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Nationwide/ Halifax indices


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HOLA441
On 7/22/2017 at 10:42 AM, MonkeyPuzzle said:

Remember all the chumps who bought in the last 4 years signed the documents while they were bouncing up and down in their seats expecting, obviously, an 8-12% increase in value each and every year to infinity because that's what the estate agents told them. Not 1.5%. Just wait til even the YoY goes negative over the next few months.

Indeed, many of them reading articles like this on the train into work back in Sept 2015:

London house prices 'to average £1 million by 2020'

Quote

Prices in the capital hit an all-time high in September, jumping 2.2% or £13,177 to reach £620,003, according to Rightmove's latest House Price Index.

That pushed annual price growth to 9.5%.

Outer London is currently outperforming inner London, with annual growth of 9.7% versus  central London's 9.1%.

Rightmove said prices were shooting up as a "supply/demand imbalance continues along with London's international allure".

 

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HOLA442
On 22/07/2017 at 10:42 AM, MonkeyPuzzle said:

Look at the DIRECTION of the prices in relation to YoY. The momentum is vastly downwards and it won't stop there.

YoY can be slightly deceptive -- the figure is supported by market conditions that used to exist 12 months ago but exist no longer. The media often use YoY to give homeowners and BTLers another drag on the 'hopium' pipe that the property market isn't falling through the floor. "Property prices up 1.5% from last year!" they screech, without of course pointing out that the 12 previous monthly YoY figures were +12.5%, +10%, +9%, +6.5%, +4%, and so on down to +1.5%. Which not only indicates that the era of property as a so-called investment has died but that property in shorter terms is set to be a real cost once again not an exploitative gain.

Remember all the chumps who bought in the last 4 years signed the documents while they were bouncing up and down in their seats expecting, obviously, an 8-12% increase in value each and every year to infinity because that's what the estate agents told them. Not 1.5%. Just wait til even the YoY goes negative over the next few months.

It feels like we are the ones smoking on the 'hopium' pipe, I'm afraid. The market doesn't seem to gather any real downwards momentum despite repeated shocks to confidence - Brexit, weak/ unstable government. My 'hopium' pipe is that rises outside London are concealing London falls in these figures.

2% annual rises unfortunately isn't just a hangover from last year. This month was +0.3%. Multiplying by 12 will, of course, give +3.6% annualised.

Annual rises changing from 12% to 3% simply is not going to do the job, I'm afraid. I was hoping that it would gather some downwards momentum after three straight months of falls earlier in the year, but then we had +1.1%, +0.3%.

As for YoY going negative, we would obviously need the monthly data to show falls for this to happen. Nationwide has now shown two months of rises. Hopefully Halifax will produce some better news.

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HOLA443
13 minutes ago, keeprenting said:

It feels like we are the ones smoking on the 'hopium' pipe, I'm afraid

Ain't it the truth. We can dress this up any way we like, but the fact is that given the political insanity, eye-wateringly high debt and lousy economic news out there, both Nationwide and Halifax should be showing house price falls, month after month after month after month.

14 minutes ago, keeprenting said:

My 'hopium' pipe is that rises outside London are concealing London falls in these figures

Mine is that transactions have fallen off a cliff, they are definitely very markedly down on a year ago. Which means that those idiots out there that are still buying property are skewing the numbers upward on a vastly smaller number of transactions. Making the market not real. As I said, that's what my hopium pipe is leading me to. 

It does help on a personal basis that I heard from a friend of my spouse recently that sold an investment property in Dagenham. She'd had it for 10 years, but ended up making a loss of 20,000 GBP. A 20 K loss in a time of insane house price rises. Now that brings a smile to my face. But the national data is not reflecting that anecdotal tale. 

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HOLA444
22 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

300 posts and now its "we".

 

Er, what?

22 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Talking wee

 

Post something constructive. This isn't some sort of emotional support group where everyone has to echo your views. If you expect prices to fall then explain why the indices are still churning out positive monthly figures, over a year after Brexit, and with BTL buying capacity having been decimated by tax changes.

 

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HOLA445
3 hours ago, Society of fools said:

Ain't it the truth. We can dress this up any way we like, but the fact is that given the political insanity, eye-wateringly high debt and lousy economic news out there, both Nationwide and Halifax should be showing house price falls, month after month after month after month.

Mine is that transactions have fallen off a cliff, they are definitely very markedly down on a year ago. Which means that those idiots out there that are still buying property are skewing the numbers upward on a vastly smaller number of transactions. Making the market not real. As I said, that's what my hopium pipe is leading me to. 

It does help on a personal basis that I heard from a friend of my spouse recently that sold an investment property in Dagenham. She'd had it for 10 years, but ended up making a loss of 20,000 GBP. A 20 K loss in a time of insane house price rises. Now that brings a smile to my face. But the national data is not reflecting that anecdotal tale. 

Agree. 1% increase goes against everything I've heard forecast and believe. Talking to EA though they're all saying the same thing, no inventory and low sales volume. 

 

I feel only in the last month or two has sentiment changed. Give it til Christmas....

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HOLA446
1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Is there a whole office of trolls this week?

Normally agree with you Count but that's not trolling it's the facts, and I am betting big on a fall having sold a large house to rent

it's coming but the facts as reported don't back this up

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HOLA447
5 minutes ago, insertcoinstocontinue said:

Agree. 1% increase goes against everything I've heard forecast and believe. Talking to EA though they're all saying the same thing, no inventory and low sales volume. 

 

I feel only in the last month or two has sentiment changed. Give it til Christmas....

That's the point sentiment has only just changed 

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HOLA448
3 minutes ago, insertcoinstocontinue said:

Agree. 1% increase goes against everything I've heard forecast and believe. Talking to EA though they're all saying the same thing, no inventory and low sales volume. 

 

I feel only in the last month or two has sentiment changed. Give it til Christmas....

1% increase is definitely not consistent with what I'm seeing "on the ground" in London. Hence the thread - whether it's still going up in other parts of the country and that is masking the reality of what's happening in London.

I don't think prices at six times incomes outside London (and excluding commuter belt areas in e.g. Surrey) seems that ridiculous, with the banks lending at 4.5 times income. Throw in some dual income couples and BTL'ers which justifies a multiple of six. London is a completely different story at 14 (?) times average income.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
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HOLA449

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/10/uk-property-market-slowdown-political-uncertainty-surveyors

"A large majority of surveyors in both London and south-east England are reporting falling prices, though the national picture is balanced by price rises in the West Midlands, the south-west and Northern Ireland."

"The net balance of surveyors reporting price rises fell from +7% to +1% in July, signalling that prices were broadly flat across the country. In London, the net balance reporting price rises was strongly negative, at -48%."

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HOLA4410
5 minutes ago, keeprenting said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/10/uk-property-market-slowdown-political-uncertainty-surveyors

"A large majority of surveyors in both London and south-east England are reporting falling prices, though the national picture is balanced by price rises in the West Midlands, the south-west and Northern Ireland."

"The net balance of surveyors reporting price rises fell from +7% to +1% in July, signalling that prices were broadly flat across the country. In London, the net balance reporting price rises was strongly negative, at -48%."

No I call BS. Not what I am seeing in NIreland at all- although Shaun Richards at Notayesman quotes the same about NIreland recently in his blog too- speculating or claiming overspill from a burgeoning Dublin property market happening again.

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HOLA4411

Don't know about NI. But what the surveyors are reporting is consistent with what the indices are showing, i.e. flat or very slightly rising prices as a national average. However, the surveyors go beyond this and report that the flat prices overall don't tell the full story - it is in fact a mixed picture, with rises in some areas concealing falls in London/ the SE.

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HOLA4412
1 minute ago, keeprenting said:

Don't know about NI. But what the surveyors are reporting is consistent with what the indices are showing, i.e. flat or very slightly rising prices as a national average. However, the surveyors go beyond this and report that the flat prices overall don't tell the full story - it is in fact a mixed picture, with rises in some areas concealing falls in London/ the SE.

Fair point - and mixed bag sounds right for sure. It's just the conceally bit that my BS detector redflagged. 

The time lag is the issue overall I reckon- I find it hard to get a clear up-to-the-minute handle on it all so that's why I'm on here, same as everybody it seems.

I also have a severe case of "Heard-it-all-all-before-itis" which makes me twitch every time anybody says oh look how well things are going up over in NIreland (implying to those based elsewhere that things must be on the up elsewhere).

I will try to turn my detector down a couple of notches. 

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