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Fred Harrison 18 year cycle

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Just read a piece in the guardian dated Jan 2016. Anyway Fed Harrison basically saying peak property 2019 then Game over! Says central banks and gov and made the first part of the cycle increase to quickly. Anyway give this guy credibility??

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2 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

Just read a piece in the guardian dated Jan 2016. Anyway Fed Harrison basically saying peak property 2019 then Game over! Says central banks and gov and made the first part of the cycle increase to quickly. Anyway give this guy credibility??

iirc Fred was predicting a collapse back in the late noughties.............along with a load of us on here.

Life isn't as simple as that clearly.

Edited by Sancho Panza

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4 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

iirc Fred was predicting a collapse back in the late noughties.............along with a load of us on here.

Life isn't as simple as that clearly.

Although He did predict the crash of to of July 2007 in 2005. Have to wait and see I guess.

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Just now, houseface2000 said:

Although He did predict the crash of to of July 2007 in 2005. Have to wait and see I guess.

Fred's main problem was that the BoE had read his playbook and had a lot of special team players they could bring on.

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That's plausible. People forget that house prices are a means not an end as far as the BoE is concerned.

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I bought his book over 10 years ago

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Boom-Bust-Prices-Banking-Depression/dp/0856831891/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1502972937&sr=1-3

51xN55f8ksL.jpg

I don't think even he imagined that successive governments would do absolutely ANYTHING in order to prop house prices up.  I know I didn't. 

Edited by bomberbrown
added picture of book

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On 17/08/2017 at 08:57, houseface2000 said:

Just read a piece in the guardian dated Jan 2016. Anyway Fed Harrison basically saying peak property 2019 then Game over! Says central banks and gov and made the first part of the cycle increase to quickly. Anyway give this guy credibility??

Worth a bounce - see Harrison's section in:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/29/heading-for-a-crash-global-economic-meltdown-panel-repeat-2008-china-slowdown

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On 17/08/2017 at 13:31, bomberbrown said:

I bought his book over 10 years ago

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Boom-Bust-Prices-Banking-Depression/dp/0856831891/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1502972937&sr=1-3

51xN55f8ksL.jpg

I don't think even he imagined that successive governments would do absolutely ANYTHING in order to prop house prices up.  I know I didn't. 

Using a Poker analogy the government went All In  trying to save the housing market, survive or crash, Cameron did the same in order to save his political career when he called an EU referendum, and to hell with the country.

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On 14/07/2018 at 23:44, Si1 said:

Harrison refers to 2019 as a mid-cycle crash/slowdown, with cycle peak in 2026. For what that's worth though - he was good on past timing but not so much on magnitude.

https://www.sharetherents.org/935-2/

https://www.sharetherents.org/forecasting-the-future-again/

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54 minutes ago, guest_northshore said:

Harrison refers to 2019 as a mid-cycle crash/slowdown, with cycle peak in 2026. For what that's worth though - he was good on past timing but not so much on magnitude.

https://www.sharetherents.org/935-2/

https://www.sharetherents.org/forecasting-the-future-again/

Since those articles he seems to have changed his opinion a little and simply said 2019 will be the peak year.

To be fair both views are compatible and we could see a few years of falls followed by a five year mini boom until 2026 peaking in real terms below the current peak. Markets never go in straight lines.

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i think there will be a lull/slight fall/stagnation for the next 18 months but nothing drastic.
January 2019 onwards will see a lot more for sale due to BTL's going bust/forced sales due to tax changes.

Next year sadly is probably the best buying opportunity for years, i hate the prices but sellers will always be very sticky with asking prices, unless we finally start to see meaningful interest rate rises very soon (1 or 2%) then i suspect stagnation is the best we will see.

for me with a long commute i honestly feel i only have another 6-12 months at most left in me. 40% deposit, can get a placed to suit me for 15 years. just going to see my deposit as gone accept that i have lost 10 years of my life to this bubble, the damage has been done already, i have suffered. will soon be time to draw a line under it.

its worth waiting for the start to middle of 2019 just to see if we do get interest rate rises, or mass BTL sell offs, without both combined we just wont see the 30-40% drops to fail value. its shit. but thats it. 


 

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2 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

i think there will be a lull/slight fall/stagnation for the next 18 months but nothing drastic.
January 2019 onwards will see a lot more for sale due to BTL's going bust/forced sales due to tax changes.

Next year sadly is probably the best buying opportunity for years, i hate the prices but sellers will always be very sticky with asking prices, unless we finally start to see meaningful interest rate rises very soon (1 or 2%) then i suspect stagnation is the best we will see.

for me with a long commute i honestly feel i only have another 6-12 months at most left in me. 40% deposit, can get a placed to suit me for 15 years. just going to see my deposit as gone accept that i have lost 10 years of my life to this bubble, the damage has been done already, i have suffered. will soon be time to draw a line under it.

its worth waiting for the start to middle of 2019 just to see if we do get interest rate rises, or mass BTL sell offs, without both combined we just wont see the 30-40% drops to fail value. its shit. but thats it. 


 

I see stagnation too as far as the eye can see.

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Since those articles he seems to have changed his opinion a little and simply said 2019 will be the peak year.

To be fair both views are compatible and we could see a few years of falls followed by a five year mini boom until 2026 peaking in real terms below the current peak. Markets never go in straight lines.

https://www.sharetherents.org/articles/9-august-2017-infamous-anniversary-avoidable-disaster/

He's pretty much Mr 18 year cycle but yep who knows, and as housing is regional the charts of real prices vary a lot. Edit: Charts for ref.

UK real prices (Nationwide adjusted for RPI, from Q1 1975) and annotated with the cycle stuff:

3BZPS6o.png?1

 

Regional breakdown of real prices, from Q4 1986:

5Oul36x.png?1

Edited by guest_northshore

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On 17/08/2017 at 11:57, Si1 said:

Doesn't Carney leave in 2019?

For some reason Carney is at the Farnborough airshow this morning talking about derivatives. No madder than usual, I suppose. Maybe he's booking his flight back to Canada?

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7 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

For some reason Carney is at the Farnborough airshow this morning talking about derivatives. No madder than usual, I suppose. Maybe he's booking his flight back to Canada?

Maybe there's a Freudian connection with air disasters

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As Nasim Taleb said, if central bankers really were like airline pilots for the economy then they'd all be dead.

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I think the notion of fixed period cycles for booms and collapses are a waste of time and I think anyone using them in an argument like Harrison does only weakens his position.

Having said that, I fully agree with his thoughts on our society being driven by rent seeking activity with the only solution being driven by real land reform. Unfortunately, the vested interests in this country are too strong (and if anything, are only gaining strength).

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On ‎16‎/‎07‎/‎2018 at 12:13, guest_northshore said:

UK real prices (Nationwide adjusted for RPI, from Q1 1975) and annotated with the cycle stuff:

3BZPS6o.png?1

 

Well it's a perfect 18 year cycle...if you ignore the peak in 1979/80 and trough in 1982/83 :rolleyes: if you include them, the troughs are either 5, 13 or 18 years apart.  Not a massive pattern there.

It's also worth noting that the trough in 2013 is way higher than the previous peak, whereas the trough in 1996 is similar to the previous peak.

The initial reading of that chart therefore seems to be that the next trough will either be in 2018, 2026 or 2031, and when it happens prices could be similar to 2013 prices in real terms, or 30% higher.  In other words I'm not convinced that there is much useful action that can be taken on the basis of this perceived cycle.

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12 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Well it's a perfect 18 year cycle...if you ignore the peak in 1979/80 and trough in 1982/83 :rolleyes: if you include them, the troughs are either 5, 13 or 18 years apart.  Not a massive pattern there.

It's also worth noting that the trough in 2013 is way higher than the previous peak, whereas the trough in 1996 is similar to the previous peak.

The initial reading of that chart therefore seems to be that the next trough will either be in 2018, 2026 or 2031, and when it happens prices could be similar to 2013 prices in real terms, or 30% higher.  In other words I'm not convinced that there is much useful action that can be taken on the basis of this perceived cycle.

I posted those to make the point about regional variation in trend and magnitude, not in support. I think there may be something to cycles but don't particularly buy the specifics either, or extrapolating from limited historical data. But I'm a pedant so graphed it once in nominal and real terms to look for myself, and now gets updated automatically with other stuff. On higher/low troughs/peaks etc, I have no idea except some dates you mention apparently reflect the' mid-cycle slowdown'.

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12 minutes ago, guest_northshore said:

I posted those to make the point about regional variation in trend and magnitude, not in support. I think there may be something to cycles but don't particularly buy the specifics either, or extrapolating from limited historical data. But I'm a pedant so graphed it once in nominal and real terms to look for myself, and now gets updated automatically with other stuff. On higher/low troughs/peaks etc, I have no idea except some dates you mention apparently reflect the' mid-cycle slowdown'.

Yeah not having a go at you, more at Mr Harrison!

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