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LondonBound

Home improvement slowdown

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It's not just the direct housing market that is slowing, now seeing evidence that consumers (and developers) are not spending on existing houses like they used to  

A profit warning from window maker Safestyle has sent shares down 15% (and 33% below May peak). Apparently the market for double glazed windows is down 10% on last year. 

More signs of an increasingly shakey consumer not will to spend pimping a potentially depreciating asset  

Sure there will be others soon (Tips Tiles etc.). 

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Watch Kingfisher (B&Q and Screwfix) share price - (well down - I know I own some as a hedge) and the carpet retailers are also a good indicator.  The low transaction volumes are a serious headache for DIY retailers etc...people spend money on home improvements when they move.

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21 hours ago, LondonBound said:

It's not just the direct housing market that is slowing, now seeing evidence that consumers (and developers) are not spending on existing houses like they used to  

A profit warning from window maker Safestyle has sent shares down 15% (and 33% below May peak). Apparently the market for double glazed windows is down 10% on last year. 

More signs of an increasingly shakey consumer not will to spend pimping a potentially depreciating asset  

Sure there will be others soon (Tips Tiles etc.). 

I've always been amazed at the solvency of Topps Tiles.

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Dropping IRs, doing QE to lend to people and ten years on we've reached proper peak madness....now there is no where to go

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.....BUT DOWN.

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Dropping IRs, doing QE to lend to people and ten years on we've reached proper peak madness....now there is no where to go

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.....BUT DOWN.

And visit the skip on the way to start getting rid of accumulated tat.

I heard an Ikea boss last year describe the Western World as being at what he called "Peak Stuff".

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OMG. My inlaws live in a five bed house and have so much tat they can't move. Some of the bedrooms you can't sleep in. I call him Mr Treebus. We're going to have to get a skip in eventually. I'd welcome less stuff. The effort they put into looking after the stuff is crazy.

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23 hours ago, LondonBound said:

It's not just the direct housing market that is slowing, now seeing evidence that consumers (and developers) are not spending on existing houses like they used to  

A profit warning from window maker Safestyle has sent shares down 15% (and 33% below May peak). Apparently the market for double glazed windows is down 10% on last year. 

 

Are safestyle any good do you know by chance, d/g has always been a proper minefield in my experience

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You only have to go to Ikea to see their wee microflat layouts to see what the new generation think they will need. 

No sign of any lawnmowers there.

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4 hours ago, Wayward said:

...people spend money on home improvements when they move.

That's true, but I think it's also true that some will spend on home improvements if they feel house prices are increasing - they think their future house price increase will pay for the new £10K bathroom.  That's a reason I've heard more than once from smug tradesmen.  Now prices are technically falling (MoM, and widely reported in the press), I can imagine people absolutely putting on hold any improvements.  I will not shed a tear for any trades on this one.  They lost me with their magnolia paint "flipped" properties, and all this endless talk of property being these big cash cows to milk.  About time the tables turned.  Mwahahahaha

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Agree with canbuywontbuy, people spend not necessarily when they're moving but when they're trapped in their current size house.

We've spent a bit on ours as maintenance and a few things to make it nicer *for us* to live in but nothing else as it's near on impossible to get a tradie in, or quote a sensible price.

The next 12 months will be very interesting. 

If they don't crash by next summer we'll sell up and leave and if they do we'll sell up and buy a bigger place.

It's a win/win for me.

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Two self-employed tradesmen on the same street I live in. Over the past twelve months their vans have increasingly been parked on the street outside their own houses on weekdays.

I've lived in the same street for over 10 years and this is the first time I can recall this happening. Even during the 2007-2008 crisis, they were still getting work.

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Asked a builder to come and quote a project (London). Was told they're booked until March 2018. 

London mate waited 6mo to get a builder this year. Would make my life hell of a lot easier if I could get someone in when I need them instead of next year.

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5 minutes ago, winkie said:

A granite worktop, few twigs, designer cushions and a magnolia pain job no longer adds £20k to the price of a staged home.;)

What a pain job ?

 

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11 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

What a pain job ?

 

....the pain in painting.....why paint when no pleasure in making thousands from a tin of paint?;)

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My guess is that, as owner-occupation rates fall, the whole structure of the home improvement market will change. You'll get people in their 30s and 40s on decent incomes who would have been buying a new kitchen etc a decade ago but, because they are renting, they'll instead buy something that can be taken with them when the tenancy ends. I rent an unfurnished place and just think of it as a basic shell that I can turn into a home by putting good-quality furniture into. If that way of living becomes more widespread then it's bad news for people who sell tiles, lino etc and good news for people who sell decent sofas, rugs and accessories. 

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I got 70 quid for my van when I scraped it last week. Not bad but they would have paid 150 a few years ago. Maybe it`s possible to see prices fall to zero over the next year.

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16 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

There has to be a point where all the houses have been improved so no more spending on DIY for a while

Bliss......no more stuff no space for, no more tat, no more bits, no more pieces, nicks nor knacks that gather dust....going for a walk, the redecorating beauty of nature that keeps changing, always something fresh and new to view...there for the taking.;)

 

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3 hours ago, Darby Ram said:

My guess is that, as owner-occupation rates fall, the whole structure of the home improvement market will change. You'll get people in their 30s and 40s on decent incomes who would have been buying a new kitchen etc a decade ago but, because they are renting, they'll instead buy something that can be taken with them when the tenancy ends. I rent an unfurnished place and just think of it as a basic shell that I can turn into a home by putting good-quality furniture into. If that way of living becomes more widespread then it's bad news for people who sell tiles, lino etc and good news for people who sell decent sofas, rugs and accessories. 

Interesting perspective and follows on from Paul Hodges demographic theories re 25-54 age group being the economic driving force as it nests and has chicks........Me and Mrs P being prime examples.

Thinking about it,renting has saved me a fortune.

 

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3 hours ago, Darby Ram said:

My guess is that, as owner-occupation rates fall, the whole structure of the home improvement market will change. You'll get people in their 30s and 40s on decent incomes who would have been buying a new kitchen etc a decade ago but, because they are renting, they'll instead buy something that can be taken with them when the tenancy ends. I rent an unfurnished place and just think of it as a basic shell that I can turn into a home by putting good-quality furniture into. If that way of living becomes more widespread then it's bad news for people who sell tiles, lino etc and good news for people who sell decent sofas, rugs and accessories. 

I agree and perhaps this explains the rise of car loans. Chap I work with is on an average salary, rents in a large house share with his GF and three others and has a BMW 530d which apparently would be £18k to buy!

Meanwhile I've just bought a house and make do with my 12 yr old diesel VW with 150k on the clock. I'll be dropping about £5k next month on new floors and some paint. 

Might wish I'd gone for the Lamborghini I could have just about purchased with my deposit and stamp duty. :(

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This thread provoked me to review the pages of saved properties we'd amassed during and after our search. They've virtually all SSTCd. The only one that hasn't is a POA that needs demolishing. It's on a decent plot though so if it's still on when I've finished this one I might ask them what they're hoping for :D  

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57 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Interesting perspective and follows on from Paul Hodges demographic theories re 25-54 age group being the economic driving force as it nests and has chicks........Me and Mrs P being prime examples.

Thinking about it,renting has saved me a fortune.

 

 

26 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Meanwhile I've just bought a house and make do with my 12 yr old diesel VW with 150k on the clock. I'll be dropping about £5k next month on new floors and some paint. 

Yeah, my back of an envelope estimate is that you could furnish an unfurnished flat/small house from scratch for around £5K, and buy good enough quality stuff that it will last you ten years. If you had the patience to do the furniture part via an auction, you could probably get things even cheaper that would last even longer. But, regardless, the difference between a rented flat that you furnish yourself and a furnished flat that a landlord has thrown together from stuff in the local charity shop is like night and day. I'm sure that, as the nesting instinct kicks in and tenants become older/wealthier, people will just gravitate towards that option. (Also, having seen how cost effective this method is, if I bought in the future, you'd have a hard time convincing me to drop ten grand on a new kitchen unless it was a true crime against good taste; I'd just buy a fancy toaster to distract people. :D)  

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I bet they are listed on a junior market maybe AIM so this may in part be to crap financial reporting. My other guess was more people buying htb new builds but I am still thinking it's classic AIM behaviour!

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