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reddog

We now have the FTSE and £ dropping at the same time

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When the £ slumped after Brexit, the FTSE surged with the logic being that because the pound was lower, profits from abroad when measured in £'s would be higher.

 

We now have both going down at the same time, what does this mean?  That the stock market is doing worse than it looks in the surface?

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6 minutes ago, reddog said:

When the £ slumped after Brexit, the FTSE surged with the logic being that because the pound was lower, profits from abroad when measured in £'s would be higher.

 

We now have both going down at the same time, what does this mean?  That the stock market is doing worse than it looks in the surface?

Need to print more money and lend it to people via mortgage debt...

 

 

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The ftse and gbp are two entirely separate markets. However like any two markets they'll correlate from time to time to varying degrees against which people will attempt to apply a narrative

 

ultimately the narrative is irrelevant  any way as it is always retrospective ;-)

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26 minutes ago, reddog said:

When the £ slumped after Brexit, the FTSE surged with the logic being that because the pound was lower, profits from abroad when measured in £'s would be higher.

 

We now have both going down at the same time, what does this mean?  That the stock market is doing worse than it looks in the surface?

 

No idea ... but I'm glad I've got Gold.

 

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Some of the drop in the FTSE is hidden by the drop in the pound, but ~1% is still peeking out.

Given the drop in small cap UK companies is smaller, looks more like the effects of the Trump tax reform trade collapsing.

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One of the biggest fallers is Kingfisher (B&Q)...their sales have been poor...falling spend on home improvements is typically an early indicator of recession...

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On 8/18/2017 at 0:57 PM, Wayward said:

One of the biggest fallers is Kingfisher (B&Q)...their sales have been poor...falling spend on home improvements is typically an early indicator of recession...

Nah, it's just the weather innit...

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Incredible to think with sterling down 20% exports FELL.Of course we all know why we have been selling off our companies,houses,even gold for foreign currency.Keep people working 16 hours and pay them benefits to import goods and consume.What could go wrong?.Retailers think they have it bad now with tiny margins.They are going to have it a lot worse very soon when the pound tanks against the dollar again.The leveraged consumer rolls over and then the leveraged retailer who imports close to 100% rolls over as well.

 

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3 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Incredible to think with sterling down 20% exports FELL.Of course we all know why we have been selling off our companies,houses,even gold for foreign currency.Keep people working 16 hours and pay them benefits to import goods and consume.What could go wrong?.Retailers think they have it bad now with tiny margins.They are going to have it a lot worse very soon when the pound tanks against the dollar again.The leveraged consumer rolls over and then the leveraged retailer who imports close to 100% rolls over as well.

 

True, how can denial revert to reality....;)

 

 

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2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Nah, it's just the weather innit...

renters (increasing numbers) do not do up the houses/flats they live in, while i rent i wouldnt lift a finger for this dump, i did odds and sods when the rent was low, since it went up i spend zero, same as landlord, it could fall down around my ears for all i care about it.

so bandq and homebase can go whistle.

Edited by leonardratso

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On 18/08/2017 at 1:41 PM, VeryMeanReversion said:

My SIPP is now down £8K from peak but I'll only start to worry if WICAO says he has to go back to work :)   

Until then, I'll just yawn and collect the divis as long as it lasts.

 

Interestingly my complete balanced portfolio, which is still having some new money added albeit at a lesser rate, is at record highs when measured in £'s.  In EUR's though I'm down by 4.0% from peak.  

Year to date, netting off new money, is showing a healthy 5.1% increase in wealth.  Since I started in 2007 I'm still showing an annualised 7.0% return which is a real 4.1%. 

Good point about divi's.  They're still coming in as planned and I'm on for a good year.

Edit: Can't do maths.  Change 3.2% to 4.0% down.

Edited by wish I could afford one

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7 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

Interestingly my complete balanced portfolio, which is still having some new money added albeit at a lesser rate, is at record highs when measured in £'s.  In EUR's though I'm down by 3.2% from peak.  

Year to date, netting off new money, is showing a healthy 5.1% increase in wealth.  Since I started in 2007 I'm still showing an annualised 7.0% return which is a real 4.1%. 

Good point about divi's.  They're still coming in as planned and I'm on for a good year.

archoverP2P which i keep forgetting about i just signed into to have a look months after loading it, has been paying me 8.08% back PA, im getting about £40 every approx 6 days per month from £25K loaned out over 6 loans, worst is paying 4.5% best 10% (9months to 24months). Its been a cracker so far. I need to spread better though, more like 1K min over 25 loans might be a better strategy to cover any potential defaults that may loom large.

Edited by leonardratso

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12 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

archoverP2P which i keep forgetting about i just signed into to have a look months after loading it, has been paying me 8.08% back PA, im getting about £40 every approx 6 days per month from £25K loaned out over 6 loans, worst is paying 4.5% best 10% (9months to 24months). Its been a cracker so far. I need to spread better though, more like 1K min over 25 loans might be a better strategy to cover any potential defaults that may loom large.

I have a small portion of my portfolio with P2P, 3.8% of total wealth, but I chose to go with RateSetter who have a provision fund to give me a little protection against limited defaults.  Since I started with them in May 2014 I've managed an annualised 4.6%.  I started out in the 3 year market and for some time now I've been transitioning to the 1 year market as the loans mature.  Very soon I'll start moving from the 1 year market to a savings account as I expect I'll be buying a home in the Med within 18 months under current plans and want to use my P2P for part of the purchase.

If anyone wants to try RateSetter do PM me as I have a code that gives us both £50 if you sign up.

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2 hours ago, wish I could afford one said:

I have a small portion of my portfolio with P2P, 3.8% of total wealth, but I chose to go with RateSetter who have a provision fund to give me a little protection against limited defaults.  Since I started with them in May 2014 I've managed an annualised 4.6%.  I started out in the 3 year market and for some time now I've been transitioning to the 1 year market as the loans mature.  Very soon I'll start moving from the 1 year market to a savings account as I expect I'll be buying a home in the Med within 18 months under current plans and want to use my P2P for part of the purchase.

If anyone wants to try RateSetter do PM me as I have a code that gives us both £50 if you sign up.

yay, archover has a provision fund as well, for defaults. I have a ratesetter as well, i got it for the 10% offer on a 1000 quid for a year, im in the rolling market @ 3,3% this month.

 

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2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

yay, archover has a provision fund as well, for defaults. I have a ratesetter as well, i got it for the 10% offer on a 1000 quid for a year, im in the rolling market @ 3,3% this month.

Thanks for clarifying.  I thought it was only Zopa and RateSetter with a provision fund.

Great to hear you managed to sign-up during the £100 days.  Unfortunately I never managed anything back in 2014.

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3 hours ago, wish I could afford one said:

Thanks for clarifying.  I thought it was only Zopa and RateSetter with a provision fund.

Great to hear you managed to sign-up during the £100 days.  Unfortunately I never managed anything back in 2014.

yeah, they dropped it to 50 squid about a month after then the offer went away. Guy at work borrowed 5000 off ratesetter to fix his porch or conservatory or something, i think they gave it to him for something like 2% PA for 36 months, i dunno how though. They sent an email a while back about acquiring some of their debtors because they didnt believe they'd be able to fullfil their obligations to them, i cant remember quite what it was but it sounded like a pretty shrewd move to me from what i remember.

Wellesely have quite a decent provision fund, but they were in dire straights a couple of years ago but they have managed to get their debt down significantly over the years(probably by stopping tv adverts the numb nuts), theyve postponed their P2P and offer only bonds (which arent bonds really), they had goodish rates but they went to pot and are probably worse than average for P2P and bonds now, plus they seem to be all flashy front (as in web site) with ex banker back end(ie the people running it) so i wouldnt trust them as far as i can throw them.

I actually got put on the £100 for ratesetter from moneyvator link, i notice they sent out todays links with one of yours on it i think;

http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2017/08/annual-rebalancing-excel-calculator.html

Ill have a look at it tomorrow, might be something i can use.

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On 8/19/2017 at 3:46 PM, wish I could afford one said:

I have a small portion of my portfolio with P2P, 3.8% of total wealth, but I chose to go with RateSetter who have a provision fund to give me a little protection against limited defaults.  Since I started with them in May 2014 I've managed an annualised 4.6%.  I started out in the 3 year market and for some time now I've been transitioning to the 1 year market as the loans mature.  Very soon I'll start moving from the 1 year market to a savings account as I expect I'll be buying a home in the Med within 18 months under current plans and want to use my P2P for part of the purchase.

If anyone wants to try RateSetter do PM me as I have a code that gives us both £50 if you sign up.

 

Am I correct in thinking that you still cannot protect P2P lending from tax (ie. you cant wrap in ISA)? So presumably if you exceed the £500/£1000 interest p.a. limit (depending on your income tax rate) you need to complete a self assessment form each year?

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  • 225 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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