New EU housing bubble

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Plenty signs about now that the ECB dodgy money is finding its way into EU property

The costa boom is back.

 

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Spain/Price-History

 

 

Look at this lovely chart...8 years of falling prices and 2 years of a new boom.

Quick,. get in before you lose out leave the EU.

Does beg the question, what will happen to all these UK owned pwopatees post BrExit.

Nothing would be my guess do to the fact the rich men at the top own plenty.

 

[anonguest]

11 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Plenty signs about now that the ECB dodgy money is finding its way into EU property

The costa boom is back.

 

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Spain/Price-History

 

 

Look at this lovely chart...8 years of falling prices and 2 years of a new boom.

Quick,. get in before you lose out leave the EU.

Does beg the question, what will happen to all these UK owned pwopatees post BrExit.

Nothing would be my guess do to the fact the rich men at the top own plenty.

 

Whilst I have no doubt various EU/ECB apparatchiks would love to raise property prices - and see it as a good things etc.......the chart does not show a 'boom'.

The chart shows annual percentage change in prices. All it shows is that prices have essentially stopped falling - and, relatively recently, reached a state where they are merely treading water.  Even if the chart continues, from hereon, to push upwards above the zero line it will take a while to reverse the cumulative falls due to it being below the zero line since around 2008.

In fact seeing it get back to an annual rate change around the zero line is to be expected.  I'm pretty sure even the infamous Japanese proprty market, after its 1990 peak, would probably have generated a similar looking chart (albeit maybe a bit more stretched out in the time axis).

Edited August 8, 2017 by anonguest

[stuckmojo]

Meh, I was in Spain in August (I went to Zaragoza, Haro - I love Rioja - and Madrid). Except for Madrid, I found that housing had become very affordable. Even relative to local wages (1,500 Euro pcm)

Though I'd agree that given human nature it will boom/bust again. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

31 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Whilst I have no doubt various EU/ECB apparatchiks would love to raise property prices - and see it as a good things etc.......the chart does not show a 'boom'.

The chart shows annual percentage change in prices. All it shows is that prices have essentially stopped falling - and, relatively recently, reached a state where they are merely treading water.  Even if the chart continues, from hereon, to push upwards above the zero line it will take a while to reverse the cumulative falls due to it being below the zero line since around 2008.

In fact seeing it get back to an annual rate change around the zero line is to be expected.  I'm pretty sure even the infamous Japanese proprty market, after its 1990 peak, would probably have generated a similar looking chart (albeit maybe a bit more stretched out in the time axis).

It's just starting as far as I can tell.

They couldnt give Spanish pwopatee away 2 years ago, now the agents i've spoken  to recently are very very very bullish.

All the ECB QE has to go somewhere, guess where it's going....

 

 

 

[Sour Mash]

Quick everyone - drop those ideas of Brexit and protect your house prices by getting in on the EU boom!

 

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Does beg the question, what will happen to all these UK owned pwopatees post BrExit.

In Spain, hit with the non-EU 45% Capital Gains tax for start.  Then there will be the special local tax treatment to fund  the locals life styles.

It will be open season, with lots of low-hanging British fruit.

[Kent Ambitions]

The chart shows house prices falling in real terms at the present time.

That is not a boom!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, Kent Ambitions said:

The chart shows house prices falling in real terms at the present time.

That is not a boom!

up 7% in a year isnt a the start of boom ?

[Fromage Frais]

Relatives in Spain thinking of selling due to the recent rises.

where considering Brexit hedge of a Spanish property.

Rising prices + post brexit taxes etc logically pushing them to consider selling.

Incidentally they where telling me renting their flat 700K euros rented easier and for more 10 years ago as in their part of Spain there is a short term rental ban.

The taxes in Spain are such a nightmare and like an earlier poster said they have a easy choice make locals suffer (no way) or cream a bit more off the foreign absent owners.

 

[ccc]

38 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

up 7% in a year isnt a the start of boom ?

Where does it show this in the graph ?!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

29 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Relatives in Spain thinking of selling due to the recent rises.

where considering Brexit hedge of a Spanish property.

Rising prices + post brexit taxes etc logically pushing them to consider selling.

Incidentally they where telling me renting their flat 700K euros rented easier and for more 10 years ago as in their part of Spain there is a short term rental ban.

The taxes in Spain are such a nightmare and like an earlier poster said they have a easy choice make locals suffer (no way) or cream a bit more off the foreign absent owners.

 

I was looking at it for a while but the risks are too great now.  The £ collapse has forced up prices for British buyers too. We've decided 100% not to bother now.

Agents very bullish as I said and none of them saying BrExit has had any effect...but when you google british buyers numbers in spain, the articles are at odds with what they commission paid agents are saying  

 

Before BrExit

 

https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2016/03/04/foreign-demand-british-buyer-numbers-exploded-2015/

 

After:

 

https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2017/05/19/foreign-demand-q1-british-resilient/

 

"Foreign demand for property in Spain rose by 15.6% in the first quarter of the year, whilst British, though falling 23.6%, but has not collapsed, reveal the latest figures from the Spanish Land Registrars’ Association."

Polishing a turd springs to mind.

Your relatives could sell up now but move where, to the UK, at these insane prices ?  Might as well stay

The BrExit thing wont effect property ownership I'd wager, but still a massive risk and anyone thinking the EU banking woes have been solved are kidding themselves.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

11 minutes ago, ccc said:

Where does it show this in the graph ?!

31K+ posts and you can't click on a link ? 

 

Nationwide house prices are also projected to increase by about 2% in 2017. More specifically, house prices are expected to rise by 7% in Barcelona and by 4% in Madrid, according to housing market analyst Borja Mateo.

EU dodgy money boom has started...

[anonguest]

40 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

31K+ posts and you can't click on a link ? 

 

Nationwide house prices are also projected to increase by about 2% in 2017. More specifically, house prices are expected to rise by 7% in Barcelona and by 4% in Madrid, according to housing market analyst Borja Mateo.

EU dodgy money boom has started...

'expected' is not actual!

When have you ever heard a house market analyst speak ill of the property market? Even when its genuinely falling they will try and find something positive to say.

I'm not disputing or doubting your suspicions, but.....come back and use the word 'boom' when it has happened.  Till then, as others have alluded, the whole stinking EU could go t*ts up before then and that 'expected' 7% rise will come to nowt.  Melodramatic and innaccurate or misleading headlines, of the sort the MSM is riddled with, is not what we expect here from HPC members dear chap. 

EDIT UPDATE:

I will add.....

Based on the simple table of numbers shown in that article a quick calculation shows that the (nominal) prices had fallen to less than 58% of peak values by 2015.  The subsequent upward rise in 2016 resulted in that figure bumping up to 58.7% of peak. A move so small its almost lost in the statistical noise.

IF the claimed 7% rise this year materialises then that will mean house prices averaging still less than 63% of peak values way back in 2008.  The inflation adjusted figures are of course even worse. In other words just a bump at the bottom IF we have indeed reached bottom.  The Japan experience says possibly not.

I see nothing here to lose any sleep over or get worked up about.

 

 

Edited August 8, 2017 by anonguest

[Peter Hun]

2 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

The taxes in Spain are such a nightmare and like an earlier poster said they have a easy choice make locals suffer (no way) or cream a bit more off the foreign absent owners.

For emphasis..The buying and selling cost far exceed anything you could gain by buying in Spain

[ccc]

2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

31K+ posts and you can't click on a link ? 

 

Nationwide house prices are also projected to increase by about 2% in 2017. More specifically, house prices are expected to rise by 7% in Barcelona and by 4% in Madrid, according to housing market analyst Borja Mateo.

EU dodgy money boom has started...

'Expected' is not actual. And Barcelona and Madrid are not 'The Costas'.

But apart from that yes you're spot on .

[Habitationi Bulla]

3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

It's just starting as far as I can tell.

They couldnt give Spanish pwopatee away 2 years ago, now the agents i've spoken  to recently are very very very bullish.

All the ECB QE has to go somewhere, guess where it's going....

Is already been going up significantly for some time in Barcelona and Madird, and places where there are jobs.

Cant find the original sourse, but this link states 20%
https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2017/07/13/spain-barcelona-property-prices-tinsa/

 

[Wayward]

I expect this will be very patchy and localised.  I am going to Madrid and Extremadura next month...I will let you know what the mood is like.  A lot of the British buyers will be buying off the back of property wealth and HPI in the UK...so the contagion spreads...but the 'wealthy' British buyers will typically be looking for a very distinct product in only a few regions, distorting overall market.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, ccc said:

'Expected' is not actual. And Barcelona and Madrid are not 'The Costas'.

But apart from that yes you're spot on .

A bit like London pushing up prices in the Shires, I'm expecting people to get in there before the miss out.

 

This is the start of it....

[iamnumerate]

5 hours ago, stuckmojo said:

Meh, I was in Spain in August (I went to Zaragoza, Haro - I love Rioja - and Madrid). Except for Madrid, I found that housing had become very affordable. Even relative to local wages (1,500 Euro pcm)

Though I'd agree that given human nature it will boom/bust again. 

Not surprising considering how much they have built.  They have very loose lending controls - NINJA mortgages exist there again.

[winkie]

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

For emphasis..The buying and selling cost far exceed anything you could gain by buying in Spain

So since when was buying anywhere has been buying solely to gain?.......buying to gain is what keeps prices high surely.

[PropertyMania]

11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I was looking at it for a while but the risks are too great now.  The £ collapse has forced up prices for British buyers too. We've decided 100% not to bother now.

 

Correct and also means British expats on Costas with shrinking pensions  are more like to sell and get 25% more £s than a couple of years ago. Add in Brexit uncertainty on future health care rights etc and I can't see the  British dominated coastal areas doing anything better than remaining flat.