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Monkey

Unemployment at 42 year low

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33 minutes ago, Monkey said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-40947087

 

so IRs are going to raise soon? 

 

oh they arnt lol

 Productivity was 0.1% lower than in the first quarter and remains at around the same level as its pre-downturn peak.Real wages falling by 0.5% as well.The truth of these figures is nobody is investing,nobody works more than the minimum due to tax credits and a large part of the population dont care about pay increases because their living standards depend on benefits not wages.The fall in wages is also due mostly to the affects of sterling so its been sucked abroad.

Looking at the sectors hiring they are all the sectors that will junk jobs quickly in a downturn.

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These are all non-jobs - zero hours contracts etc etc.

The only useful stats would be for decent, permanent jobs added (i.e. those paying at least £20K a year and full time).

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Worth adding the savings rate is at an all time low as well.............

Somethings gotta give.

Shaun Richards t'other day.

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2017/08/11/whatever-happened-to-savers-and-the-savings-ratio/

' UK households have responded to a tight squeeze on incomes from rising inflation, taxes and falling wages by saving less than at any time in at least 50 years. According to new figures from the Office for National Statistics, 1.7 per cent of income was left unspent in the first quarter of 2017, the lowest savings ratio since comparable records began in 1963.

This compares to what?

The savings ratio has averaged 9.2 per cent of disposable income over the past 54 years,

Comment

One of the features of the credit crunch was that central banks changed balance between savers and debtors massively in the latter’s favour. Measure after measure has been applied and along this road the claims of “temporary” have looked ever more permanent. Therefore it is hardly a surprise that savings seem to be out of favour just as it is really no surprise that unsecured credit has been booming. It is after all official policy albeit one which is only confessed to in back corridors and in the shadows. '

'

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1 hour ago, Errol said:

These are all non-jobs - zero hours contracts etc etc.

The only useful stats would be for decent, permanent jobs added (i.e. those paying at least £20K a year and full time).

 

£20k would be too low a threshold given tax credits etc.

 

Perhaps a more meaningful stat would be "number of jobs where the employee is not  claiming any state benefits".

 

I'd love to see that stat vs the total number of jobs

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High employment is an important support for house prices...disposable income may be squeezed but if folks are still employed and can afford their mortgage or rent then we don't see the distressed sellers (either OO or BTLers) that would result in strong downward pressure on prices.  Falling prices will come about because folks can no longer afford to pay the current unsustainable prices.  This may come about because of tightened credit conditions or falling incomes / unemployment.

If you think you will snap up a house when prices fall you might want to ask yourself why you will be in such a strong position when looking at the whole market the reason prices are falling has to be because folks are excluded from the market - you might be one of that excluded majority giving rise to falling demand and falling prices.  Its a contradiction - you can't have collapsing prices and at the same time everyone piling in.  Price will fall but only a minority will benefit.

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8 minutes ago, Wayward said:

High employment is an important support for house prices...disposable income may be squeezed but if folks are still employed and can afford their mortgage or rent then we don't see the distressed sellers (either OO or BTLers) that would result in strong downward pressure on prices.  Falling prices will come about because folks can no longer afford to pay the current unsustainable prices.  This may come about because of tightened credit conditions or falling incomes / unemployment.

If you think you will snap up a house when prices fall you might want to ask yourself why you will be in such a strong position when looking at the whole market the reason prices are falling has to be because folks are excluded from the market - you might be one of that excluded majority giving rise to falling demand and falling prices.  Its a contradiction - you can't have collapsing prices and at the same time everyone piling in.  Price will fall but only a minority will benefit.

Happily, a fair proportion of HPC members will be amongst that minority :D.

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1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Fake jobs!

Edit: What's wrong with me? I just don't believe a word they say, whatever it is!

Nothing Bruce

You are right, these are lies, damned lies and statistics

We know the truth, its horribly obvious if you go into a town centre during the week, loads of working age people milling listlessly around spending their income support benefit/bribe to not sign on as unemployed, in Primark and the like. The vast majority of whom have little job security, limited spending power, no savings, no pension, a shed load of unsecured debt and often a perverse sense of entitlement

When things turn, as they will eventually despite all the props, these people will go to the wall much much faster than has been seen in previous recessions/depressions. We know it, they probably know it, the politicians certainly know it, its all just a matter of time

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6 hours ago, Monkey said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-40947087

 

so IRs are going to raise soon? 

 

oh they arnt lol

Carney went back on that offer the minute he realised that unemployment would out fox him and actually go under what he thought possible, that man is such a pr**k. In reality he has a dog of an ecomony where he  is daily trying to sell it off  as a Rolls Royce.

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4 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Fake jobs!

Edit: What's wrong with me? I just don't believe a word they say, whatever it is!

You're on the right track Bruce, keep on digging you'll get it :-)

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2 hours ago, Wayward said:

High employment is an important support for house prices...disposable income may be squeezed but if folks are still employed and can afford their mortgage or rent then we don't see the distressed sellers (either OO or BTLers) that would result in strong downward pressure on prices.  Falling prices will come about because folks can no longer afford to pay the current unsustainable prices.  This may come about because of tightened credit conditions or falling incomes / unemployment.

If you think you will snap up a house when prices fall you might want to ask yourself why you will be in such a strong position when looking at the whole market the reason prices are falling has to be because folks are excluded from the market - you might be one of that excluded majority giving rise to falling demand and falling prices.  Its a contradiction - you can't have collapsing prices and at the same time everyone piling in.  Price will fall but only a minority will benefit.

The excess demand fuelling the crisis comes from landlords. 

Since their effect is out of all proportion to their number, a housing crash would benefit the majority.  

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So the wage rises to follow then as employers compete for labour....

That's the theory- yet in reality we have rising demand for food banks along with that near full employment- so either the stats are fiction or the wages being paid are so sh*t that even people with jobs can't afford to eat anymore.

I drove past a 'hand car wash' establishment today that was employing five guys to wash a single car- so assume ten minutes per car, six cars per hour washed and the minimum wage is currently 7.50 per hour- so those five guys cost 37.50 per hour to employ. In theory if you charge 10 quid a car you do make a small profit of 22.50 per hour.

But that assumes that your car wash is constantly busy with zero downtime and zero overheads- in reality those five guys are going to be standing around idle some of the time and there must be some kind of cost for the materials and the space they are renting- so it's a mystery to me how the numbers add up unless the people they are using are on some kind of 'freelance' or contractor deal that means they only get paid for the cars they wash- meaning they almost certainly don't earn the minumum wage in terms of the hours they spend at work.

There's a lot of games being played around the employment of 'flexible' labour that make the current employment figures highly suspect.

And has anyone noticed that the 'flexibility' of work has not been matched by an equal flexibility in debt obligations? Your employer might have the ability to treat you as a disposable commodity that can be turned on and off at will- but your creditors would not be at all happy if you passed this income variability on to them in the form of reduced or missed repayments- and in many cases the two parties are the same organisation- those corporations who call for flexible labour would be horrified at the suggestion that this idea of flexibility should be extended to their debtors- their advocacy of 'modern' flexible financial arrangements re wages does not extend to their outlook on debt repayment- on this matter they remain firmly fixed in the 19th century.

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14 hours ago, ThePrufeshanul said:

I'm betting that interest rates will rise. 

Carney is a banker who believes in the neoliberal ******** wedded to the Phillips Curve.

No, he like all other CBs are wed to neo-classical economic models, believing lower rates increases economic activity. This Muppet is telling them to prepare by using negative rates. 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/kenneth-rogoff-on-negative-interest-rates-next-recession-2017-8?r=US&IR=T

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1 hour ago, Blod said:

No, he like all other CBs are wed to neo-classical economic models, believing lower rates increases economic activity. This Muppet is telling them to prepare by using negative rates. 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/kenneth-rogoff-on-negative-interest-rates-next-recession-2017-8?r=US&IR=T

or there is not enough of a tax take for governments to pay the interest on their debt, so rates can never rise. 

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15 hours ago, Wayward said:

If you think you will snap up a house when prices fall you might want to ask yourself why you will be in such a strong position when looking at the whole market the reason prices are falling has to be because folks are excluded from the market - you might be one of that excluded majority giving rise to falling demand and falling prices.  Its a contradiction - you can't have collapsing prices and at the same time everyone piling in.  Price will fall but only a minority will benefit.

This is very narrow thinking, come on you need to up your game. Cheaper housing is probably the biggest single boost you can give to an economy. Yes it hurts in the transition phase but once prices have bottomed out the economy is in a position to benefit massively.

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2 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

This is very narrow thinking, come on you need to up your game. Cheaper housing is probably the biggest single boost you can give to an economy. Yes it hurts in the transition phase but once prices have bottomed out the economy is in a position to benefit massively.

Agreed, lots of new houseowners buying carpets furniture, curtains etc etc. Work for tradesmen, estate agents :(, The list is endless.

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17 hours ago, Errol said:

These are all non-jobs - zero hours contracts etc etc.

The only useful stats would be for decent, permanent jobs added (i.e. those paying at least £20K a year and full time).

No fcker works.

50% of parents at kids school have no apparent FT job.

The stats are fcked. Youd need to look at number of working age household not drawing benefits or working in the public sector.

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