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What a day this is turning out to be... great HPC news everywhere!

Just logged in to Rightmove... anyone seeing a similar increase in volume of price drops? ;)

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, 10YearLurker said:

Yep. I've been lurking on this site for a decade and it finally looks (well, feels) like we're at a turning point. 

Time for a little dance.

Seriously?

You're not going to tell us all next month you've bought a house and prices have stopped falling ate you?

 

We'll be so disappointed if u do :lol:

 

Welcome, why lurk for so long?

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1 hour ago, 10YearLurker said:

Yep. I've been lurking on this site for a decade and it finally looks (well, feels) like we're at a turning point. 

Time for a little dance.

i googled house price crash and this site came up tops too. 

i imagine some more lurkers will be along soon. 

good choice of forum name.  perfect alignment between MSM and googling HPC

 

 

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1 hour ago, 10YearLurker said:

Yep. I've been lurking on this site for a decade and it finally looks (well, feels) like we're at a turning point. 

Time for a little dance.

Oh dear....another one.

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Lots of subtle changes here.  Seen houses down 10-15%, but one or two down 25% - There's the obvious kite flying in parts at the start of the process, but then there's a slow burn when it's dawning on folk there's in a bit of strife.

I'm buying soon, but that soon keeps getting pushed out a month, 2, 6....

I genuinely think something is happening.

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2 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

Lots of subtle changes here.  Seen houses down 10-15%, but one or two down 25% - There's the obvious kite flying in parts at the start of the process, but then there's a slow burn when it's dawning on folk there's in a bit of strife.

I'm buying soon, but that soon keeps getting pushed out a month, 2, 6....

I genuinely think something is happening.

The "I'm buying soon" thing is interesting because, for anyone under 40, as prices start to fall they'll be thinking "If I wait another year, I can get a free £1000 to add to my deposit, and that deposit will probably buy a bigger house in a year too". The props that the government created could well start sucking momentum out of the market once prices turn. Unintended consequences and all that.

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Just now, Darby Ram said:

The "I'm buying soon" thing is interesting because, for anyone under 40, as prices start to fall they'll be thinking "If I wait another year, I can get a free £1000 to add to my deposit, and that deposit will probably buy a bigger house in a year too". The props that the government created could well start sucking momentum out of the market once prices turn. Unintended consequences and all that.

No I agree, which is what is putting us off, but we've a 14 year old who's known renting since she was 10 and wants to put down friend roots.  I think we'd take 20-30% off prices now and suck up any more losses.  But, it does put you off buying, no doubt

 

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4 minutes ago, Darby Ram said:

The "I'm buying soon" thing is interesting because, for anyone under 40, as prices start to fall they'll be thinking "If I wait another year, I can get a free £1000 to add to my deposit, and that deposit will probably buy a bigger house in a year too". The props that the government created could well start sucking momentum out of the market once prices turn. Unintended consequences and all that.

What's being under 40 got to do what it? I put spare cash into my sipp and this will be a repayment vehicle for a future IO mortgage. I don't need to worry about any disadvantage of age and mortgage term that way.

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4 hours ago, Tempus said:

What's the average salary in London? Probably about £30k http://www.itv.com/news/london/2015-11-19/how-does-your-salary-compare-to-the-rest-of-london/

Let's borrow 5x times that. £150K. Add a 10% deposit and we'll have £165k.

That is so laughably short of buying you anything in the whole of London that I see no reason to celebrate any time soon. 

£34,320 in 2015 according to ONS so could poss add 2%, but even without increasing that your average couple on an average salary would have £64,640 between them which multiplied by 5 would all £343,200 on a mortgage, then let's give them a 10% deposit since they've likely been saving for a million years and hey presto they can afford a shoebox. It's not much but they can call it home. 

Borrowing that over 30 years repayment at a rate of 3.3% is bout £1,500 a month

Now, let's assume they're both hapless graduates with student loans they would take home £4,136 per month (£2,118 each) which is for the time being affordable although not living like a king for sure. You could live in this http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-66533465.html and might get it for below asking. Who knows. 

Can people in London afford to buy on their own? Not unless they're doing comparatively better than their peers. Then again, can they afford to rent on their own? Historically I wonder how many singletons could afford to buy a house on their own?

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2 hours ago, Si1 said:

What's being under 40 got to do what it? I put spare cash into my sipp and this will be a repayment vehicle for a future IO mortgage. I don't need to worry about any disadvantage of age and mortgage term that way.

Just the nudge factor of the Lifetime ISA. A SIPP is a better option for most people but I expect more will open a Lifetime ISA precisely because its geared towards housing. 

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Skipton being your only choice for a non stocks and shares version, would have expected more options by now 

4 hours ago, Darby Ram said:

Just the nudge factor of the Lifetime ISA. A SIPP is a better option for most people but I expect more will open a Lifetime ISA precisely because its geared towards housing. 

 

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Hello again everyone

So people wonder why I'd only lurk when I get a series of responses like this for an innocuous post like the one I wrote...

Ten - actually probably more than ten - years ago, I discovered this site. I know there is no way of verifying this but I bet I've read these forum pages more than any human on earth. No, really. I remember when every other post had Eric's 'Liar Loans' daubed in bright red on it. I remember when Jonathon Davies (sp?) was all over it. I remember when the charts on the front page were actually updated. In short, I remember the good, bad old days. 

I held off buying a house when I was a poor man, I held off buying a house when I was a rich man. I've essentially changed my entire life because of this site. I have, genuinely lurked for ten years and have 100% supported the cause even though it's probably cost me over the years... 

I did do a couple of posts as 'bearfacedcheek' or 'barefacedrobbery' or something perhaps ten years ago, but realised posting wasn't for me. It looks like it still isn't. 

Peter, 42, London.

 

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5 minutes ago, 10YearLurker said:

Hello again everyone

So people wonder why I'd only lurk when I get a series of responses like this for an innocuous post like the one I wrote...

Ten - actually probably more than ten - years ago, I discovered this site. I know there is no way of verifying this but I bet I've read these forum pages more than any human on earth. No, really. I remember when every other post had Eric's 'Liar Loans' daubed in bright red on it. I remember when Jonathon Davies (sp?) was all over it. I remember when the charts on the front page were actually updated. In short, I remember the good, bad old days. 

I held off buying a house when I was a poor man, I held off buying a house when I was a rich man. I've essentially changed my entire life because of this site. I have, genuinely lurked for ten years and have 100% supported the cause even though it's probably cost me over the years... 

I did do a couple of posts as 'bearfacedcheek' or 'barefacedrobbery' or something perhaps ten years ago, but realised posting wasn't for me. It looks like it still isn't. 

Peter, 42, London.

 

I was a bit baffled by the response that you got. Sounds like you're fully entitled to a little dance.

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9 minutes ago, 10YearLurker said:

Hello again everyone

So people wonder why I'd only lurk when I get a series of responses like this for an innocuous post like the one I wrote...

Ten - actually probably more than ten - years ago, I discovered this site. I know there is no way of verifying this but I bet I've read these forum pages more than any human on earth. No, really. I remember when every other post had Eric's 'Liar Loans' daubed in bright red on it. I remember when Jonathon Davies (sp?) was all over it. I remember when the charts on the front page were actually updated. In short, I remember the good, bad old days. 

I held off buying a house when I was a poor man, I held off buying a house when I was a rich man. I've essentially changed my entire life because of this site. I have, genuinely lurked for ten years and have 100% supported the cause even though it's probably cost me over the years... 

I did do a couple of posts as 'bearfacedcheek' or 'barefacedrobbery' or something perhaps ten years ago, but realised posting wasn't for me. It looks like it still isn't. 

Peter, 42, London.

 

Hi Peter,

I think you need a thick skin to post anywhere on the internet.  There are a lot of crazies out there.

You must have see over the years all the 50 post trolls with their:

"I've been lurking for a while

Prices are mad

I'm going to buy anyway"

bulls**t posts ?  That really wears thin after a decade of being being robbed to support those *****s

That's why we are all a bit cynical at times.

Despite what the trolls will tell you, everyone is made feel welcome here ( unless you're a troll ) and any facts/figures./anecdotes are welcome.

We look forward to your posts.

You've joined the party just as the drugs have kicked in and everyone's dancing like nutters.

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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26 minutes ago, 10YearLurker said:

Hello again everyone

So people wonder why I'd only lurk when I get a series of responses like this for an innocuous post like the one I wrote...

Ten - actually probably more than ten - years ago, I discovered this site. I know there is no way of verifying this but I bet I've read these forum pages more than any human on earth. No, really. I remember when every other post had Eric's 'Liar Loans' daubed in bright red on it. I remember when Jonathon Davies (sp?) was all over it. I remember when the charts on the front page were actually updated. In short, I remember the good, bad old days. 

I held off buying a house when I was a poor man, I held off buying a house when I was a rich man. I've essentially changed my entire life because of this site. I have, genuinely lurked for ten years and have 100% supported the cause even though it's probably cost me over the years... 

I did do a couple of posts as 'bearfacedcheek' or 'barefacedrobbery' or something perhaps ten years ago, but realised posting wasn't for me. It looks like it still isn't. 

Peter, 42, London.

 

Welcome to the forum 10YearLurker. Please keep posting,

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55 minutes ago, 10YearLurker said:

Hello again everyone.

Hi Peter, I'm coming up 39 and have been holding off almost as long as you. Feels almost like time for dancing, but ever had that experience where you finally feel like it and then a really really sh1t song comes on? ;)

I'm giving it another few months before I bustamove!

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49 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Hi Peter,

I think you need a thick skin to post anywhere on the internet.  There are a lot of crazies out there.

You must have see over the years all the 50 post trolls with their:

"I've been lurking for a while

Prices are mad

I'm going to buy anyway"

bulls**t posts ?  That really wears thin after a decade of being being robbed to support those *****s

That's why we are all a bit cynical at times.

Despite what the trolls will tell you, everyone is made feel welcome here ( unless you're a troll ) and any facts/figures./anecdotes are welcome.

We look forward to your posts.

You've joined the party just as the drugs have kicked in and everyone's dancing like nutters.

 

Well Put Count and welcome Peter I quite like the kicking bit I have had a few maybe I like that sort of thing.......:P

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9 hours ago, Si1 said:

What's being under 40 got to do what it? I put spare cash into my sipp and this will be a repayment vehicle for a future IO mortgage. I don't need to worry about any disadvantage of age and mortgage term that way.

Bear in mind that 75% of any money taken from a SIPP will be taxable at your (then) marginal rate of income tax.

So if the IO mortgage principal is, for example, £100,000 then likely it will not be tax-efficient for you to withdraw this amount from the SIPP in any one tax year.

I am not an accountant but I understand that the 25% tax free withdrawal from a SIPP may all be taken 'up front', leaving the remaining 75% of the SIPP liable for tax when it too is later withdrawn. If this is indeed the case and you can also accumulate a SIPP of value £400,000, then the required £100,000 can be withdrawn tax free.

It might be advisable to run your plan past a qualified accountant.

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2 hours ago, The Spaniard said:

I am not an accountant but I understand that the 25% tax free withdrawal from a SIPP may all be taken 'up front', leaving the remaining 75% of the SIPP liable for tax when it too is later withdrawn. If this is indeed the case and you can also accumulate a SIPP of value £400,000, then the required £100,000 can be withdrawn tax free.

I'm partly making use of that method. An example to clear £100K I/O mortgage:

My current effective marginal tax rate is 65%.   Give up £140K net income to get £400K in SIPP (over several years). Use £100K (25%) to pay off mortgage at age 55.  £300K left in pension to withdraw later at <20% average rate - so keep at least £240K of it. Not bad for effectively giving up £40K earlier. (140-100).  Numbers based on 0 inflation, 0 investment returns/overheads to simplify.

The risk is in the pension rules which can change at any time. That's why I do a repayment but will use the SIPP 25% to clear early, would save my ~10 years on the mortgage.

 

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