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TheCountOfNowhere

HOUSE PRICE PLUNGE !!!!

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https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3979408/fresh-fears-of-housing-market-collapse-as-new-data-suggests-property-prices-are-falling/

 

HOUSE PRICE PLUNGE 

Fresh fears of housing market collapse as new data suggests property prices are falling

A leading indicator of house price movement is set to be released this week

 

es-house-price-fall-landscape-3-x-2new01

Either a collapse is well under way ( as we expect from watching London last 2 years ) or they they are trying to soften up the old people in time for a 2nd EU ref. or G.E.

 

 

 

 

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I really do think there could be a "Rephrase the Question" for sure over Brexit ahead- because there is no sign whatsoever of any activity around the border in Ireland. Nothing. No new fences. No Wall yet. But I don't think that's the HPC trigger. I think all it takes is a gradual increase in numbers of people starting to feel like they are sinking financially. Silently keep their own plates spinning, while their fear goes up. And I think that fear is infectious, they hold back from purchases, word spreads and it's tipping point. 

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12 minutes ago, Thorn said:

I really do think there could be a "Rephrase the Question" for sure over Brexit ahead- because there is no sign whatsoever of any activity around the border in Ireland. Nothing. No new fences. No Wall yet. But I don't think that's the HPC trigger. I think all it takes is a gradual increase in numbers of people starting to feel like they are sinking financially. Silently keep their own plates spinning, while their fear goes up. And I think that fear is infectious, they hold back from purchases, word spreads and it's tipping point. 

Been there for some time AFAICT.

Have a relative in Surrey who shops at Lidl and talk about cutting back to save some cash....whilst livi9ng in their supposed "£1.4M" house...

Something doesnt quite feel right.

My wife and I also now shop in Lidl and have cut back on how much champagne we drink.

Hard times all round.

 

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All seems fine for people until it isn't. It's the Ernest Hemingway point- how did you go bankrupt? "Slowly at first, then all at once."

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2 minutes ago, Thorn said:

All seems fine for people until it isn't. It's the Ernest Hemingway point- how did you go bankrupt? "Slowly at first, then all at once."

That's what I love about HPC...some of the posts are priceless.

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WTAF is going on with that graph from the Scum? The X-axis looks like it's been managed by a toddler - only were it written in crayon could it look any more amateurish..

While I think it's great that the narrative is changing apparently in our favour, we all know that the MSM exists primarily as a means of manipulating the masses and this relatively sudden blanket change of attitude concerns me somewhat.

On the one hand it could just be a drive to soften up public attitude in the face of an inevitable crash, a means of putting the brakes on HPI in an effort to string it out until the next election opportunity, or a pre-cursor to more props.. although the props have always been (mis)sold off the back of "affordability" for the young and poor in the past - which of course will no longer wash since (all things all being equal) cheaper properties are more affordable.

Are we, in all out glee and expectation, missing some fundamental, dark play going on here?

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2 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

Lets not forget, many BTL landlords are not stupid, reptilian and evil yes. The bright ones who have made some good money, by that I mean doubling, trebling their money or better, I hope will now be thinking a 10% loss on highs will be still leave me quids in. This type of thinking will be the push of the tyre on the first few feet of the mountain, it then becomes unstopable.

Certainly going be interesting, the insanely low yields in the SE have been justified by "it'll go up in value by x by year xxxx, so it doesn't matter if I'm breaking even at the moment". This in in a rising market on record low interest rates, basically as good is it will ever be for them.

Now we're in a falling market, with emerging market investors pulling out of yet-to-be finished new builds, BTL tax changes not even kicking in yet (if they understand them), falling rents, massive shift in HPI sentiment, greater stress testing, and talk of gradual IR rises.

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7 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

Lets not forget, many BTL landlords are not stupid, reptilian and evil yes. The bright ones who have made some good money, by that I mean doubling, trebling their money or better, I hope will now be thinking a 10% loss on highs will be still leave me quids in. This type of thinking will be the push of the tyre on the first few feet of the mountain, it then becomes unstopable.

most of those winners have been off the back of debt/leverage.

That 10% fall ( as you estimate it, more like 10-60% depending on area ) levered up will be enough to sink most of these savvy investors.

There's propbably a good reason fungus has not sold his portfolio and surely he is the cleverest of men.

The clever ones sold and got out as soon as the 2007 "RECOVERY" saved thier necks....so far I can only see the one.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2616510/Duke-Westminsters-property-company-sells-240million-luxury-homes-fears-London-bubble-burst.html

The rest are partying at the prospect of winning forever....

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3 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

m

 

4 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

WTAF is going on with that graph from the Scum? The X-axis looks like it's been managed by a toddler 

Who cares...it has only one purpose...to scare or warn people.


Either they want BrExit over turned or prices have already tanked

 

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3979408/fresh-fears-of-housing-market-collapse-as-new-data-suggests-property-prices-are-falling/

 

HOUSE PRICE PLUNGE 

Fresh fears of housing market collapse as new data suggests property prices are falling

A leading indicator of house price movement is set to be released this week

 

es-house-price-fall-landscape-3-x-2new01

Either a collapse is well under way ( as we expect from watching London last 2 years ) or they they are trying to soften up the old people in time for a 2nd EU ref. or G.E.

 

 

 

 

The graph suggests a move from 220ish down to 130ish. That would be a 40% plunge.

Seems also to suggest that will happen by July 2017.

Party now?

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7 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Certainly going be interesting, the insanely low yields in the SE have been justified by "it'll go up in value by x by year xxxx, so it doesn't matter if I'm breaking even at the moment". This in in a rising market on record low interest rates, basically as good is it will ever be for them.

Now we're in a falling market, with emerging market investors pulling out of yet-to-be finished new builds, BTL tax changes not even kicking in yet (if they understand them), falling rents, massive shift in HPI sentiment, greater stress testing, and talk of gradual IR rises.

Not quite - I suspect most people won't be willing to sell until its too late (yes I know prices are falling but those are far worse quality, location, twigs in vase than our rental) and will just keep the property rented out until its too late to escape...

For most the time frame for disaster will be either:-

1) Tenant moves out and no one can't be found - leading to mortgage default and repossession. House is then sold at auction and the significant shortfall recovered from the BTLer by repossessing the BTLer's main house 

or 

2) Discounted mortgage period comes to an end. Remortgage options are not available leading to the BTL being mortgage reverting to Standard Variable rate. BTLer attempts to keep the property going by paying the £xxx extra on the mortgage until he fails to do so. mortgage default and repossession. House is then sold at auction and the significant shortfall recovered from the BTLer by repossessing the BTLer's main house 

 

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11 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Certainly going be interesting, the insanely low yields in the SE have been justified by "it'll go up in value by x by year xxxx, so it doesn't matter if I'm breaking even at the moment". This in in a rising market on record low interest rates, basically as good is it will ever be for them.

Now we're in a falling market, with emerging market investors pulling out of yet-to-be finished new builds, BTL tax changes not even kicking in yet (if they understand them), falling rents, massive shift in HPI sentiment, greater stress testing, and talk of gradual IR rises.

One unmentioned factor is that with a new gov who can probably stay in power 5 years it's possibly the best opportunity for them to let a fast crash happen .... BUT WILL THEY?

In the past the choice has always been to save the bubble and trash the pound which is perhaps now the only option again.

[The 5 years is assuming that a DUP deal remains - very likely AND that they don't lose more than a few MPs by defection and by-elections - less likely.]

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12 minutes ago, ebull said:

In the past the choice has always been to save the bubble and trash the pound which is perhaps now the only option again.

This is exactly the defeatist perspective we must all now start to challenge ourselves on, sentiment has made a huge shift in the past year or two as the parents have to make massive handouts to their kids to get on the "ladder".

What's the point in me saving into a Tory Blue HTB ISA which reaches it's maximum of £12k + 3k top up in 2020 (when the original GE should have been held) if house prices have doubled by then, where will the young(ish) upper working/lower middle class couple votes lie?

I think rapid crash (falsely blame Brexit) followed by steady inflation linked rises is the desired path for all parties. London will always be a speculative market to some extent but hopefully quite a notch down from the recent madness, particularly if mass financial institution relocation to EU goes ahead and we don't end up becoming a generous tax haven.

Edited by Barnsey

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20 minutes ago, Houdini said:

2) Discounted mortgage period comes to an end. Remortgage options are not available leading to the BTL being mortgage reverting to Standard Variable rate. BTLer attempts to keep the property going by paying the £xxx extra on the mortgage until he fails to do so. mortgage default and repossession. House is then sold at auction and the significant shortfall recovered from the BTLer by repossessing the BTLer's main house

Bring on April 2018!

house-prices-21.png?strip=all&quality=10

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/3781723/house-prices-across-england-and-wales-soar-by-4-8-to-hit-a-new-record-high-of-303200/

Edited by Barnsey

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19 minutes ago, Houdini said:

Not quite - I suspect most people won't be willing to sell until its too late (yes I know prices are falling but those are far worse quality, location, twigs in vase than our rental) and will just keep the property rented out until its too late to escape...

For most the time frame for disaster will be either:-

1) Tenant moves out and no one can't be found - leading to mortgage default and repossession. House is then sold at auction and the significant shortfall recovered from the BTLer by repossessing the BTLer's main house 

or 

2) Discounted mortgage period comes to an end. Remortgage options are not available leading to the BTL being mortgage reverting to Standard Variable rate. BTLer attempts to keep the property going by paying the £xxx extra on the mortgage until he fails to do so. mortgage default and repossession. House is then sold at auction and the significant shortfall recovered from the BTLer by repossessing the BTLer's main house 

 

I expect a whole lot of 2

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35 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I think rapid crash (falsely blame Brexit) followed by steady inflation linked rises is the desired path for all parties. London will always be a speculative market to some extent but hopefully quite a notch down from the recent madness, particularly if mass financial institution relocation to EU goes ahead and we don't end up becoming a generous tax haven.

I think you are spot on and won't necessarily trash the pound, it's at a level which will hold I think and IO rises will support it. I don't personally buy the line that the Tories will voluntarily give up power so Corbyn can have the S***, power is a seductive thing and they will thinking about 2022 now so a crash a la 2007 -2009 early 2010 is very appealing I would of thought.

Also think the DUP deal will hold after all both Unionists and the £1 billion probably tip of the iceberg even Gerry Adams said he doesn't like how it came about but it is good for the country !

Edited by Greg Bowman

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Way back in 1990, I was trying to sell my house as I had to move job. I remember thinking that once it got into the media it had already happened.

It's one of those situations where if you aren't directly involved it's difficult to see it happening.

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52 minutes ago, ebull said:

The graph suggests a move from 220ish down to 130ish. That would be a 40% plunge.

Seems also to suggest that will happen by July 2017.

Party now?

That would be something - think you meant 2018.

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