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crashmonitor

Astra Zeneca Shares down 15% on drug trial failure

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Guess I can't be the only one on here to have taken a bit of a hit this morning. Shares crash, in spite of profit rise. Shows  these Pharmas sail close to the wind with regard to the share price, doesn't take a lot does it.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4734586/AstraZeneca-lung-cancer-study-fails-big-setback-company.html

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Wouldn't you just know it a drug called Mystic.....presumably Astra were relying on reading runes and bloody crystal balls.

If I hadn't got any Count I might be tempted at catching the knife.

 

Edited by crashmonitor

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pharmas are supposed to be steady Eddie defensives???  I have GSK...down this month but income has been good over the years

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Provident Financial another income player that has about halved in price. The choice of recovery stocks are many.

I have first hand experience of a Prov customer. My cousin gets her hands on these Vanquis cards etc. and defaults every time. Just gets the debt written off and never has any intention of repaying except via a family bailout. 

Edited by crashmonitor

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59 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Provident Financial another income player that has about halved in price. The choice of recovery stocks are many.

I have first hand experience of a Prov customer. My cousin gets her hands on these Vanquis cards etc. and defaults every time. Just gets the debt written off and never has any intention of repaying except via a family bailout. 

The Provy's business model has always looked like a failure to me.

Charging 2000% APR isn't much use if you're lending to people who never intend paying any of it back. Most of their 'customers' I know are permanent benefit claimants or workers already so far in debt an extra couple of grand is neither here nor there.

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2 hours ago, longgone said:

haha cash in the bank far better :lol:

 

well under the fscs limit anyway 

So if you'd invested £10K in AZN late 2012 at a price of £30 a share and reinvested the dividend during that time you'd be well over the £15K mark inside an ISA even at todays 15% drop price.

In cash you'd have a safe £10.8K.

Hmmm....

You've got to have some skin in the game, even if it gets the odd rash;)

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49 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

The Provy's business model has always looked like a failure to me.

Charging 2000% APR isn't much use if you're lending to people who never intend paying any of it back. Most of their 'customers' I know are permanent benefit claimants or workers already so far in debt an extra couple of grand is neither here nor there.

A very good summary, and indeed the family member was a benefit claimant.

Jeeze are you a mind reader. She took me for a couple grand, and then presumably did the same to Prov shareholders when Vanquis restored her credit after miraculously getting repaid.

Edited by crashmonitor

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20 minutes ago, Noginthenog said:

So if you'd invested £10K in AZN late 2012 at a price of £30 a share and reinvested the dividend during that time you'd be well over the £15K mark inside an ISA even at todays 15% drop price.

In cash you'd have a safe £10.8K.

Hmmm....

You've got to have some skin in the game, even if it gets the odd rash;)

and if the drop was 40% ? :lol:

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4 hours ago, Wayward said:

pharmas are supposed to be steady Eddie defensives???  I have GSK...down this month but income has been good over the years

Yep you can't get much more blue chip than Astra. Woodfood must be a bit shell shocked with both Astra and Prov bombing, two of his favourites.

GSK should be ok, main concern is it more casino than a hedge fund.  A price to book of sixteen, geared on steroids, and a huge operating margin and return on capital in compensation for that.

Like Woodford I ditched GSK....wrong one obviously

 

Edited by crashmonitor

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9 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

15% off isn't even close to average down territory...........................you're just shaving the top edge of the chart.

AZN2.gif

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10 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

15% off isn't even close to average down territory...........................you're just shaving the top edge of the chart.

AZN2.gif

Depends when you bought, that's quite a big timeframe. Granted this year it is back to where we were in January. Has been higher prior to that.

 

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I added AZN to my HYP in November 2011 spending £3,994.  After today's fall that has now turned in to £6,184 which is a CAGR on capital value of right on 8%.  On top of that over that period I've been paid £1,521 in dividends which is 38% of my original investment.

So a big price move in a single day but a nice demonstration of what time in the market can achieve.  The only action I took today was to log in to my FIRE tracking spreadsheet to grab the above data.

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1 hour ago, crashmonitor said:

Depends when you bought, that's quite a big timeframe. Granted this year it is back to where we were in January. Has been higher prior to that.

 

Divi cover 1.3 last time I checked.Divi cover in the FTSE 100 is sparse these days particularly the traditional big payers like RDSB,BP and the two big pharmas.

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21 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

I added AZN to my HYP in November 2011 spending £3,994.  After today's fall that has now turned in to £6,184 which is a CAGR on capital value of right on 8%.  On top of that over that period I've been paid £1,521 in dividends which is 38% of my original investment.

So a big price move in a single day but a nice demonstration of what time in the market can achieve.  The only action I took today was to log in to my FIRE tracking spreadsheet to grab the above data.

Key thing with buy and hold is not to buy at the top of the market...........................................<_<

HYP is a really good strategy long term as long as you manage to avoid the 2008 type banking routs which took out a chunk of the top divi payers at the time.Especially if you take the scrip.

 

Edited by Sancho Panza

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3 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Divi cover 1.3 last time I checked.Divi cover in the FTSE 100 is sparse these days particularly the traditional big payers like RDSB,BP and the two big pharmas.

AZN was 2.6 when I bought.

FTSE100 divi cover is only 0.85 :ph34r: FTSE250 is 1.66.

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2 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Key thing with buy and hold is not to buy at the top of the market...........................................<_<

HYP is a really good strategy long term as long as you manage to avoid the 2008 type banking routs which took out a chunk of the top divi payers at the time.Especially if you take the scrip.

 

But where is the top of the market?  During my accumulation phase I'm just continuing to buy the worst performing asset class which so far has pretty much done the rebalancing for me.  During drawdown I'll spend the dividends and the leftovers will continue to buy the worst performing asset class or top-up my cash if less than 3x spending.  I may be forced to rebalance periodically during this period I suspect.

HYP is only a small portion of my portfolio but it was useful in pushing my divi's to my target 3%.  It's now only 7.1% of my overall portfolio less cash/cash like holdings but still brings in 16.3% of my dividends.

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13 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

AZN was 2.6 when I bought.

FTSE100 divi cover is only 0.85 :ph34r: FTSE250 is 1.66.

Yeah,a lot of the blue chips in the 100 look expensive for the earnings you're buying,especially when you consider the generous monetary and fiscal policy that's been underwriting growth in the Eurozone/USA.GDP nominal not per capita natch.

The 250 is full of a lot of frothy crud like Countrywide that offer a decent shorting opportunity,also some genuinely good businesses.

Edited by Sancho Panza

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22 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Divi cover 1.3 last time I checked.Divi cover in the FTSE 100 is sparse these days particularly the traditional big payers like RDSB,BP and the two big pharmas.

They are stretching to sustain dividend growth especially RDSB at 7.0% and 0.2 cover.

Tbf to Astra 5.0 % and 1.3 is  the same as say 3.25% and 2.0 cover except they are returning money to shareholders as opposed to looking to grow.

I'm giving the post crash stats which are more appealing than yesterday

 

Edited by crashmonitor

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Just now, Sancho Panza said:

Yeah,a lot of the blue chips in the 100 look expensive for the earnings you're buying,especially when you consider the generous monetary and fiscal policy that's been underwriting growth in the Eurozone/USA.GDP nominal not per capita natch.

The 250 is full of a lot of frothy crud like Countrywide that offer a decent shorting opportunity,also some genuinely good businesses.

Per capita doesn't matter for companies though.  The more people the more plastic tat can be sold and the more GDP.  No requirement for sustainability or quality of life to be considered when it comes to the flawed for average man GDP.

FTSE100 doesn't look expensive on a CAPE basis though.  Maybe even about fair value...  Controversial I know...

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4 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

They are stretching to sustain dividend growth especially RDSB at 7.0% and 0.2 cover.

Tbf to Astra 5.0 % and 1.3 is  the same as say 3.25% and 2.0 cover except they are returning money to shareholders as opposed to looking to grow.

 

AZN have no dividend growth though.  The same divi 2011 through 2016.  It looks like growth but it's just £ devaluation.

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18 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

But where is the top of the market?  During my accumulation phase I'm just continuing to buy the worst performing asset class which so far has pretty much done the rebalancing for me.  During drawdown I'll spend the dividends and the leftovers will continue to buy the worst performing asset class or top-up my cash if less than 3x spending.  I may be forced to rebalance periodically during this period I suspect.

HYP is only a small portion of my portfolio but it was useful in pushing my divi's to my target 3%.  It's now only 7.1% of my overall portfolio less cash/cash like holdings but still brings in 16.3% of my dividends.

You never know the top of the market till it's past.Despite what all the technical traders say...........

As I age,I tend to trade greed and fear more more than financial data,like if it's going up,then it's going up and all those wunderkind in the square mile will find a reason to buy it.You've just to not be greedy with those trades.

I think if you're still in the game after ten years you're doing something right.I've seen a number of people lose their shirts in a variety of ways over the years.

One momo trade I think has turned/or is about to, is Rightmove( market cap £3.9bn).And the strange thing is it's revenue is lower than Mothercare's (market cap £177mn)

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/financials?s=RMV:LSE

£220mn

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/financials?s=MTC:LSE

£660mn.

Just sayin...........it's a weird world.

 

DYOR ....

 

RMV.png

Edited by Sancho Panza

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