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Lepista

Brexit - implications for the EU

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Can anybody point me in the direction of any analysis that has been done on the implications for the EU with the UK leaving?

- The change in income 

- The removal of the UK veto on decisions: Is there likely to be a flurry of re-introducing proposals that previously only the UK vetoed?

- Further political instability in Europe - Other net +ve contributors to the EU wanting a better deal? Overhauling of the EU in order to keep them?

- The impact of Brexit on the PIIGS?

- Individual countries unhappy about the treatment of the UK (+vo or -ve) and either vetoing decisions relating to brexit, or wanting their own special deals to continue trading / supplying labour to the UK?

- ...?

 

 

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Apparently there are none. The lack of responses indicates it must be a win for the the EU that the UK leaves, kind of wonder why they didn't kick us out years ago.

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Without the UK there wont be any visible counter balance to the Franco-German dominated influence which might make some smaller countries feel more vunerable. Greece being the obvious one which might simply choose to default sooner on their unpayable debts.

There's lots on analysis out there in the media but so much of it biased and no more than guess work even then.

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21 hours ago, Lepista said:

Can anybody point me in the direction of any analysis that has been done on the implications for the EU with the UK leaving?

- The change in income 

- The removal of the UK veto on decisions: Is there likely to be a flurry of re-introducing proposals that previously only the UK vetoed?

- Further political instability in Europe - Other net +ve contributors to the EU wanting a better deal? Overhauling of the EU in order to keep them?

- The impact of Brexit on the PIIGS?

- Individual countries unhappy about the treatment of the UK (+vo or -ve) and either vetoing decisions relating to brexit, or wanting their own special deals to continue trading / supplying labour to the UK?

- ...?

 

 

Brings out the bias in the media and Londonistan very much in the clear .. the 'think tanks', political class and media - the westminster / London bubble heavily let their media bias show and affect their output - The only ones who may have done any research is the EU and they are keeping it under wraps to their advantage unlike our very own press who immediately use any biased 'research' available to bring down the UKs negotiating stance or put it to disadvantage

Its surprising that no one has yet come out with figures for how much the EU should be paying us for accessing our markets .. that goes against the collective 'wisdom' .. we have been paying for ages .. so we should continue paying right ? theres shouold be no other possible starting negotiation point right .. its not even possible 

Edited by moneyfornothing
added comment

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8 minutes ago, moneyfornothing said:

Brings out the bias in the media and Londonistan very much in the clear .. the 'think tanks', political class and media - the westminster / London bubble heavily let their media bias show and affect their output - The only ones who may have done any research is the EU and they are keeping it under wraps to their advantage unlike our very own press who immediately use any biased 'research' available to bring down the UKs negotiating stance or put it to disadvantage

Its surprising that no one has yet come out with figures for how much the EU should be paying us for accessing our markets .. that goes against the collective 'wisdom' .. we have been paying for ages .. so we should continue paying right ? theres shouold be no other possible starting negotiation point right .. its not even possible 

My thought as well. The EU will have a turbulent time when we leave. The political balance so carefully crafted using the UK as a counterbalance will be gone. Trying to stabilise the political situation whilst at the same time as the piigs will be exciting to say the least. Then there's our missing contributions. For all the EUs hard talk they ultimately have to avoid damaging the Europeans economy, a 'punishment' deal for us is not one sided contrary to our biased media.

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7 minutes ago, Blod said:

My thought as well. The EU will have a turbulent time when we leave. The political balance so carefully crafted using the UK as a counterbalance will be gone. Trying to stabilise the political situation whilst at the same time as the piigs will be exciting to say the least. Then there's our missing contributions. For all the EUs hard talk they ultimately have to avoid damaging the Europeans economy, a 'punishment' deal for us is not one sided contrary to our biased media.

It's worth bearing in mind that every one of the PIIGS is currently growing faster than the UK, despite the fall in the value of the pound.

The EU faces no risk to their economy because there is no risk the UK will walk away.  We will take a deal that leaves everything as it is but takes away our political influence.

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The EU is a wonderful and benign organization that will sign a trade deal with the UK to make everything go well for both parties.  The UK will then repent of its ungratefulness and rejoin.  Meanwhile the Euro will continue making people in Euroland richer, Spain, Greece etc will continue in their paradise.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

It's worth bearing in mind that every one of the PIIGS is currently growing faster than the UK, despite the fall in the value of the pound.

The EU faces no risk to their economy because there is no risk the UK will walk away.  We will take a deal that leaves everything as it is but takes away our political influence.

There .. thats settled then .. now that we know it .. you know what the UK has to do right ? In a way, yes , if the EU pay us a few billions every year for accessing our markets, I dont see why we should walk away 

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6 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

It's worth bearing in mind that every one of the PIIGS is currently growing faster than the UK, despite the fall in the value of the pound.

The EU faces no risk to their economy because there is no risk the UK will walk away.  We will take a deal that leaves everything as it is but takes away our political influence.

Perhaps I should tell all the immigrants from the PIIGS to go home as things back home are wonderful

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23 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

Perhaps I should tell all the immigrants from the PIIGS to go home as things back home are wonderful

Hush, don't let reality impinge on the remoaners fantasy.

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23 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

Perhaps I should tell all the immigrants from the PIIGS to go home as things back home are wonderful

This is an excellent point that will simply be ignored from the usual suspects as per usual. Complete blinkers when it comes to this debate. 

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On ‎01‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 8:04 AM, iamnumerate said:

Perhaps I should tell all the immigrants from the PIIGS to go home as things back home are wonderful

 

2 hours ago, ccc said:

This is an excellent point that will simply be ignored from the usual suspects as per usual. Complete blinkers when it comes to this debate. 

 

Ahem. :lol:. Like reading a book with this lot.

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47 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I have met 3 Spaniards who have moved/will move to the UK in the last 3 months. 

That shows how bad life is outside of German core

Spanish really dont like moving away from home.

They really dont like he UK weather.

Are they working in the NHS, or has their SPanish dole run out and they claiming some form of HB/working/family tax credit

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1 minute ago, spyguy said:

That shows how bad life is outside of German core

Spanish really dont like moving away from home.

They really dont like he UK weather.

Are they working in the NHS, or has their SPanish dole run out and they claiming some form of HB/working/family tax credit

One is almost certainly not getting benefits (earns too much I would say at least 40k+).  The others are moving from the South of Spain to Manchester and are not getting benefits.  However none of them work for the NHS.  Talking about the weather when the two who are going to Manchester went to check it over, they mentioned the weather and not in a good way.

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22 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

One is almost certainly not getting benefits (earns too much I would say at least 40k+).  The others are moving from the South of Spain to Manchester and are not getting benefits.  However none of them work for the NHS.  Talking about the weather when the two who are going to Manchester went to check it over, they mentioned the weather and not in a good way.

Know a Mancunian who moved south for the weather. 

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On 31.7.2017 at 10:31 PM, nightowl said:

Without the UK there wont be any visible counter balance to the Franco-German dominated influence which might make some smaller countries feel more vunerable. Greece being the obvious one which might simply choose to default sooner on their unpayable debts.

There's lots on analysis out there in the media but so much of it biased and no more than guess work even then.

The Germans are actually worried that without the UK, the Latin/Med countries now have a majority, so EU will tend to adopt more statist and subventionist policies rather than the free market that the northern european countries had imposed. Merkel and Macron  seem quite chummy, and I wouldn't be surprised if there were reliefs for the piigs after the German election. Germany has a balanced budget, so can afford to give away a couple of percent of gdp to more than make up for the uk shortfall.

Edited by Steppenpig

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