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In 10 years we've had

2007 systematic financial collapse

2008-2015: Greek/Portuguese, Irish, Spanish debt problems

2015: Chinese wobble

2016: Brexit

2017: Everything's rosy.

Since 2007, at each and every turn the money printing (stealing) bankers have averted a crisis

The doomsday scenario has still not arrived, the banks still soldier on, the end is not in sight, or is it ?

What is the next crisis going to be ?

 

 

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Do you really need to ask Count? :lol:

I'd revert your attention over to the US. Significant stock crash (or rebalancing) at the end of the year seems likely, given the bulls staring at new record highs in disbelief themselves. Sub-prime auto crisis imminent but not as big as mortgage crisis debt, HOWEVER, everyone there NEEDS their car, and can sleep in it, so default on mortgage payments first? China going pop the Black Swan which keeps teasing.

Edited by Barnsey

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I read once (can't remember the source), that it is especially difficult to predict unknown future economic events. If you look back at predictions from so-called experts, they do particularly badly at predicting a crisis. 

But what the heck! I'll give it a go:

2019 - First wave of unemployment due to AI taking millions of jobs. New opportunities created for the savvy among us. 

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9 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Do you really need to ask Count? :lol:

I'd revert your attention over to the US. Significant stock crash (or rebalancing) at the end of the year seems likely, given the bulls staring at new record highs in disbelief themselves. Sub-prime auto crisis imminent but not as big as mortgage crisis debt, HOWEVER, everyone there NEEDS their car, and can sleep in it, so default on mortgage payments first? China going pop the Black Swan which keeps teasing.

I like to ask....so lurkers can get some idea of what is coming and what we've potentially missed.

One does get the feeling we are walking along the edge of a samurai sword.

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14 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I like to ask....so lurkers can get some idea of what is coming and what we've potentially missed.

One does get the feeling we are walking along the edge of a samurai sword.

A very long sword at that, but all swords come to a sharp point

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US recession.Earnings falls (50% in the S and P) will mean the leverage cant be carried by large parts of the economy.A huge chunk of derivatives will be shown to be worthless.Everything will be sucked into a deflationary vortex by that fact.

That might not kick it off,but its what will cause the most damage when it gets going.

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6 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

A very long sword at that, but all swords come to a sharp point

I eventually got the feeling someone had forged the sword into a ring. 

Around and around we'll go. 

To really smash house prices back to average price = 3 times average incomes we'd need (imho) a wave of forced sellers. Not a few people dying here or there, or fewer people coming to stay in the UK but people willing to write off gains, and even take losses just to be rid of a house. The only thing I can see on the horizon would be interest rate increases, or a land value tax subject to Corbyn getting in, or Tories eventually deciding to apply it only to properties worth over a certain amount). 

The former would penalise everyone with debt and reward savers, but it would cause a rout in the bond market and increase the government's borrowing costs gradually as gilts get reissued. Ironically, people who'd gone into bonds to make their money work harder might come a cropper if this happens. However, higher rates would lower house prices and if they rose quickly and high enough could cause defaults and repos across the country. should this happen you might expect banks to play the delay and pray game again. People going from repayment to IO. Those already on IO and struggling would be done. BTL peeps with 20 properties all with 75% LTV would be done (hurrah!!!). 

LVT would be an interesting one. It encourages those who don't work to move toe cheaper areas and people with under occupied housing to downsize. 

Like many on here I've been amazed at the resilience of house prices to what I've perceived to be epic shocks, especially Brexit!

The my conclusion is by now well known. If this can't shake it what am I still renting for? 

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Certainly they've got their excuses lined up.  DueToBrexit and DueToTrump.  These have been put in place to take the blame.

On the other hand, everyone is expecting a sudden Armageddon, but it's not like that.  Somehow they smooth out the collapse so that most people don't even notice.

Look at the standard of life we had in the UK in 1970's compared to present day.  If that decrease had happened overnight, there would be a revolution.  Because it's happened over 40 years, the boiled frogs don't notice.

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34 minutes ago, adarmo said:

The my conclusion is by now well known. If this can't shake it what am I still renting for? 

You sure you're not sitting at the desk of an empty estate agents right now? :lol:

As you say perhaps not strong enough domestic factors at the moment but the US will more than sort us out shortly.

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Unfortunately I think it will be war. The 1% have little use for the majority of people and they have just been "tolerating" us. The world is also over-populated. A war means they have more land and money for themselves with less fear of an uprising and the world population is decreased, just in time for automation as humans are no longer needed for work as the powerful will have their technology/robots. A final "hurrah" war to get rid of a few million people. Watch some of the Hunger Games films. I don't think that kind of future is that unrealistic anymore.

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

In 10 years we've had

2007 systematic financial collapse

2008-2015: Greek/Portuguese, Irish, Spanish debt problems

2015: Chinese wobble

2016: Brexit

2017: Everything's rosy.

Since 2007, at each and every turn the money printing (stealing) bankers have averted a crisis

The doomsday scenario has still not arrived, the banks still soldier on, the end is not in sight, or is it ?

What is the next crisis going to be ?

 

 

We are in a crisis now, but what we need now is for the inevitable event to show the masses at last what a mess the UK is in. Some are going to call it a tragedy, I prefer the world salvation.

This "event" will probably come from a place you least expect it 

Edited by Guest

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15 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

Unfortunately I think it will be war. The 1% have little use for the majority of people and they have just been "tolerating" us. The world is also over-populated. A war means they have more land and money for themselves with less fear of an uprising and the world population is decreased, just in time for automation as humans are no longer needed for work as the powerful will have their technology/robots. A final "hurrah" war to get rid of a few million people. Watch some of the Hunger Games films. I don't think that kind of future is that unrealistic anymore.

the world is nowhere near overpopulated, you are spewing the narrative forcefed to you your entire lifetime by your "landowning" masters

 

seven billion people man woman and child could each have 1000 sqft of land of their own and fit inside the state of texas. Look at the size of texas on a map of the world.

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26 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

You sure you're not sitting at the desk of an empty estate agents right now? :lol:

As you say perhaps not strong enough domestic factors at the moment but the US will more than sort us out shortly.

Sadly not, month end madness but taking regular breaks to keep me sane. 

Are you referring to US monetary tightening? 

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22 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

We are in a crisis now, but what we need now is for the inevitable event to show the masses at last what a mess the UK is in. Some are going to call it a tragedy, I prefer the world salvation.

This "event" will probably come from a place you least expect it 

My 2 cents on a prediction - fully agree the flash points and fall out are difficult to predict:

1. Stock market falls a little, but then increasing political uncertainty crashes the bond markets. Everyone rushes into corporate stock/bonds for yield and safety and they reach huge highs. The bond market is 10 times larger than the stock market, if even a 10th of its value moves to stocks, shares double. Who has more money/power now Apple,Amazon or 22 smaller EU states who can never pay their debt and can no longer tax their people more? EU 7% of world income but 50% of social care spend - unsustainable.

2. Governments attempt to implement a type of martial law but call it something else like "prevention of terrorist acts". They restrict movement of labour and capital in order to save themselves rather than the people they should represent.

3. Asset prices climb higher nominally but fall against inflation as the relative difference between owning something and having nothing becomes much larger. But inflation starts to increase faster as money becomes worthless. Look at NY as an example small apartments cost $7m. The young have rented them at low yield for decades because living in Manhattan is "cool". The asset is safe and yields something. This doesn't just apply to housing. Its about looking at assets where you retain ownership rights in a complete collapse. 

4. Sheeple's inability to understand mathematics mean they think they have more worthless paper for inflation but actually they have less of everything.This staves of revolution for a while yet.

5. Britain takes a battering in the GBP currency market but this turns out to be brilliant as more international financial service businesses and manufacturing business occurs here due to the lowering of the two biggest expenses to business - employee salaries and rent and the continuation of stable rule of law and property rights. Our holidays become more expensive..oh no. The USD has lost 97% of purchasing power in 100 years - they seem to have fared pretty well in that time despite congress.

 

 

 

 

Edited by katchytitle

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I agree with almost every poster so far and that is a bit spooky.  I would hate to think fru-gal is correct but I fear it could come to that.  Some of the almost mythical 1% have spent quite a bit on preparing bolt holes if we believe what we read in the media.  As for boiled frogs, I think that is spot-on.

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6 minutes ago, ThePrufeshanul said:

Italy and Greece (again) requiring bailouts - euro crisis. Handbrakes applied in China. Collapse of the Australian Housing market. American recession.

Property collapse. 

Hoooray.  Good times for all.

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36 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

Unfortunately I think it will be war. The 1% have little use for the majority of people and they have just been "tolerating" us. The world is also over-populated. A war means they have more land and money for themselves with less fear of an uprising and the world population is decreased, just in time for automation as humans are no longer needed for work as the powerful will have their technology/robots. A final "hurrah" war to get rid of a few million people. Watch some of the Hunger Games films. I don't think that kind of future is that unrealistic anymore.

OK lets say they have war and 100 million get killed which is the number combined killed in WW1 and WW2.

Do you really think thats going to solve your over population crisis

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44 minutes ago, thewig said:

the world is nowhere near overpopulated, you are spewing the narrative forcefed to you your entire lifetime by your "landowning" masters

 

seven billion people man woman and child could each have 1000 sqft of land of their own and fit inside the state of texas. Look at the size of texas on a map of the world.

I'm sure you are right but makes no difference as the landowners own most of the land so artificial scarcity of land is created in order to pack more and more people into the remaining undesirable bits or charge through the roof to live in the desirable bits. It has been going on for hundreds of years. I doubt even Corbyn could do away with this antiquated system. Perhaps when people upload their minds to the cloud we will all have the illusion of more space (if our masters allow the plebs to do that ;) ).

Edited by fru-gal

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I couldn't say what the next big crisis will be - we seem to have so many possibilities to choose from.. I do think that as the QE fairy dust wears off, the markets and asset prices crash, unemployment rockets, we enter a mammoth recession and we start to have to pay for all the economic growth we've seen over the past 100yrs or so, war will be pretty much inevitable as individuals and nations struggle in vein to retain the unsustainable quality of life they've grown used to.

Over the last century we've seen many boom and bust cycles of varying severity and frequency.. I do wonder if, given the increasing stakes and severity with each successive cycle, we're coming to the end of an epoch - the end of our society as we know it and total economic, social and perhaps environmental collapse. Tbh it's hard to imagine how we can pull back from the cliff-edge we've brought ourselves to.
 

1 hour ago, thewig said:

the world is nowhere near overpopulated, you are spewing the narrative forcefed to you your entire lifetime by your "landowning" masters

 

seven billion people man woman and child could each have 1000 sqft of land of their own and fit inside the state of texas. Look at the size of texas on a map of the world.

The world might not be overpopulated by the measure of population with respect to total available land area, however it certainly seems overpopulated in localised, desirable areas.

Potentially more important is the cost of supporting these seven billion - in terms of both energy and environmental factors..

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Old fashioned recession and unemployment leading to forced selling and no demand...who knows when..but it is only a matter of time.

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