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fru-gal

Housing, not student fees, is the key to the young vote

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Very true I worked out that I have lost £105k compared to what I would have paid if house prices had gone up with inflation from 1997 and if interest rates had stayed the same.

If my road* now if prices had gone up inflation the price would be £116k at 7% interest rates (assuming 100% mortgage) it would cost in total £245,981, £820 pcm.

In reality it costs about £400k at 3% mortgage £568,957 in total , £1,897 pcm (I have ignored stamp duty etc).

So although the Tories have cost graduates about £250pcm in loan repayment, their and Labour's housing policy in my road at least has cost them £1k pcm (and that is ignoring the extra stamp duty etc and of course this will not get written off).

* A cheap non descript London suburb.

Figures from Zoopla, mortgage from money saving expert, inflation added from below, interest rates rough estimates

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Pages/resources/inflationtools/calculator/default.aspx

A) If anyone thinks my assumptions are wrong please let me know

B') I would like to see other peoples figures from where they live

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1 minute ago, CunningPlan said:

I would argue with this line:

'If the Conservatives wanted to fully address housing stability, they'd need to reverse the housing benefit cuts implemented under austerity'
 

So would I.  I would say greater housing benefit cuts would help.

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7 minutes ago, CunningPlan said:

I would argue with this line:

'If the Conservatives wanted to fully address housing stability, they'd need to reverse the housing benefit cuts implemented under austerity'
 

+1. Housing benefit pushes up prices for everyone not receiving it and goes straight to landlords. What was the author thinking!!!?

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The thing is, the young now have all the power. They could demand radical policies now as the future is theirs. They will be offered crumbs like "intergenerational mortgages" and other such debt nonsense. I hope they dig in and demand a huge change in their favour, however I don't think they realise yet how much power they have to make real changes. 

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Just now, fru-gal said:

The thing is, the young now have all the power. They could demand radical policies now as the future is theirs. They will be offered crumbs like "intergenerational mortgages" and other such debt nonsense. I hope they dig in and demand a huge change in their favour, however I don't think they realise yet how much power they have to make real changes. 

But will they use it wisely, they seem to want more of what caused the current housing crisis - housing benefits and unlimited immigration.

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The two issues aren't mutually exclusive though - under MMR, higher student debt will limit the amount recent graduates can borrow to buy a property and vice-versa.

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25 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Very true I worked out that I have lost £105k compared to what I would have paid if house prices had gone up with inflation from 1997 and if interest rates had stayed the same.

If my road* now if prices had gone up inflation the price would be £116k at 7% interest rates (assuming 100% mortgage) it would cost in total £245,981, £820 pcm.

In reality it costs about £400k at 3% mortgage £568,957 in total , £1,897 pcm (I have ignored stamp duty etc).

So although the Tories have cost graduates about £250pcm in loan repayment, their and Labour's housing policy in my road at least has cost them £1k pcm (and that is ignoring the extra stamp duty etc and of course this will not get written off).

* A cheap non descript London suburb.

Figures from Zoopla, mortgage from money saving expert, inflation added from below, interest rates rough estimates

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Pages/resources/inflationtools/calculator/default.aspx

A) If anyone thinks my assumptions are wrong please let me know

B') I would like to see other peoples figures from where they live

My view is that students are in a way responsible for the housing costs. Now we need to have many more houses set aside for student accommodation than previously. These people likely would have lived at home from the age of 18-21 instead of having a place in their chosen uni town and having a much larger chunk of young people heading off to uni at that age is a huge source of demand in already pricey uni town/city centres. Added to that it is funded by debt, or by grants (free money from the good old tax payer) so they are in part creating the problem and paying for it. Numbers have increased dramatically from 1994, and especially since 1997 http://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-has-the-student-population-changed/

Moving forward though many universities, including my own, have started to build huge amounts of decent student housing. 

Clearly other issues abound such as HB, not building enough, easy credit and stoked demand from various sources. 

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8 minutes ago, adarmo said:

My view is that students are in a way responsible for the housing costs. Now we need to have many more houses set aside for student accommodation than previously. These people likely would have lived at home from the age of 18-21 instead of having a place in their chosen uni town and having a much larger chunk of young people heading off to uni at that age is a huge source of demand in already pricey uni town/city centres. Added to that it is funded by debt, or by grants (free money from the good old tax payer) so they are in part creating the problem and paying for it. Numbers have increased dramatically from 1994, and especially since 1997 http://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-has-the-student-population-changed/

Moving forward though many universities, including my own, have started to build huge amounts of decent student housing. 

Clearly other issues abound such as HB, not building enough, easy credit and stoked demand from various sources. 

A million extra people going to uni?  Why on earth? There were not enough jobs for them all in 1997.  Although some uni towns like Durham have not had massive house prices.

Edited by iamnumerate

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31 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

But will they use it wisely, they seem to want more of what caused the current housing crisis - housing benefits and unlimited immigration.

Not sure that is true. Many young people voted for Corbyn because of his stance on ending tuition fees. I read somewhere that the younger generation are generally more right wing when it comes to social issues. If they want housing benefit it is because they have been taught that there is no other option and a bit more housing benefit is the biggest crumb they will get rather than realising that they now have the power to make demands and change the whole system.

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15 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

A million extra people going to uni?  Why on earth? There were not enough jobs for them all in 1997.  Although some uni towns like Durham have not had massive house prices.

Keeps them off official unemployment figures.

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Just now, fru-gal said:

Not sure that is true. Many young people voted for Corbyn because of his stance on ending tuition fees. I read somewhere that the younger generation are generally more right wing when it comes to social issues. If they want housing benefit it is because they have been taught that there is no other option and a bit more housing benefit is the biggest crumb they will get rather than realising that they now have the power to make demands and change the whole system.

Surely voting for the party that created tuition fees and the housing crisis is a prime example of doing the wrong thing?

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With the current system in southern England competition for housing is such that rents and house prices are set at a level as high as folks can afford- so increases in wages simply feeds through to higher housing costs.  Productivity upside is confiscated by the property owning classes.  The same would apply if tuition fees were reduced...youngsters will still be fighting each other over the miserable supply of housing and the 'benefit' of the tuition fee reduction or reimbursement will simply feed through into housing costs which everything else being equal will be supported by this additional money.

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54 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Surely voting for the party that created tuition fees and the housing crisis is a prime example of doing the wrong thing?

Absolutely - and then Labour changing tack after losing the election and saying it was only even an ambition. 

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57 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Surely voting for the party that created tuition fees and the housing crisis is a prime example of doing the wrong thing?

Labour under Corbyn is a completely different party to NuLabour and Corbyn voted against many NuLabour policies.

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Quote

In many areas, prices would need to be set low enough to be affordable without relying on supply and demand.

What the hell is this journalist talking about? To make housing affordable in a Corbyn utopia the government would simply set the price of property to one that young people could afford? Great! How do I join the queue for this taxpayer-funded largesse?

Quote

Indeed, there is a question as to what impact sharply reduced house prices - to three, four, or five times average earnings - would have on the financial health of the banks that had lent mortgages at inflated values.

Let's just take average earnings for everyone, and not just the young. He's suggesting 'decent, secure, affordable' house prices of £90k, £120k, 150k, nationally. Courtesy of a building boom and price controls by the government. That's nice.

Good to see he wonders what the impact on the banks would be though. For a moment I thought he was financially illiterate.

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26 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

Labour under Corbyn is a completely different party to NuLabour and Corbyn voted against many NuLabour policies.

He didn't exactly do a Carswell though did he?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_by-election,_2014

He also abstained on the vote on introducing tuition fees

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10133/jeremy_corbyn/islington_north/divisions?policy=1052

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3 hours ago, fru-gal said:

Labour under Corbyn is a completely different party to NuLabour and Corbyn voted against many NuLabour policies.

+1 agree completely, it's odd to talk about the labour party as if it had been the same for the past few decades - there was a battle for it in the 80s and there's another one going on now.

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19 hours ago, adarmo said:

 

Moving forward though many universities, including my own, have started to build huge amounts of decent student housing. 

Clearly other issues abound such as HB, not building enough, easy credit and stoked demand from various sources. 

I think that is likely because the university has just realised that they need an additional income stream, and student accomodation is a relatively easy one to acquire....from landlords.

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23 hours ago, fru-gal said:

Keeps them off official unemployment figures.

Well it actually gets replaced by immigrant labour..... supermarket workers, production line workers, care workers etc. Because these jobs are no longer done by Brits.

Edited by crashmonitor

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On 26/07/2017 at 0:59 PM, Wayward said:

With the current system in southern England competition for housing is such that rents and house prices are set at a level as high as folks can afford- so increases in wages simply feeds through to higher housing costs. 

Indeed, weve managed to create a system where any improvement in living standards is essentially impossible since rentier activity will capture any gains.

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3 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Indeed, weve managed to create a system where any improvement in living standards is essentially impossible since rentier activity will capture any gains.

We could just build more homes or encourage people to leave.

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