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keeprenting

Nationwide/ Halifax indices

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These seem to be heading towards 0% on an annual basis. I wonder if the reason for this could be that, although London and surrounds will soon be YoY negative, there are very low transaction numbers in London.

So the relative impact of London (falling) is lower than it should be and the figures are being propped up by the less bubble-tastic regions, which are still growing. And it may continue like this for the rest of the year.

So maybe we shouldn't be expecting drastic fall in these indices any time soon?

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38 minutes ago, keeprenting said:

These seem to be heading towards 0% on an annual basis. I wonder if the reason for this could be that, although London and surrounds will soon be YoY negative, there are very low transaction numbers in London.

So the relative impact of London (falling) is lower than it should be and the figures are being propped up by the less bubble-tastic regions, which are still growing. And it may continue like this for the rest of the year.

So maybe we shouldn't be expecting drastic fall in these indices any time soon?

Based upon what, not the Nationwide or Halifax indeces surely/

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3 hours ago, newgi said:

Based upon what, not the Nationwide or Halifax indeces surely/

Yes, based on the indices, they are both heading towards 0% YoY. I'm certainly not disputing that they might go YoY negative after that but, even if they do, it seems to be very slow.  

 

 

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5 hours ago, keeprenting said:

I'm certainly not disputing that they might go YoY negative after that but, even if they do, it seems to be very slow.  

My expectation is that this would be the outcome. 

If properties are not selling then then initial reaction of those sellers would be to sit on them, withdraw the listing, and this might go on for many months. 

So transaction numbers collapse.

But, given the number of Greater Fools out there, and there are still plenty, prices on the few remaining homes sold may very well be maintained. 

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Look at the DIRECTION of the prices in relation to YoY. The momentum is vastly downwards and it won't stop there.

YoY can be slightly deceptive -- the figure is supported by market conditions that used to exist 12 months ago but exist no longer. The media often use YoY to give homeowners and BTLers another drag on the 'hopium' pipe that the property market isn't falling through the floor. "Property prices up 1.5% from last year!" they screech, without of course pointing out that the 12 previous monthly YoY figures were +12.5%, +10%, +9%, +6.5%, +4%, and so on down to +1.5%. Which not only indicates that the era of property as a so-called investment has died but that property in shorter terms is set to be a real cost once again not an exploitative gain.

Remember all the chumps who bought in the last 4 years signed the documents while they were bouncing up and down in their seats expecting, obviously, an 8-12% increase in value each and every year to infinity because that's what the estate agents told them. Not 1.5%. Just wait til even the YoY goes negative over the next few months.

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Bump. Does anyone have any thoughts on how the split between London and the rest of the country could affect  figures.

London prices are 14 times earnings. Rest of the country is only 6 times. You can see which looks more vulnerable.

You might think that if there are lower transaction numbers in London, there would be fewer sales at London prices which might skew the average down? Or do they pick this up in the way they do the calculations/ is the rest of the country rising and masking falls in London?

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58 minutes ago, keeprenting said:

Bump. Does anyone have any thoughts on how the split between London and the rest of the country could affect  figures.

London prices are 14 times earnings. Rest of the country is only 6 times. You can see which looks more vulnerable.

You might think that if there are lower transaction numbers in London, there would be fewer sales at London prices which might skew the average down? Or do they pick this up in the way they do the calculations/ is the rest of the country rising and masking falls in London?

Rest of the country only 6 times??? So prices in Surrey and Doncaster are only 6 times?

Anyone would think London is the only place in the country with a property bubble.

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12 minutes ago, Habitationi Bulla said:

Rest of the country only 6 times??? So prices in Surrey and Doncaster are only 6 times?

Anyone would think London is the only place in the country with a property bubble.

As if by magic....

unafford2.png

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14 minutes ago, Habitationi Bulla said:

Rest of the country only 6 times??? So prices in Surrey and Doncaster are only 6 times?

Anyone would think London is the only place in the country with a property bubble.

Cant remember if these price related of related to house price or monthly affordability.

 

If it's monthly affordability, one should fact in the fact IRs are at 0.25%, that makes a comparison with 2007 a bit difficult and the s8*t coul;d hit the fan much more easily with a small rate rise.

unafford.png

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17 minutes ago, Habitationi Bulla said:

Rest of the country only 6 times??? So prices in Surrey and Doncaster are only 6 times?

Anyone would think London is the only place in the country with a property bubble.

I'd expect the bankers ( evil c**ts that they are ) have looked at this graph and thought,,,"our slaves oop north arent paying us enough, they can afford more".

 

Hence the media push to tell people what a great bargain pwopatee oop north actually is.

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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Cant remember if these price related of related to house price or monthly affordability.

If it's monthly affordability, one should fact in the fact IRs are at 0.25%, that makes a comparison with 2007 a bit difficult and the s8*t coul;d hit the fan much more easily with a small rate rise.

 

Those in London may be at fault for the bubble but it affects most the population.

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One more graph...for all those people who thing London cannot crash....Hong%252BKong%252BProperty%252BPrices.pn

 

HK went down 65%


When the chinese economy implodes guess where that's going....

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

P.S Check out NI.

Proper bubble madness, now London is MUCH worse.

3 guesses what's going to become of London

I dont care about London it can blow up as all i care,  the bubble is everywhere but it seems the MSM and several on here seem to think its only a London thing. I recommend everyone in London staying there and leaves us peasants alone .. besides they might fall off the edge of the world when leaving London. 

I love the way they keep on having to tell themselves its the greatest city in the world, when even Southampton is better.

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Just now, lombardo said:

It's a lot worse than what that chart shows. London is closer to 20x.

Well, the chart comes from the NationWide B.S, so I'll go with that until you show us your facts ?

Maybe bots of london at 20x income but that would be very specific area I expect

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5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Well, the chart comes from the NationWide B.S, so I'll go with that until you show us your facts ?

Maybe bots of london at 20x income but that would be very specific area I expect

But its showing 6 times salary for outer SE England (presumably (Hants and Essex fall into this), with average wage being 28K ish i can safely say 174k gets one sweet Fanny Adams in this region. Your looking closer to 10 times for a house that needs no work on it in an average area.

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6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Well, the chart comes from the NationWide B.S, so I'll go with that until you show us your facts ?

Maybe bots of london at 20x income but that would be very specific area I expect

Well I got this from a friend who works at an estate agent. I must make it clear that I am talking about half decent houses and not bad ones. We were talking about 3 bed semis. This is what most people aspire towards. Yes flats and smaller houses cost less but I think we should consider the average price of what people consider their target home.

Also if you look at prices of 3 bed semis in outer London, their median price around 600k or a bit less and if the median salary is 30k  then you can see that it is closer to 20x than the 10x on that chart.

Even if you go for average prices absolutely http://www.cityam.com/259026/london-boroughs-ranked-order-house-price-growth-if-you-live

You can see that it is a lot more than 10x.

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7 minutes ago, lombardo said:

Well I got this from a friend who works at an estate agent

Sorry, I didnt get past that bit, feel off my chair laughing.

I dont think abyone on 30K a year in London has bought a house since 2005.

Therein lies the problem.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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On 7/22/2017 at 10:42 AM, MonkeyPuzzle said:

Look at the DIRECTION of the prices in relation to YoY. The momentum is vastly downwards and it won't stop there.

YoY can be slightly deceptive -- the figure is supported by market conditions that used to exist 12 months ago but exist no longer. The media often use YoY to give homeowners and BTLers another drag on the 'hopium' pipe that the property market isn't falling through the floor. "Property prices up 1.5% from last year!" they screech, without of course pointing out that the 12 previous monthly YoY figures were +12.5%, +10%, +9%, +6.5%, +4%, and so on down to +1.5%. Which not only indicates that the era of property as a so-called investment has died but that property in shorter terms is set to be a real cost once again not an exploitative gain.

Remember all the chumps who bought in the last 4 years signed the documents while they were bouncing up and down in their seats expecting, obviously, an 8-12% increase in value each and every year to infinity because that's what the estate agents told them. Not 1.5%. Just wait til even the YoY goes negative over the next few months.

+1

Also - love the bit I bolded... "hopium" pipe is exactly what these people have been smoking :) - I'm gonna borrow that term!

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5 minutes ago, BearlyBegun said:

+1

Also - love the bit I bolded... "hopium" pipe is exactly what these people have been smoking :) - I'm gonna borrow that term!

I think we all are :lol: 

 

In fact I already have:

 

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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10 minutes ago, BearlyBegun said:

+1

Also - love the bit I bolded... "hopium" pipe is exactly what these people have been smoking :) - I'm gonna borrow that term!

I'm going to PCP it for three years then give it back when there's no hope left and the resale value has gone thru the deck.

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