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houseface2000

Nadeem Walayat is getting bearish

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13 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

Even our friend over at Market Oracle seems to be getting bearish. 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article59729.html

 

Thinks 2017 will see falls and 2018 could be worse BETTER. He bring out his forecast soonish, to be fair to him he was bang on the last mini boom.

 

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15 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

Even our friend over at Market Oracle seems to be getting bearish. 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article59729.html

 

Thinks 2017 will see falls and 2018 could be worse. He bring out his forecast soonish, to be fair to him he was bang on the last mini boom.

In a way his accuracy in predicting general election outcomes because of the link to house price trends and his confirming that political fortunes are so closely linked to house price trends is very bad news for a significant HPC because it so confirms the general HPC opinion that UK politicians will have great difficulty in getting out of the rut that is an economy effectively based on ever increasing house prices and selling houses to each other.   

It's been mentioned on HPC many times before but they will do everything they can to avoid a house price crash and Market Oracle has provided some real statistical proof to support that opinion which makes it extremely difficult to argue against.  

Any party will have real difficulty in ever selling real rebalancing of the general economy to any party's MPs and close supporters quite apart from their own property and land VIs (and at most they'll only have say about 3 years which isn't enough to implement a real rebalancing) - apart that is lip service to ordinary voters just before elections who might benefit from a real rebalancing and vote accordingly only to be reneged on.  It's also very bad news the future of the UK economy and the future of UK in general along with the future of the British people either in or out of the eu.

 

That's the general situation but for a medium term bright side for a significant HPC it's also possible to speculate that May saw that and realised that June 2017 might be the last reasonable window of opportunity (medium term things were only going to get worse) to "win" for maybe 4 years and effectively shunted the next election back another 2 years in the hope that house price trends might be on the way back up by then.  

Edited by billybong

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He predicted Brexit and Trump but got the latest GE result wrong.  He thought Tories would increase their majority.

He does get the housing and stock markets right almost always.

 

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Eh?

This is the guy who was associated as a 'proof' to a fierce exchange I had with a HPCer.... one who had more posts than I..... but has now left HPC and taken all his posts with him.

I'm anti-BTL and disagreed with the 'hpcer's' position in 2014, refusing to accept the BTLers would wipe out the young, and their day would come.  

The other 'hpcer' was strutting around, convinced he was right, telling me to go and see a Doctor for mental condition, for I couldn't see the brilliance of what he could see about the housing market, with this guy as a proof about BTLers getting into property winners.

doctor_BTLglorygloryglory.jpg

"Getting into housing" 2014.

Say hello to Section24 squeeze down... SDTL new charge.

It may interest you to all know that housing isn't very liquid.

Champion up 10% mad-gainz if you want in a Northern area like Sheffield.   Section 24 and debt...     

2016 the BTLer champion I argued with in 2014 was turning it all around, suggesting the BTLers have been tricked/innocents.  You got into your bed and backed your side.  You can't have it all ways for win.

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Wataloon is a complete fantasist. The proverbial blindfolded monkey. The echo housing bubble he sought absurdly to claim ownership of is going the same way as its predecessor, and for the same reason: it's completely unsupportable! Anybody who took his advice to get into housing circa 2013/14 is now facing a lifetime of distress if not outright ruin.

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16 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Wataloon is a complete fantasist. The proverbial blindfolded monkey. The echo housing bubble he sought absurdly to claim ownership of is going the same way as its predecessor, and for the same reason: it's completely unsupportable! Anybody who took his advice to get into housing circa 2013/14 is now facing a lifetime of distress if not outright ruin.

Wish i bought in 2013, just somewhere to live of course with a 40k mortgage is all i'd have needed.

Obvious what was gong to happen with FFL/HTB but was like a rabbit in the headlights.

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I remember the forecast from Nadeem Walayat. We all rubbished it here including myself. I was horrified at it though in case he was right, but the theory behind it shockingly seemed to make sense. Turned out he was unfortunately right. This time though I do agree with him

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17 hours ago, ElPapasito said:

He predicted Brexit and Trump but got the latest GE result wrong.  He thought Tories would increase their majority.

He does get the housing and stock markets right almost always.

 

He does seem to be pretty good. Everyone got the GE wrong.

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17 hours ago, ElPapasito said:

He predicted Brexit and Trump but got the latest GE result wrong.  He thought Tories would increase their majority.

He does get the housing and stock markets right almost always.

 

Not hard all you've got to say is they're going to rise.

Prices dont go down the Tory party are dead at the next election, they're losing voters all the time to death, whist Corbyns gaining the ever growing numbers of priced out young people.

I'll be holding my nose to vote Labour next time and i'm early 40s.

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21 minutes ago, Steppenpig said:

He does seem to be pretty good. Everyone got the GE wrong.

Yep, in theory it was a sound idea to go for an early election by the Tories - but utterly ruined by a cack-handed campaign.   Also, it became pretty clear that Labour were harder-hit by UKIP at the previous election than the Tories were (which of course was why Cameron promised the EU referendum, to neuter their threat), so bounced back a lot stronger with UKIP fading.

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So did he get the General Election as right as I did?

 And against quite a bit of smug Conservative big win calls + describing my own view as a 'warped narrative'.

And if there has been some Sheffield HPI as the BTLers doubled down into it, then let's see what the 2018 brings that he has concerns about in his latest article.

Section24 punishes those with BTL debt.   Enjoy your 10% mad-gainz now on moar BTLs.... but if it's bankruptcy ahead for some of the BTLers then they made their own choices.

 

On 4/18/2017 at 3:26 PM, Venger said:

Maybe during the election battling ahead some things will unfold (inc HPI+++) because uncertainty, political wrangling, sharp differences between Remainers and Brexit, and unleash some other forces of energy to complain about their situation.

Other people exist.  Other people who are not sharing in the mad-gainz at all exist.   It's not all about keeping the HPIers happy.

 

On 4/18/2017 at 3:45 PM, Little Frank said:

dream on.....

 

On 4/18/2017 at 3:47 PM, Venger said:

There is hard political fighting ahead. 

The HPIers/BTLers need a big pop on the nose.

People change their minds.

A mighty flame followeth a tiny spark.

 

On 4/18/2017 at 3:55 PM, Little Frank said:

No idea what any of that means.

As I said.... dream on....

 

On 4/18/2017 at 3:58 PM, Venger said:

Dream on about it not being your HPI-Forever vote-winning charter?

Like I said, big pop on the nose to all the complacent people who worship HPI and can't see that other people are not sharing in the paradise.

There is uncertainty for the politicians, and in a Brexit wobble, followed by snap election, there are conditions in place for hard political fighting and things to play out within it from this moment on.

 

On 4/18/2017 at 4:00 PM, Little Frank said:

Nothing personal. Just business. Economy ain't going to tank in the next 7 weeks. There won't be an HPC in the next 7 weeks & the Tories have already won the election.

Not sure why you seek to personalise everything but I'm not playing into your warped narrative.

 

On 4/18/2017 at 4:08 PM, Venger said:

People disagreeing with you does not represent hostility.

Although reacting the way you have done is childish.

There is hard political fighting ahead.  There has already been one shock from voters with Brexit.  Another with Trump.

There is a lot of political dissatisfaction out there.   Your HPI+ vote winning belief is not all to be taken forgranted.

 

On 4/18/2017 at 4:10 PM, Venger said:

And even if they do win... which I agree is likely, it may be a very different battle-scarred Conservative Government.

There is hard political fighting ahead.

 

On 4/18/2017 at 4:20 PM, BlokeInDurham said:

Why battle-scarred? I'd have thought the opposite would be true? There are two issues May suffers with that it seems to me this election will neatly solve for her: lack of a personal mandate as PM (insofar as we ever have such mandates under our system), and more pressingly a lack of a mandate for a specific post-Brexit relationship with the EU (the "divorce settlement", if you like). Given that May was not a Leaver and has been left holding someone else's baby, a baby she always thought a bit ugly, the polls give her the perfect window to solve these issues. Basically, May can propose state her preferred Brexit "style" (pretty much anything within reasonable limits), slap it in a manifesto, win the foregone conclusion of an election and "Hey, presto", she has a ready-made popular mandate supporting her own preferred Brexit position.

It will be very interesting what position she sets out.

 

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He predicted the Tories would increase their majority.

4 hours ago, Steppenpig said:

He does seem to be pretty good. Everyone got the GE wrong.

No they didn't.

What part of "Battle-scarred Conservatives" don't you understand, some 7 weeks before GE.... although admittedly against those who were bragging about fat winz for Conservatives.

As I recall it the vote-chart on HPC was quite high for a hung-parliament.... can't find the thread atm.

Like zugzwang, I've no idea why so many people gravitate to this guy as the source of wisdom.

That HPI++++++++ chart on his website makes me lol..... and those smuggers who told me of the HPI greatness the BTLers would going to have by buying in 2014.... well some of those BTLers are going to get a financial faceripping by Section 24.    

The lot that threw in with this guy and BTLers in 2014 never had a good laugh at about the situation the BTLers will be finding themselves in from later this year on the BTL threads that followed in 2015 after announcement of Section24... (and the effect ratcheting tighter to 2020)....  can't recall them making a single post.... but on other threads began positioning about BTLers innocence into a trap, having championed the BTLers (and themselves) as the leaders-of-knowledge in 2014, and renter-savers as idiots who needed to see Doctors for their lack of understand about foreverHPI and "BTLers-as-smart-winners".

"Getting into property 2014"  

Enjoy Section 24.

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2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Everyone should vote labour.

 

How else are we going to smash things to pieces for a reset? Voting for the Marxist lunatic is every patriots duty.

 

Strange times we live in.....

You may be right, though I would have to be drugged up or something to vote for them.

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On 31/07/2017 at 3:48 PM, billybong said:

In a way his accuracy in predicting general election outcomes because of the link to house price trends and his confirming that political fortunes are so closely linked to house price trends is very bad news for a significant HPC because it so confirms the general HPC opinion that UK politicians will have great difficulty in getting out of the rut that is an economy effectively based on ever increasing house prices and selling houses to each other.   

 

He got the GE wrong.

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On 31/07/2017 at 6:48 PM, ElPapasito said:

He predicted Brexit and Trump but got the latest GE result wrong.  He thought Tories would increase their majority.

He does get the housing and stock markets right almost always.

 

He's called the bull market from 2009.So fair play.

Some of his individual stock analysis can be a bit out there.

For my money,he plays the charts on housing without really assessing some pretty important fundamentals such as regulatory changes and tax changes.Just my view.

 

 

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20 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Wataloon is a complete fantasist. The proverbial blindfolded monkey. The echo housing bubble he sought absurdly to claim ownership of is going the same way as its predecessor, and for the same reason: it's completely unsupportable! Anybody who took his advice to get into housing circa 2013/14 is now facing a lifetime of distress if not outright ruin.

I laughed when he called a massive bull market in stocks in 2009/10...............I don't think he called it because he correctly predicted the path monetary policy.

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6 minutes ago, Mooping said:

He would have been correct regarding an increased Tory majority had it not been for May's breathtakingly abysmal campaign.

Id say it was because theyve spent 7 years pricing people out of home ownership and putting them into never before seen levels of debt.

Her policies for changing this were non existant, apart from you can rent off the corporations who we'll give planning permission to without a problem.

I predicted the outcome at day 1 of the election, no way did the Tory party have it in the bag.

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1 hour ago, Mooping said:

He would have been correct regarding an increased Tory majority had it not been for May's breathtakingly abysmal campaign.

 

1 hour ago, Mooping said:

I don't think anybody could have foreseen such ineptitude.

Well Conservatives had a new leader who had backed Remain into the Referendum.

Then switched and acted all Brexit-Massive, signing the A50 letter all by herself (cameras all around her) with her Mont Blanc pen... and then few days/weeks later announcing a GE.

Couldn't articulate her position.

In GE campaigning.. she wants a Red-White-and-Blue Brexit.*  (Video below.. fast and pacey - if a bit too sweary in parts for me).

"Strong and Stable".... repeat to headache.

Your theory doesn't hold because I looked in on other websites as the results were called, including that forum of Superior Minds Top 5%-ers, and there was astonishment from the posters at the way the results were coming in... as from many others (news all the way through..... papers next day)..... 

So the 'ineptitude' wasn't a factor having that many people on Conservative side doubt the result, until after the results for many who had been so complacent.  So wrong.  Wrong wrong wrong wrong.  

You weren't forecasting it in even with such a pathetic campaign, and all the laughs along the way at Corbyn being no threat.

Now you seemingly embrace it as the 'excuse' for you being so wrong along with Mr.W  (if he did in fact predict Conservatives to increase majority.. I haven't checked) - after the result.

And even if the campaign hadn't been so pathetic, what about all the youth vote..   I called it 7 weeks before GE that 'other people exist' as did others.

 

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On ‎31‎/‎07‎/‎2017 at 11:02 PM, zugzwang said:

Wataloon is a complete fantasist. The proverbial blindfolded monkey. The echo housing bubble he sought absurdly to claim ownership of is going the same way as its predecessor, and for the same reason: it's completely unsupportable! Anybody who took his advice to get into housing circa 2013/14 is now facing a lifetime of distress if not outright ruin.

I remember I actually emailed Wallyloon ;-) about a terrace house we viewed for sale in prime Oxford asking him if he thought it looked overpriced. It was on at £250k and he basically said buy it because you wont believe how cheap it will look in 3 years time. Bearing in mind latterly everyone was saying wont touch property at the time it will tank! It took 5 months to go under offer (we didn't buy it). Recently saw it on the land reg sold again at £420k. REGRET! that £170k tax free could have change my life

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37 minutes ago, houseface2000 said:

I remember I actually emailed Wallyloon ;-) about a terrace house we viewed for sale in prime Oxford asking him if he thought it looked overpriced. It was on at £250k and he basically said buy it because you wont believe how cheap it will look in 3 years time. Bearing in mind latterly everyone was saying wont touch property at the time it will tank! It took 5 months to go under offer (we didn't buy it). Recently saw it on the land reg sold again at £420k. REGRET! that £170k tax free could have change my life

QE and zirp to bail out the HPIers and the HPI+ spreadsheet chasers, as the 'victim' crew spent years telling that no-one knows what they are doing.

If you emailed him you obviously held/hold him in high regard, but he's your friend not mine in your thread here.   He got it right for you as many HPCers wallowed in 'no-one who owns/buys a property knows what they're doing and are victims and pity the homeowner'.... with master-chief HPI+++ spreadsheet chaser repoed early 90s blaming advertising on everything in thread upon thread, and his own choice HPI+ spreadsheet not having anything to do with it. 

You're point being that he's a master-guru over some of those here?  

You didn't get your £ 'mad-gainz' profitz.   I want a wipeout of those who look upon housing as vehicle to chase profitz.  I'm glad you didn't buy with your outlook and lost out on your mad-gainz... treating houses £170K profits.  I didn't buy either but on grounds that I won't buy against people who are all in it for £ HPI+++/BTL, and market is saturated with such people.  Speculating HPI++++ profit chasers on houses.

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