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TheCountOfNowhere

Toronto's not unique after all...

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This is a classic

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/torontos-falling-house-prices-signal-a-return-to-sanity/article35773406/

 

"

House prices have been falling in Toronto. Yes, falling.

To many people, that comes as a rude shock. Prices rose for so long that it seemed as if it were the natural state of affairs. The idea took hold that Toronto was somehow unique, its housing market immune to the corrections and crashes that have afflicted just about every city (Toronto itself included) at one time or another.

Even now, real estate hucksters and sanguine economists say the current downturn is merely a pause in an unstoppable ascent. All the factors, they insist, point up, up, up. Throngs of people from around the country and across the globe are clamouring to live here. The economy is robust. Canada is a safe haven in a troubled world. Toronto is a booming city with rock-solid banks. The supply of housing and land is limited, the demand ever-increasing. All, to an extent, true: Toronto’s fundamentals are excellent and the price drop so far is modest. But similar things were being said about London or Orlando before the British and U.S. housing markets hit the skids a few years ago. No commodity keeps gaining value without interruption. The price of housing experiences the same peaks and valleys as gold, stocks or orange-juice futures."

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That is good for people, especially the young, who want to buy but despair of ever finding a place. Some will decide they can afford one now. Others will decide that if prices can suddenly drop like this, housing isn’t such a great investment after all. That’s a good thing, too.

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Governments, too, will be forced to change their ways. Toronto’s, for one, has come to rely on the hundreds of millions of dollars it collects every year from a tax on land transfers.

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' No commodity keeps gaining value without interruption. The price of housing experiences the same peaks and valleys as gold, stocks or orange-juice futures. '

 

 

Absolutely spot on.The timelines are different but the underlying dynamics of fear and greed don't change.

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3 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

' No commodity keeps gaining value without interruption. The price of housing experiences the same peaks and valleys as gold, stocks or orange-juice futures. '

 

 

Absolutely spot on.The timelines are different but the underlying dynamics of fear and greed don't change.

Correct.

So you can either but at the top or near the top and regret it. or buy at the bottom and have a nice life.

 

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11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This is a classic

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/torontos-falling-house-prices-signal-a-return-to-sanity/article35773406/

 

"

House prices have been falling in Toronto. Yes, falling.

To many people, that comes as a rude shock. Prices rose for so long that it seemed as if it were the natural state of affairs. The idea took hold that Toronto was somehow unique, its housing market immune to the corrections and crashes that have afflicted just about every city (Toronto itself included) at one time or another.

Even now, real estate hucksters and sanguine economists say the current downturn is merely a pause in an unstoppable ascent. All the factors, they insist, point up, up, up. Throngs of people from around the country and across the globe are clamouring to live here. The economy is robust. Canada is a safe haven in a troubled world. Toronto is a booming city with rock-solid banks. The supply of housing and land is limited, the demand ever-increasing. All, to an extent, true: Toronto’s fundamentals are excellent and the price drop so far is modest. But similar things were being said about London or Orlando before the British and U.S. housing markets hit the skids a few years ago. No commodity keeps gaining value without interruption. The price of housing experiences the same peaks and valleys as gold, stocks or orange-juice futures."

Orlando maybe and the US  - but not really London and the UK.   It's not really true to say that London and the British market "hit the skids" - they've been well and truly artificially propped up by the crooks and fraudsters using taxpayer and saver funds plus borrowing and money printing etc etc etc for nearly a decade.

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8 hours ago, billybong said:

Orlando maybe and the US  - but not really London and the UK.   It's not really true to say that London and the British market "hit the skids" - they've been well and truly artificially propped up by the crooks and fraudsters using taxpayer and saver funds plus borrowing and money printing etc etc etc for nearly a decade.

If you were looking in on the 2007 london collapse and the £ devaluation, prices dropped 50%.

I know that's no use to British people living in the cess pit that is the UK but that's the truth of the matter

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3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If you were looking in on the 2007 london collapse and the £ devaluation, prices dropped 50%.

I know that's no use to British people living in the cess pit that is the UK but that's the truth of the matter

Could you clarify your current HPC stance as that seems to argue against an imminent HPC - if they dropped by that much already (I think it's also true that they dropped a lot relative to gold) - it suggests the HPC has been and gone.  One of the HPC forum main arguments being that UK house prices were supported far more than elsewhere (and we're still waiting for the real crash) - whereas the US house prices weren't.

I know that London house prices dropped a bit but recovered quickly (currency and inflation excluded) and recently set near record highs and I think that US house prices dropped significantly without taking into account currency effects etc although there have been recent reports that they've recovered a bit.

Image result for london house price chart

.

Image result for new york house prices chart

Edited by billybong

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18 minutes ago, billybong said:

Could you clarify your current HPC stance as that seems to argue against an imminent HPC - if they dropped by that much already (I think it's also true that they dropped a lot relative to gold) - it suggests the HPC has been and gone.  One of the HPC forum main arguments being that UK house prices were supported far more than elsewhere (and we're still waiting for the real crash) - whereas the US house prices weren't.

I know that London house prices dropped a bit but recovered quickly (currency and inflation excluded) and recently set near record highs and I think that US house prices dropped significantly without taking into account currency effects etc although there have been recent reports that they've recovered a bit.

Image result for london house price chart

.

Image result for new york house prices chart

"- it suggests the HPC has been and gone" Not for the very angry residents ( with few pay rises and paid in the devalued local fiat ) it's not.  

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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23 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

"- it suggests the HPC has been and gone" Not for the very angry residents ( with few pay rises and paid in the devalued local fiat ) it's not.  

 

That also reflects my feelings on UK house prices and the way they've been artificially supported.  I question whether the currency effect might undermine that argument a bit (as well as house prices v gold) - in seeking the true position.  One of the points I'm making in my last post is that when I said in the post before that

Quote

 

Orlando maybe and the US  - but not really London and the UK.   It's not really true to say that London and the British market "hit the skids" - they've been well and truly artificially propped up by the crooks and fraudsters using taxpayer and saver funds plus borrowing and money printing etc etc etc for nearly a decade.

 

that is the truth in both real and nominal terms as exampled in the 2 charts I posted (but they apparently exclude currency effects).

Edited by billybong

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