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ftb_fml

Hometrack June +4.6% YoY

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Here.

Ever so slightly down on last month's value of 4.7% (IIRC) but definitely only showing a trend of slightly slowing growth rather than any decent falls (other than Cambridge which seems to be on a bit of a losing streak).

It also shows the same trends as other sources - much slowing in the SE and other areas that have already seen a lot of growth, with pretty rampant inflation everywhere else.

It does state that in some cities the rate of HPI is now outstripped by RPI so values are falling in "real terms" however in the face of stagnating wages this isn't really wonderful news..

I'd guess restricted supply seems to be the continual fly in the ointment.. until people have a good reason to sell it appears that they're just sitting on what they have.

 

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6 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

restricted supply

This meme.

There is an excess of housing stock in the UK. Units are sitting void, because there is little incentive to rent or sell. When housing starts collapsing, this stock will flood onto the market as the "investors" attempt to escape with their shirts.

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1 hour ago, Locke said:

This meme.

There is an excess of housing stock in the UK. Units are sitting void, because there is little incentive to rent or sell. When housing starts collapsing, this stock will flood onto the market as the "investors" attempt to escape with their shirts.

Absolutely!: supply (just as much as demand) can turn on a sixpence. There are relatively few forced sales at the moment, but many properties could be put voluntarily on the market; first by those investors who are senstive enough to perceive the change in the wind and agile enough to act, and later by the masses of stick-in-the-mud "investors" ... but the latter will act only when the momentum of falls becomes too obvious to ignore.

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The fly in the ointment for EAs is that from here on to about 2020 we'll be approaching the maturity bump of IO mortgages which were written in the 1990s. That will mean holders of those mortgages willl have to face the music, some maybe will try to downsize adding to the general atmosphere in the market of collapse. The timing of this is near perfect, interest rates will be under pressure to rise and funding support for lenders being pulled by the BOE both factors will help wake up any fool still gullible enough to be buying.

 

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I don't think a lot of those I.o mortgages from the 1990's will have that much to worry about, by now even in the worst parts of the country they will have bucket loads of equity.

however there are loads of other HPC factors coming into play. 

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25 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

I don't think a lot of those I.o mortgages from the 1990's will have that much to worry about, by now even in the worst parts of the country they will have bucket loads of equity.

however there are loads of other HPC factors coming into play. 

I agree with this ... unless those people have MEWed the "free" money. Other than that, if we get a substantial correction in prices, this pool of near-term IO mortages could conceivably be an accelerant if the fall in value pushes up the LTV enough to make re-mortgaging expensive.

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