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TheCountOfNowhere

The "crunch" word

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"He said: "Buyers, many of whom are sellers too, will struggle to afford to pay much more."

And that;s with IRs and Mortgage rates at unbelievably/crimionally low levels.

""Wage growth is muted, there are signs that consumer credit is tightening, and at some point there will be the first rise in mortgage interest rates for a decade "

What I dont get is...what happened to all these foreign buyers piling into UK pwoparee.

"It also reported that the level of overseas-based landlords has more than halved since 2010, reaching a record low."

Where are they ?

Maybe the MSM propaganda machine were bidding young peoples ownership aspirations "against the wall".

UK pwopatee is a mugs game.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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15 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

What I dont get is...what happened to all these foreign buyers piling into UK pwoparee.

Well... articles like this, for example, in the Khaleej Times might put one or two off! ;)

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/real-estate/why-london-property-faces-a-bear-market-in-2018

As inflation rises, consumer sentiment will plummet across the UK and insane affordability metrics mean the falls in home prices in some micro-market will be draconian. For instance, I can easily see a 50 per cent fall in the Nine Elms/Battersea new-build flats as thousands of Asian and GCC speculators bought crazily expensive, cramped condos with no resale value on leverage from dubious developers (get killed while trying to make a killing in Manhattan on Thames ya habibi!) From Malaysia, China and the Gulf. Battersea/Nine Elms will be a graveyard for leveraged speculators in 2018. Transaction volumes in London will fall as banks tighten mortgage loan underwriting protocols and Britain faces another bout of 1970s-style "stagflation". The dire current account deficit and angst over Brexit could trigger another global speculative run on sterling. High loan to value bank mortgages will become less easy to procure once interest rates and inflation rise.

This year and even 2018 will be difficult for homeowners and investors as the macro shocks to the UK economy and housing market converge - inflation, sterling, the UK current account, immigration controls, higher tax duty, the rise of populist class warfare, a Labour Party resurgence. Gulf investors must brace for billions of dollars of losses in their UK property portfolios. The outlook for London commercial property is also dismal, as international banks downsize in the City and shift staff to Dublin, Frankfurt and Berlin.

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12 minutes ago, Mapatasy said:

Well... articles like this, for example, in the Khaleej Times might put one or two off! ;)

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/real-estate/why-london-property-faces-a-bear-market-in-2018

As inflation rises, consumer sentiment will plummet across the UK and insane affordability metrics mean the falls in home prices in some micro-market will be draconian. For instance, I can easily see a 50 per cent fall in the Nine Elms/Battersea new-build flats as thousands of Asian and GCC speculators bought crazily expensive, cramped condos with no resale value on leverage from dubious developers (get killed while trying to make a killing in Manhattan on Thames ya habibi!) From Malaysia, China and the Gulf. Battersea/Nine Elms will be a graveyard for leveraged speculators in 2018. Transaction volumes in London will fall as banks tighten mortgage loan underwriting protocols and Britain faces another bout of 1970s-style "stagflation". The dire current account deficit and angst over Brexit could trigger another global speculative run on sterling. High loan to value bank mortgages will become less easy to procure once interest rates and inflation rise.

This year and even 2018 will be difficult for homeowners and investors as the macro shocks to the UK economy and housing market converge - inflation, sterling, the UK current account, immigration controls, higher tax duty, the rise of populist class warfare, a Labour Party resurgence. Gulf investors must brace for billions of dollars of losses in their UK property portfolios. The outlook for London commercial property is also dismal, as international banks downsize in the City and shift staff to Dublin, Frankfurt and Berlin.

You dont have to be a genius to see that the conservatives will loose and a hard left wing government will come in.

Its baked in at the moment.

Who are the left going to rinse first obviously foreign investors.

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41 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

You dont have to be a genius to see that the conservatives will loose and a hard left wing government will come in.

Its baked in at the moment.

Who are the left going to rinse first second obviously foreign investors.

The local population has already been rinsed.

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43 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

You dont have to be a genius to see that the conservatives will loose and a hard left wing government will come in.

Its baked in at the moment.

Who are the left going to rinse first obviously foreign investors.

Just had an election and that didn't happen despite literally the worst campaign by the Conservatives I've ever seen. 

Hats of to Corbyn for being so determined. He lost though. 

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23 hours ago, adarmo said:

Just had an election and that didn't happen despite literally the worst campaign by the Conservatives I've ever seen. 

Hats of to Corbyn for being so determined. He lost though. 

It did not happen overall

but it did happen all age groups under 40

Whats the difference around that exact demographic zone where people change into Conservative voters.

Yes its home ownership.

yes they lost but if I was a conservative planner I would not want to blindly keep going down a path thats killing my vote.

 

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1 hour ago, Fromage Frais said:

It did not happen overall

but it did happen all age groups under 40

Whats the difference around that exact demographic zone where people change into Conservative voters.

Yes its home ownership.

yes they lost but if I was a conservative planner I would not want to blindly keep going down a path thats killing my vote.

 

It's insane that the under 40's voted Labour when it that party that fiddled the inflation target for BoE, borrowed intensively, hiked house prices to the moon by various methods and introduced tuition, and then doubled them. 

Tories wanted to make people with big expensive houses pay for their own in home care (rather than making the young pay for it) and the young voted against that! who introduced SDLT 3% surcharges and new rules for BTL LLs? Who abolished tenant's fees?

Frankly, and I include myself in the under 40 demographic, I'm appalled by the idiocy of my fellow generation when it comes to Labour support and especially when they have somehow hijacked the morale high-ground with their hyperbole. Especially pleased by today's news showing that inequality has fallen since 2008, under mostly Non-Labour stewardship. 

Another difference around that demographic zone is life experience and seeing the damage done by a Labour administration. 

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6 minutes ago, adarmo said:

It's insane that the under 40's voted Labour when it that party that fiddled the inflation target for BoE, borrowed intensively, hiked house prices to the moon by various methods and introduced tuition, and then doubled them. 

Tories wanted to make people with big expensive houses pay for their own in home care (rather than making the young pay for it) and the young voted against that! who introduced SDLT 3% surcharges and new rules for BTL LLs? Who abolished tenant's fees?

Frankly, and I include myself in the under 40 demographic, I'm appalled by the idiocy of my fellow generation when it comes to Labour support and especially when they have somehow hijacked the morale high-ground with their hyperbole. Especially pleased by today's news showing that inequality has fallen since 2008, under mostly Non-Labour stewardship. 

Another difference around that demographic zone is life experience and seeing the damage done by a Labour administration. 

I don't buy the argument for all the Young people voting Labour and the old home owners voting Conservative. Home ownership was over 65% through the Blair years... what happened then?! Not all under 40s suck on the Labour BS teat (****** the tories too but that's another matter.... :P).

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5 minutes ago, adarmo said:

It's insane that the under 40's voted Labour when it that party that fiddled the inflation target for BoE, borrowed intensively, hiked house prices to the moon by various methods and introduced tuition, and then doubled them. 

Tories wanted to make people with big expensive houses pay for their own in home care (rather than making the young pay for it) and the young voted against that! who introduced SDLT 3% surcharges and new rules for BTL LLs? Who abolished tenant's fees?

Frankly, and I include myself in the under 40 demographic, I'm appalled by the idiocy of my fellow generation when it comes to Labour support and especially when they have somehow hijacked the morale high-ground with their hyperbole. Especially pleased by today's news showing that inequality has fallen since 2008, under mostly Non-Labour stewardship. 

Another difference around that demographic zone is life experience and seeing the damage done by a Labour administration. 

The tories were just as bad for continuing the status quo - they may have criticised the policies when Labour was in power but they continued the money printing and asset price underpinning when they got in.

 

Corbyn's popularity stems from the same source that Trump's popularity comes from - people are fed up with the typical 'establishment insider' political leader and want something different.  The problem is that they just have a gut feeling that they are being screwed over, they haven't taken the time to find out exactly how it is that they have been exploited.

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14 minutes ago, adarmo said:

It's insane that the under 40's voted Labour when it that party that fiddled the inflation target for BoE, borrowed intensively, hiked house prices to the moon by various methods and introduced tuition, and then doubled them. 

Tories wanted to make people with big expensive houses pay for their own in home care (rather than making the young pay for it) and the young voted against that! who introduced SDLT 3% surcharges and new rules for BTL LLs? Who abolished tenant's fees?

Frankly, and I include myself in the under 40 demographic, I'm appalled by the idiocy of my fellow generation when it comes to Labour support and especially when they have somehow hijacked the morale high-ground with their hyperbole. Especially pleased by today's news showing that inequality has fallen since 2008, under mostly Non-Labour stewardship. 

Another difference around that demographic zone is life experience and seeing the damage done by a Labour administration. 

TB was New Labour

JC is Old Labour

big difference

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TB is 'Yesterday's man' but he just won't go away!.....For someone who 'Day by day' is getting closer to being indicted for war crimes you would think he would be a little less 'high profile'!

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4 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

The tories were just as bad for continuing the status quo - they may have criticised the policies when Labour was in power but they continued the money printing and asset price underpinning when they got in.

 

Corbyn's popularity stems from the same source that Trump's popularity comes from - people are fed up with the typical 'establishment insider' political leader and want something different.  The problem is that they just have a gut feeling that they are being screwed over, they haven't taken the time to find out exactly how it is that they have been exploited.

That's true. However, I think that the Tories would not have put us in that position in the first place. Obviously there's no way to know for sure so what I think there can be disregarded. What is interesting though is that the Tories have done much for tenants and have bashed landlords (indebted ones only so far) with additional taxes. I didn't see Labour pushing for this but perhaps Corbyn will stop promising the Earth and then demoting it to 'ambition' status and start picking up fewer but more meaningful policies. 

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4 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

TB was New Labour

JC is Old Labour

big difference

Another big difference is Tony won elections. 

Labour is Labour, Tory is Tory and a poo is a poo. Labour is ruled by the unions (check out the Miliband Romulusic episode).

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7 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

The Hur-rah band...

 

 

I was going to post a video of the same tune!  B)

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1 hour ago, MattW said:

I was going to post a video of the same tune!  B)

Great tune, still stand up imo. I'm old enough to remember when it came out in 1977.

Found quite a good remix ..

  The Crunch - Eye-In-The-Sky Remix by The RAH Band

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HltAd81_zxE

Calling Dt Mark to find us a techno version !

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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9 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

TB was New Labour

JC is Old Labour

big difference

Not just that, but this kind of change is the only kind of change our political system allows. 

For the most part, you can only vote Labour or Tory. If you deny the possibility for those parties to change, ever, then you might as well never vote. 

In any case, the Tories have been in power for 7 years, and have expended significant effort pumping a second housing bubble. They could have let the first one deflate with no effort, and put the blame on the Labours.  We all hoped they would, but they didn't.

All hypothesising about what they might or might not have done is irrelevant, what they have actually done is inflate a housing bubble.  

So you have a choice: vote for a party that inflated a housing bubble, or vote for a party that inflated a housing bubble but has now significantly changed direction.

Yeah, it is shit, but that's how it is.   

Edited by DrBuyToLeech

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