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Estate Agent '2017 more painful than 2008'

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Comment regarding one of today's new stories on Property Industry Eye:

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/hmrc-data-reveals-property-market-continued-to-grow-even-amid-brexit-and-election-uncertainty/#comments

surrey1
July 24, 2017 at 9:37 am
2017 more painful than 2008 thus far. Prices slowly softening, sellers taking a long time to get to grips with it.

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This does not bode well for my over indebted friends in the south, reliant on the city of london to pay them massive salaried to service their debt.

I cannot wait for them to stop prattling on about their pwopatee, if bankruptcy is the only way to shut them up, then so be it.

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15 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This does not bode well for my over indebted friends in the south, reliant on the city of london to pay them massive salaried to service their debt.

I cannot wait for them to stop prattling on about their pwopatee, if bankruptcy is the only way to shut them up, then so be it.

I have a theory.

The South is fcked with MMR and post 2007 changes.

London and a ~100 mile radius around it relied on relatively high paying finance jobs. Not just the city, stuff like banks, back offices, life insurers, etc. These paid well for the skills required. And pulled up the other wages too.

Post 2007. Finance is being gutting. I go to regional southern cities and, where you you had back offices or an LI as the 1st and 2nd top employer, they are just not there any more.

Pick any Southern town/city. Look at the top employees in 2004. Now look so see how many lays off tere's been.

This is due to the orgs fckign up, technology, which is decimating finance, and stuff like leverage ratios/more capital, which, when you remove leverage from finance, they just cannot make the same profits (This is not a bad thing - see 2008).

I reckon that the Southern finance jobs losses since 2007 far exceed those lost in the Norther manufacturing recession of the late 70s/early80s. Its only tax credits and low IRs keeping the south going at the mo.

 

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15 minutes ago, spyguy said:

I have a theory.

The South is fcked with MMR and post 2007 changes.

London and a ~100 mile radius around it relied on relatively high paying finance jobs. Not just the city, stuff like banks, back offices, life insurers, etc. These paid well for the skills required. And pulled up the other wages too.

Post 2007. Finance is being gutting. I go to regional southern cities and, where you you had back offices or an LI as the 1st and 2nd top employer, they are just not there any more.

Pick any Southern town/city. Look at the top employees in 2004. Now look so see how many lays off tere's been.

This is due to the orgs fckign up, technology, which is decimating finance, and stuff like leverage ratios/more capital, which, when you remove leverage from finance, they just cannot make the same profits (This is not a bad thing - see 2008).

I reckon that the Southern finance jobs losses since 2007 far exceed those lost in the Norther manufacturing recession of the late 70s/early80s. Its only tax credits and low IRs keeping the south going at the mo.

 

Maybe it's the circles I move in but I know no end of well paid city types who'd not been touched by 2007.

Well, not touched until now.  they're in more debt, more reliant on their house prices, reliant on the magical london economy never hitting the buffers.  These are couples on 6 figure incomes apiece, rather than  consolidating since 2007 they've gone on the biggest spending binge it has been my displeasure to watch.

 

I'd imagine goiing from £100K, £200K to 0 with debts levels that can be reached on incomes of £200K  will destroy people very quickly.

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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some guy on R4 this morning at around 08.00- a pro Brexiter- was selling the story that all was well and was tired off remoaners- he was claiming hiring in the City was up year on year...quite dramatically he claimed...sorry I didn't catch his name.

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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

I have a theory.

The South is fcked with MMR and post 2007 changes.

London and a ~100 mile radius around it relied on relatively high paying finance jobs. Not just the city, stuff like banks, back offices, life insurers, etc. These paid well for the skills required. And pulled up the other wages too.

Post 2007. Finance is being gutting. I go to regional southern cities and, where you you had back offices or an LI as the 1st and 2nd top employer, they are just not there any more.

Pick any Southern town/city. Look at the top employees in 2004. Now look so see how many lays off tere's been.

This is due to the orgs fckign up, technology, which is decimating finance, and stuff like leverage ratios/more capital, which, when you remove leverage from finance, they just cannot make the same profits (This is not a bad thing - see 2008).

I reckon that the Southern finance jobs losses since 2007 far exceed those lost in the Norther manufacturing recession of the late 70s/early80s. Its only tax credits and low IRs keeping the south going at the mo.

 

IME the plates are still spinning in the SE, seems to be plenty of work around for now. Forever getting calls from recruitment people and it is always SE (much to my dismay). What we can agree on is prices being totally out-of-whack with that work though and that will cause a major problem for some people if a recession arrives.

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12 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

IME the plates are still spinning in the SE, seems to be plenty of work around for now. Forever getting calls from recruitment people and it is always SE (much to my dismay). What we can agree on is prices being totally out-of-whack with that work though and that will cause a major problem for some people if a recession arrives.

The boom over the last 3 years have been driven by BTLers and foreign investors.

Any of them with any sense will be long gone.

There is no support for prices, None.

This means 1 thing......

 

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I spoke with a friend in the oil industry the other day, as an aside, and he's said, they're making more money now at $50 a barrel than they ever did at over $100 dollars a barrel as they had massive inefficiencies, and that seeing the price of oil plummet has seen the whole industry change, lots of redundancies, no more 3 on 3 off as before, but 3 on, 2 off, and less.  That they're streamlining operations to maintain a profit (but not more investments), things like training jollies to Norway for 2 weeks at an all in 5 star, business class on the plane are now 4 days in a 3 star in cattle.

States why Aberdeen is also dropping a lot.

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9 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I spoke with a friend in the oil industry the other day, as an aside, and he's said, they're making more money now at $50 a barrel than they ever did at over $100 dollars a barrel as they had massive inefficiencies, and that seeing the price of oil plummet has seen the whole industry change, lots of redundancies, no more 3 on 3 off as before, but 3 on, 2 off, and less.  That they're streamlining operations to maintain a profit (but not more investments), things like training jollies to Norway for 2 weeks at an all in 5 star, business class on the plane are now 4 days in a 3 star in cattle.

States why Aberdeen is also dropping a lot.

Id call BS on that.

The cost of labour is a piss in the ocean in the oil business. Thats why it gets so out of control - bring a rig 2 weeks earlier and youve a few million barrells out if, making extra cosr less than a rounding error.

Its the capital cost that fcksover oil. And compo.

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Ive been seeing many property price reductions where the lower price is still insane.

Anyway this property is in a very well to do area, and had gone from 365k to 300k in a few months.

My trget is to buy at 2000GBP per m2, (i.e pay over odds) which this is at ... though ive not got 300k
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59347630.html

This is the first reduction i've seen that has made me excited ..... THE CRASH IS ON!

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3 hours ago, Habitationi Bulla said:

Ive been seeing many property price reductions where the lower price is still insane.

Anyway this property is in a very well to do area, and had gone from 365k to 300k in a few months.

My trget is to buy at 2000GBP per m2, (i.e pay over odds) which this is at ... though ive not got 300k
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59347630.html

This is the first reduction i've seen that has made me excited ..... THE CRASH IS ON!

good job the station is close , might go against it otherwise.

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13 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Thats not a bad house by todays prices at that money. Its got a lot further to go, and where is the work in Ringwood?

Ringwood.10.gif

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5 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

In Bournemouth then....?

Its about 10-12 miles north of Bournemouth....Sort of between Bournemouth & Southampton.

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18 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Thats not a bad house by todays prices at that money. Its got a lot further to go, and where is the work in Ringwood?

Loads of p/t work close by to get your 20 hours in for WTC.

Its the first house i've seen that is close to the value since 2013 even though i thought they were over priced at the time. But there is nothing close by thats seen such drops in the price range from what in comparison to everything else i'm seeing on the market may not have been such an inflated starting price.

Everything on RM today is either just on or reduced, once autumn comes it could start getting interesting.

But you can still pay over £5000 per m2 for a repo just round the corner if you're that way inclined
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59213350.html?premiumA=true

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10 hours ago, Habitationi Bulla said:

Ive been seeing many property price reductions where the lower price is still insane.

Anyway this property is in a very well to do area, and had gone from 365k to 300k in a few months.

My trget is to buy at 2000GBP per m2, (i.e pay over odds) which this is at ... though ive not got 300k
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59347630.html

This is the first reduction i've seen that has made me excited ..... THE CRASH IS ON!

I wouldn't get too excited just yet.

That place is alongside the A31 dual carriageway, so of limited appeal to most reasonable people.

Location, location, location, as they say.

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12 hours ago, spyguy said:

Id call BS on that.

The cost of labour is a piss in the ocean in the oil business. Thats why it gets so out of control - bring a rig 2 weeks earlier and youve a few million barrells out if, making extra cosr less than a rounding error.

Its the capital cost that fcksover oil. And compo.

You can call whatever you like, but that's what he said and I value his word to be honest.  He told me that nothing was controlled, and now it is.  He works longer, so is making less, and they're using fewer staff. What he said made perfect sense.  The bit that shocked me is that they're making more money now than they used to.

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17 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This does not bode well for my over indebted friends in the south, reliant on the city of london to pay them massive salaried to service their debt.

I cannot wait for them to stop prattling on about their pwopatee, if bankruptcy is the only way to shut them up, then so be it.

Lol

+1

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12 hours ago, spyguy said:

Id call BS on that.

The cost of labour is a piss in the ocean in the oil business. Thats why it gets so out of control - bring a rig 2 weeks earlier and youve a few million barrells out if, making extra cosr less than a rounding error.

Its the capital cost that fcksover oil. And compo.

But most of the NS is existing production. Staff / contractor costs are huge. Even shore based in my field rates are £650 a day in Aberdeen.

i sank beers with a retired oil worker last week. The golden days are gone but it's still a great industry to be in.

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12 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

But most of the NS is existing production. Staff / contractor costs are huge. Even shore based in my field rates are £650 a day in Aberdeen.

i sank beers with a retired oil worker last week. The golden days are gone but it's still a great industry to be in.

Nope.

Each oil field has its break even price.NS is about 50-70$

Ive never seen labour - as opposed to capital- broke ut. I doubt  it makes a c/barrel.

Yes, oil is a good area to be in. If you are an insider/first in line or contracts.

Id guess about 70% of people working in the NS 10 years ago have been laid off.

I know a lot of people who got a tsart in the NS then moved onto to harder to extract oil. Mianly as the day rate was double or trble. The downside is the oil costs more to extract and they are all out of a contract - I dont know anyone who's employed in th oil; all contractors.

For labour, the moneys not in extracting oil - once the wells sunk, its a pure capital/maintenance play.

Its in exploration and sinking new wells. Thats where 80% of the OAG people were employed.

 

 

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7 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

Thats not a bad house by todays prices at that money. Its got a lot further to go, and where is the work in Ringwood?

JP Morgan in Bournemouth, also they drill oil in that area.....not to mention Sandbanks.;)

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35 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Nope.

Each oil field has its break even price.NS is about 50-70$

Ive never seen labour - as opposed to capital- broke ut. I doubt  it makes a c/barrel.

Yes, oil is a good area to be in. If you are an insider/first in line or contracts.

Id guess about 70% of people working in the NS 10 years ago have been laid off.

I know a lot of people who got a tsart in the NS then moved onto to harder to extract oil. Mianly as the day rate was double or trble. The downside is the oil costs more to extract and they are all out of a contract - I dont know anyone who's employed in th oil; all contractors.

For labour, the moneys not in extracting oil - once the wells sunk, its a pure capital/maintenance play.

Its in exploration and sinking new wells. Thats where 80% of the OAG people were employed.

 

 

Is it though, this new Norwegian field is $25 break even price.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca7bb39a-6dd9-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926

I don't doubt the $50 break even price, but can innovation bring the new sites cost down thereby dialling down the total break even price to sub $50.

historical@2x.png?s=CO1&v=20170725070000

Edited by GrizzlyDave

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36 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Nope.

Each oil field has its break even price.NS is about 50-70$

Ive never seen labour - as opposed to capital- broke ut. I doubt  it makes a c/barrel.

Yes, oil is a good area to be in. If you are an insider/first in line or contracts.

Id guess about 70% of people working in the NS 10 years ago have been laid off.

I know a lot of people who got a tsart in the NS then moved onto to harder to extract oil. Mianly as the day rate was double or trble. The downside is the oil costs more to extract and they are all out of a contract - I dont know anyone who's employed in th oil; all contractors.

For labour, the moneys not in extracting oil - once the wells sunk, its a pure capital/maintenance play.

Its in exploration and sinking new wells. Thats where 80% of the OAG people were employed.

 

 

Simply not true.  May have been a while back, but not now, new efficiencies are creeping in making oil cheaper to extract.  That was the point he was making...

He actually works in the oil industry, as an expert, working on cutting costs.  I'm going with him thanks.

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