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fru-gal

What do you think London will be like in 10 years time?

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London has changed so much in the last 10 years alone and that is without Brexit or the changes that technology/automation will bring. How do you think London will change in 10 years time from an economic, political, social, housing etc perspective? 

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1.  The air will be much cleaner.  Electric cars, buses, taxis, vans and trucks.  Also quieter.  

2.  Much more immigration from non-EU countries, to replace EU nationals moving home.  More folk from India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Caribbean and other former Commonwealth countries. 

3.  Housing crisis to get worse.

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19 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Hopefully this:

img_5328_1_rinus1-550da43828d89.jpg

But more likely this:

chi1501.jpg

I doubt it. Demographics alone means that by 2027, the boomers will no longer be the biggest voting demographic and (priced out) millenials and those younger than them, will be the largest voting group if not on the ascendant to be. If the results of GE 2017 are anything to go by, if the housing crisis is not dealt with quickly then the priced out will vent a lot of ire at those that have been pulling up the ladder for their own gain. The longer this lasts the more ferocious the backlash will be (in my opinion).

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London will not tolerate a property crash and serious recession well.

Different ethnic groups and religions (and indeed locals) call get on well when either rich and educated or paid to behave via tax credits when poor.

Riots and large scale conflicts often imported from other parts of the world coming if these payments stop or inflation cuts them by enough.

City centre living is cool at the moment but I remember as a child the higher rates of crime and vandalism that made my parents think back then the suburbs where a good idea.

The boom in London relies on rich tourists/expats being able to walk down the street flashing the cash etc and getting in their nice car.

if the cars start getting vandalised and people keep getting acid sprayed in their face its not going to become more attractive.

Edited by Fromage Frais

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18 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

I doubt it. Demographics alone means that by 2027, the boomers will no longer be the biggest voting demographic and (priced out) millenials and those younger than them, will be the largest voting group if not on the ascendant to be. If the results of GE 2017 are anything to go by, if the housing crisis is not dealt with quickly then the priced out will vent a lot of ire at those that have been pulling up the ladder for their own gain. The longer this lasts the more ferocious the backlash will be (in my opinion).

you forget the money will be passed on to rich kids. 

the poor will just have to leave 

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5 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

London will not tolerate a property crash and serious recession well.

Different ethnic groups and religions (and indeed locals) call get on well when either rich and educated or paid to behave via tax credits when poor.

Riots and large scale conflicts often imported from other parts of the world coming if these payments stop or inflation cuts them by enough.

City centre living is cool at the moment but I remember as a child the higher rates of crime and vandalism that made my parents think back then the suburbs where a good idea.

The boom in London relies on rich tourists/expats being able to walk down the street flashing the cash etc and getting in their nice car.

if the cars start getting vandalised and people keep getting acid sprayed in their face its not going to become more attractive.

Funny you should mention that....

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/20/official-figures-show-biggest-rise-crime-in-a-decade

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37 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

London will not tolerate a property crash and serious recession well.

 

Why ?


They dont get a bloody choice :lol: 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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This is a tricky one. If we get a leftwing socialist government it’ll be a very different place to if we get a rightwing authoritarian government, and I think could go either way, but I wouldn’t like to call it, so I’ll give you both scenarios. 

 

Leftwing scenario: 

Capital flight from the city and overseas investors causes a massive recession in financial services and a crash in PCL property, much of that is converted to social housing, but unemployment is higher and inflation picks up due to the pound crashing. London is a better place to live for the majority, but in brexitland higher inflation means that many people can’t afford to buy a pint, and they don’t like reading the new nationalised Daily Mail. So they restart the good old fashioned British tradition of burning piers.

 

Rightwing scenario:

London as a tax haven - Singapore on Thames. A huge rise in overseas investors and financial institutions as taxes are cut and money laundering rules are relaxed. London is filled with Bentleys and they bulldoze the rest of the social housing in Kensington and Chelsea to make way for the Saudi royal family’s new summer residence. Social cleansing results in a large number of impoverished Londoners moving to brexitland where they enthusiastically embrace the local custom of burning piers.

 

Basically, whatever happens the piers are f-ked.

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On 7/21/2017 at 8:54 AM, iamnumerate said:

No one knows, no one predicted concrete blocks everywhere to stop terrorism even 3 years ago.

 

Err what? the ring of plastic is decades old.

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Whites are already a 48% minority in London. In another ten years, it will probably be below 40%. Give it 25 years and that figure will be closer to 25%.

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On 20/07/2017 at 2:12 PM, Fromage Frais said:

London will not tolerate a property crash and serious recession well.

Different ethnic groups and religions (and indeed locals) call get on well when either rich and educated or paid to behave via tax credits when poor.

Riots and large scale conflicts often imported from other parts of the world coming if these payments stop or inflation cuts them by enough.

City centre living is cool at the moment but I remember as a child the higher rates of crime and vandalism that made my parents think back then the suburbs where a good idea.

The boom in London relies on rich tourists/expats being able to walk down the street flashing the cash etc and getting in their nice car.

if the cars start getting vandalised and people keep getting acid sprayed in their face its not going to become more attractive.

You're right that in the past people fled the inner city parts that have now been gentrified - Notting Hill, Islington, Brixton etc.

A large part of this is tourism - including the 6 months learn a language by working in a cafe-bar variety. Over the years tourism has continued to rise - so much so that certain city residents are forming action groups to halt it eg Venice, Barcelona.

The question that needs to be answered is this - Are we likely to see a downturn in the appeal of London as a tourist destination? I doubt it, but things could change quickly, especially if street crime really becomes rampant.

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More on the rise of tourist numbers overwhelming some cities (not London, which is big enough to absorb numbers)

 

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/aug/04/tourism-kills-neighbourhoods-save-city-break?utm_content=buffer88459&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Quote

The rise of “city breaks” – 48-hour bursts of foreign cultures, easier on the pocket and annual leave balance – has increased tourist numbers, but not their geographic spread. The same attractions have been used to market cities such as Paris, Barcelona and Venice for decades, and visitors use the same infrastructure as residents to reach them. “Too many people do the same thing at the exact same time,” says Font. “For locals, the city no longer belongs to them.”

Compounding the problem is Airbnb, which, like credit cards and mobile roaming, has made tourists more casual in their approach to international travel, but added to residents’ headaches. Landlords stand to earn more from renting their properties to tourists than they do to permanent tenants. Those who share their apartment blocks with Airbnb hosts have been incredulous, says Font: “‘No longer do we have to share the streets with tourists, we have to share our own buildings?’ We get residents saying, ‘I don’t want my neighbourhood to become like the city centre.’”

 

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This seems relevant ....

 

Europe Is Committing Demographic Suicide

"In the coming 30 years, the number of Africans will grow by more than one billion people. That is twice the population of the entire European Union... The demographic pressure will be enormous. Last year, more than 180,000 people crossed in shabby boats from Libya. And this is just the beginning. According to EU Commissioner Avramopoulos, at this very moment, 3 million migrants are waiting to enter Europe". — Geert Wilders, MP, The Netherlands, and leader of the Party for Freedom and Democracy 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/europe-committing-demographic-suicide

 

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