NGX and low and behold HPC came up.

I agree on NGX. Filled me boots on Monday, the timing being due to the results on Friday.

Win or loose at least something should happen this week. I guess the real action will be today or tomorrow in anticipation. Soft gold not going to help though.

[Pent Vaer]

Was doing general web search on NGX and low and behold HPC came up.

I agree on NGX. Filled me boots on Monday, the timing being due to the results on Friday.

Win or loose at least something should happen this week. I guess the real action will be today or tomorrow in anticipation. Soft gold not going to help though.

I'd dumped 2/3 of my NGX during second week of feb when gold

did it's fake (till now) pull back. Also reloaded up couple of days

ago. Fingers crossed. We also need copper to hold up so that

the costs are kept down.

After my brief sojourn in the markets, one thing that's struck me is how annoying it is when a great piece of news for a stock has zero share price impact because the general sentiment in the sector is negative at the time the news comes out. Could be that way

again this week with NGX.

Pent

[Mr_Nice]

I'd dumped 2/3 of my NGX during second week of feb when gold

did it's fake (till now) pull back. Also reloaded up couple of days

ago. Fingers crossed. We also need copper to hold up so that

the costs are kept down.

After my brief sojourn in the markets, one thing that's struck me is how annoying it is when a great piece of news for a stock has zero share price impact because the general sentiment in the sector is negative at the time the news comes out. Could be that way

again this week with NGX.

Pent

The buying or selling almost always is in advance of the news, which is why i anticipate the action happening today/tomorrow. What annoys me is that this is so obviously insider dealing but no one seems to give a sh*t. Obviously this is purely jealously on my part as the once or twice I hvae been able to trade before news hits the market I have enjoyed every minute of it.

[Pent Vaer]

Wow, here's a very nice confirmation for NGX:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Matlack/feb222006.html

Notice there isn't a single miner listed with a better p/e forecast

for 2006. In fact, there are hardly any anywhere near it on a forward p/e basis.

Again the main two possible thorns are falling copper price

leading to increased extraction costs, or problems with the

Kemess North expansion (permits etc).

Pent

[Pent Vaer]

Here it is then:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060223/20060223006094.html?.v=1

Debt free 4 months ahead of target.

On the hedge issue, appears

they've been closing gold hedge positions. Previously stated they

would be hedge free by mid-2006. For copper, they're hedging

13000 tonnes forward at $1.98. Set that against a production

of 74 million pounds (30000 tonnes ?) in 2005, looks they're

hedging half their copper. Feel free to correct my sums :-)

Results from drilling on the new property expected starting

April.

They hope to acquire a late-stage dev project in 2006.

Nice that they can fund exploration and purchases without generating debt now.

Pent

[Mr_Nice]

Here it is then:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060223/20060223006094.html?.v=1

Debt free 4 months ahead of target.

On the hedge issue, appears

they've been closing gold hedge positions. Previously stated they

would be hedge free by mid-2006. For copper, they're hedging

13000 tonnes forward at $1.98. Set that against a production

of 74 million pounds (30000 tonnes ?) in 2005, looks they're

hedging half their copper. Feel free to correct my sums :-)

Results from drilling on the new property expected starting

April.

They hope to acquire a late-stage dev project in 2006.

Nice that they can fund exploration and purchases without generating debt now.

Pent

Looks good to me and I am happy to be holding these. Do you know if the news came out after the market closed as there was not much change in price yesterday and the short term chart is actually quite negative?

Cheers

[Pent Vaer]

Looks good to me and I am happy to be holding these. Do you know if the news came out after the market closed as there was not much change in price yesterday and the short term chart is actually quite negative?

Cheers

Think so, 9pm ET is on the release. I think it's quite good timing.

The RSI has pulled back a lot after months of bobbing along the

top, maybe we're ready for another push now. On the other hand, I've seen a decent news release push a miner down 30%, so I have no expectations any more about these events.

This Saudi oil refinery event could help matters, pushing gold

up and improving sentiment in the mining equities, even if

it's just for today.

Pent

[Mr_Nice]

Think so, 9pm ET is on the release. I think it's quite good timing.

The RSI has pulled back a lot after months of bobbing along the

top, maybe we're ready for another push now. On the other hand, I've seen a decent news release push a miner down 30%, so I have no expectations any more about these events.

This Saudi oil refinery event could help matters, pushing gold

up and improving sentiment in the mining equities, even if

it's just for today.

Pent

Well we have number 1 spot in Kitco. I am 20% up on the ones i picked up last week so I am happy chap. Going to sell a few thousand and get some PFN. http://www.pfncapital.com

This seems to be a totally overlooked company has joint ventures with the majors which will see it through to production. Could be a ten bagger. If you're interested let me know your opion.

Cheers

Here is an extract from infomine.

Vancouver-based Pacific North West Capital Corp and joint venture partner Anglo American Platinum Corp are currently preparing budgets for work to be done on their River Valley Property in Ontario (current resources: + 1.2 million Pt+Pd+Au ounces) which is earmarked for more drilling to substantially increase resource ounces. Pacific North West is in the enviable position of having three of its core projects financed to production by two of the world's top three platinum mining companies. Also, Marathon PGM Corp's primary focus is its Marathon PGM-Cu Property, also in Ontario. To date, the project hosts measured and indicated Pt+Pd resources of over 1.3 million ounces, and inferred Pt+Pd resources of over 0.5 million ounces. The company plans to increase the measured, indicated and inferred mineral resources on the project and identifying areas of further exploration potential.

[Pent Vaer]

Looks good to me :-) Trying to buy some at 0.355.

My tip in exchange is czn (canadian zinc), an interesting story if you havn't seen it already, this might be a good time to buy too.

This recent press release grants an important permit.

You can find the current resource estimates in there too:

70m ounces silver, 3 billion pounds zinc, 2 billion pounds lead.

http://www.canadianzinc.com/press/docs/NR-02-13-06.pdf

You can see they're drilling in 2006, so we can expect some

newsflow too.

Note that much of the needed mine and mill is already built

(by the Hunt Bros before they went bankrupt).

Pent

[Mr_Nice]

Looks good to me :-) Trying to buy some at 0.355.

My tip in exchange is czn (canadian zinc), an interesting story if you havn't seen it already, this might be a good time to buy too.

This recent press release grants an important permit.

You can find the current resource estimates in there too:

70m ounces silver, 3 billion pounds zinc, 2 billion pounds lead.

http://www.canadianzinc.com/press/docs/NR-02-13-06.pdf

You can see they're drilling in 2006, so we can expect some

newsflow too.

Note that much of the needed mine and mill is already built

(by the Hunt Bros before they went bankrupt).

Pent

Hi, been skiing for the week. And had the discipline not to log in for a week! That was a test.

I have a fair chunk of CZN too picked them up a few weeks back at .93$. I agree that they look well positioned and a few weeks back Money Week ran a piece on their view of a large upside on zinc so i thought they were a good play.

Some others i hold and like are anac moly (aua) for molydenum, molycor gold for a good mix. Both have been strong but i am sticking with them.

Have a shed load of KEEGAN RES too and I think i will take some profits on them as they have had a great week. Full list of my portfolio is below.

BTW have you looked at http://www.americanbulls.com. I really like this site as I find it complements the informational research element of stock picks. I.e i find stocks I like and use this as an added tool to decide when to buy in, top up or take some profits.

UK.

APP

CBM

HGM

REI

TSG

UKC

US.

CAU

SWC

HL

SIL

Canada

CZN

CDM

EDR

ELD

EPL

ER

FVI

HBM

IVN

KGN

MAW

MOR

NGX

PFN

WNP

[Frizzers]

Mr Nice, Pent,

When you're buying Canadian, Aussie and South African shares, do you use a broker based here or do you use a broker based in one of those countries or elsewhere overeas?

Cheers

Frizzers

[Pent Vaer]

I have a fair chunk of CZN too picked them up a few weeks back at .93$. I agree that they look well positioned and a few weeks back Money Week ran a piece on their view of a large upside on zinc so i thought they were a good play.

Yeah, zinc expectations are my other motivation for czn.

BTW have you looked at http://www.americanbulls.com. I really like this site as I find it complements the informational research element of stock picks. I.e i find stocks I like and use this as an added tool to decide when to buy in, top up or take some profits.

I'll have a look, thanks. I only buy CAD stocks (don't like

USD currency risk), stockhouse.ca is useful for a more inside view for those too. Oh, I have some UK oilies too, I use the tmf.co.uk

boards as my main guide for picking those.

My current stocks are:

DNT (just brokeout 2 days ago), CZN, FAN, PFN, SVL, NGX.

I'm kicking myself for not having SSO right now. I sold when

the reaction to Japanese tightening was still unclear, forgot to

buy back in. They have 500moz silver. Perhaps they'll be bought

out by a major producer soon like WTC was recently.

Decided to limit myself more to holders of large resources than producers, they're mostly less volatile with the prices of the metals then it's less stressful for me. Apart from NGX, that one I can't

resist.

Pent

[Pent Vaer]

Mr Nice, Pent,

When you're buying Canadian, Aussie and South African shares, do you use a broker based here or do you use a broker based in one of those countries or elsewhere overeas?

Cheers

Frizzers

I use an online overseas broker, not based in Canada. I don't like to give out the name on a message board. If you choose one, make sure it's in a country that offers deposit and investment protection.

Pent

[Pent Vaer]

Zinc and silver have both done extremely well last few days.

At some point czn.to has to respond decisively. They have billions of pounds of zinc and minimally 70m oz silver and are within a

year or two of production.

The graph looks pretty promising for today.

Pent

[Pent Vaer]

Zinc and silver have both done extremely well last few days.

At some point czn.to has to respond decisively. They have billions of pounds of zinc and minimally 70m oz silver and are within a

year or two of production.

The graph looks pretty promising for today.

Pent

Wow, getting good at this, czn up maybe 40% since that text,

still high volume.

On ngx: it's really trying. It should. But will it ?

Pent

Edited April 1, 2006 by Pent Vaer

[Mr_Nice]

Wow, getting good at this, czn up maybe 40% since that text,

still high volume.

On ngx: it's really trying. It should. But will it ?

Pent

Yep. I sold a big chunk of my CZN on friday have left a rather nice profit on the table.

Into YZC too on the same grounds and looking for 75 before jumping off.

Hope next week treats you well, back into NGX and RIC. PFN is being stubborn but I have faith.

Cheers

[Pent Vaer]

Hope next week treats you well, back into NGX and RIC. PFN is being stubborn but I have faith.

Last week was way too good. Fingers crossed gold holds up.

Can't believe there can be two consecutive weeks like that.

This is one incredible bull market.

pfn I'm also still holding. Tried to sell last week to cover a cash deficit and because I didn't like the short term look of the chart, but no takers. Bought a few last week, gbn, tdc, rvm, cvv,

clz.

ric is new to me, graph looks good, wish I'd known few days ago :-)

On the other hand I don't have any free cash and I much prefer

the under-one-$ stocks now anyway.

May fortune smile on your portfolio :-)

Pent

[Mr_Nice]

Last week was way too good. Fingers crossed gold holds up.

Can't believe there can be two consecutive weeks like that.

This is one incredible bull market.

pfn I'm also still holding. Tried to sell last week to cover a cash deficit and because I didn't like the short term look of the chart, but no takers. Bought a few last week, gbn, tdc, rvm, cvv,

clz.

ric is new to me, graph looks good, wish I'd known few days ago :-)

On the other hand I don't have any free cash and I much prefer

the under-one-$ stocks now anyway.

May fortune smile on your portfolio :-)

Pent

Another good day YZC up 10%, KGN, CLZ strong too and PFN showing signs of life. NGX slowing locking you in some nice gains too?

Am going to give http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/ ago and try a few individual stock topics. Would be good if you stopped by.

Cheers

[Pent Vaer]

Another good day YZC up 10%, KGN, CLZ strong too and PFN showing signs of life. NGX slowing locking you in some nice gains too?

Am going to give http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/ ago and try a few individual stock topics. Would be good if you stopped by.

Cheers

Yep, another excellent day, lulls you into a false sense of security.

Don't know if I'd describe clz as strong though, more like erratic! If it can break 0.26 would prob be a nice push.

ngx looking good, finally broke that 2.7ish level. Hopefully first

quarter results out soon, should be impressive given copper

price. Think they've been drilling too. And are in some kind of

new small cap index that can be traded by funds soon apparently,

may attract more capital.

Don't like the look of the hui graph, BTW.

Pent