TheCountOfNowhere Posted July 10, 2017 Author Share Posted July 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: still managing the shite show of the financial crisis, which we all know never went away Nail....Head. As Vengers says, the banks at some point will be in a position to take a hit ( including the 20% HTB protection they've already been handed ), that time looks to be now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stop_the_craziness Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 I can scarcely dare to dream that we are there. But when I am certain I shall be painting "I told you so" on my face and not ever, ever washing it off. That will save me a billion conversations of the "why haven't you bought a house yet?" that I have endured for the last DECADE. Please let us be there. Please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Not there yet.....the talk comes first, that is happening, news travels fast, preparing people to what is set to happen or would be good if it happens....like saying there is a shortage of butter and cheese, prepare for big price increases, both winners and losers...winners can't be winning all of the time. .....gazump turns into a gazunder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnglishinWales Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 By Christmas this will be a vastly different country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Hug Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Thanks to the f**king endless props it really feels like the stars are aligning, even though we are just heading where we should have already been a long time ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neon tetra Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 8 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: When the Sun speaks to the masses...the masses listen.... This question mark, and the child's play extrapolation of the graph, oh so simple for Sun readers, might just be the most encouraging thing I've seen this past 7 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 8 hours ago, jiltedjen said: I think this is 2007 and the big falls will start to happen at the end of the year into 2008 I hate to admit it but 'brink' is a pretty good word, we are on the brink. 3-6 more months before we are off to the races so 'no' but if you had more options I think you would see a more positive result I voted no but I also think we have the 'potential' that 2018 will be 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingermany Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Not there yet. Denial phase will be protracted in my opinion. Only higher interest rates will change that. Banks are doing their bit to rob their customers though. My 2 year fix ran out and I'm now on SVR of 4%. My savings in the same bank earn 0.000125%. I contacted the mortgage department. My savings exceed the mortgage loan by a ratio of 500%. The LTV is under 50%. They advertise an offset mortgage, which their calculator implies would set the mortgage rate at 0%. I've been in to the branch, gone online and tried all 3 mortgage telephone advice lines. On the last call they actually denied that I was even a customer. The branch promised a call back that never happened. They want me to stay on the 4% of course. Ive been a customer for over 25 years. As a taxpayer I even own 73% of the bank's shares. My only comfort is that if the banks all do their bit in fleecing the borrowers we might actually get the crash we badly need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted July 11, 2017 Author Share Posted July 11, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, ingermany said: Not there yet. Denial phase will be protracted in my opinion. Only higher interest rates will change that. Higher IRs is the equivalent of Higher prices, people taking on more debt at higher and higher levels afford with gifted deposits, schemes and teaser rates. People are waiting for an IR rise forgetting that a price rise has much the same affect on peolpes ability to pay. A small down turn and WHAM Prices are very high, extremely. Edited July 11, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calcutta Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 We've been 'there' since 24th June 2016. Carnage's interest rate cut, Gina Miller's court case, the government constantly contradicting themselves, the delay in Article 50, all designed to keep prices high long enough for the rich and powerful to get their dogs out of the fight. Everyone in a business dependant on hoards of desparate, exploitable new arrivals is in very serious trouble. Letting agents, recruitment agents, BTL, if they can find somewhere to park their rented cars perhaps they could finally find some use for the Shard - by throwing themselves out of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Bowman Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, Calcutta said: We've been 'there' since 24th June 2016. Carnage's interest rate cut, Gina Miller's court case, the government constantly contradicting themselves, the delay in Article 50, all designed to keep prices high long enough for the rich and powerful to get their dogs out of the fight. Everyone in a business dependant on hoards of desparate, exploitable new arrivals is in very serious trouble. Letting agents, recruitment agents, BTL, if they can find somewhere to park their rented cars perhaps they could finally find some use for the Shard - by throwing themselves out of it. Sort of the odd one out isn't it unless the recruitment industry works in a way I can't fathom and has something to do with property ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinAndPlatonic Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 (edited) A local estate agent which started originally 30 years ago, then combined with two others in 2007 has just closed down. I noticed yesterday the empty shop.. Edited July 11, 2017 by GinAndPlatonic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 They finally have a big excuse to crash prices with brexit, motivation with the youth vote. And feel confident enough to do it as the banks are in a better position with things like claims on BTL main residence. They also know the BOE will soon be forced to raise. It's better a managed crash, which the population is primed for, than a sudden shock. It's an easier pill to swollow. affordability ceiling was hit a year ago. no more flipping for easy money. 2018 will be our year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 What I find particularly encouraging at the moment is the lack of additional props in the pipeline. Even if something was announced today, it would take maybe six months to provide support to prices. So, the rest of 2017 certainly looks like falls. Then, looking forward, there are current props coming to an end in the coming months (FLS) and more tax blows to BTL. Throw in an IR rise and things get very interesting. Wonder what will happen to the Term Funding Scheme next month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, rantnrave said: What I find particularly encouraging at the moment is the lack of additional props in the pipeline. Even if something was announced today, it would take maybe six months to provide support to prices. So, the rest of 2017 certainly looks like falls. Then, looking forward, there are current props coming to an end in the coming months (FLS) and more tax blows to BTL. Throw in an IR rise and things get very interesting. Wonder what will happen to the Term Funding Scheme next month? That's critical. If Carney can get the TFS extended then HPC celebrations might be premature. OTH he's got to be careful. With inflation as high as it is now relative to incomes, and the UK economy as dependent as ever on imports, he dare not risk another run on the pound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, zugzwang said: That's critical. If Carney can get the TFS extended then HPC celebrations might be premature. TFS is running now and house prices are weakening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 very little they can do which would be politically acceptable. Even trashing the £ further would be too far. wonder relative to the £ value just how much london has fallen allready? 40%? all the houses im looking at ('second step' style houses) just seem to be sitting all around an unaffordable tight band, and not that much more expensive than the cheaper 'first step' houses. i suspect the market is compressed at the bottom end greatly. Once you get past the bottom end and second step, then the amount of house you get for your £ is massive. Very frustrating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 39 minutes ago, rantnrave said: TFS is running now and house prices are weakening. £6bn/month is much too little to make an impact. In any case, I suspect the banks are simply lending the Scheme cash to each other (as with TLTRO in Europe) rather than employing it in the economy proper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 (edited) S&P warns over slowing UK economy. Bank to remain ultra accommodative. No rate hike before 2019! https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-sees-a-uk-rate-hike-not-before-mid-2019-201707110947?yptr=yahoo Edited July 11, 2017 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted July 11, 2017 Author Share Posted July 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, zugzwang said: S&P warns over slowing UK economy. Bank to remain ultra accommodative. No rate hike before 2019! https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-sees-a-uk-rate-hike-not-before-mid-2019-201707110947?yptr=yahoo The criminals are running the market. And when hungry people take to the streets will the change then ? We cant be far off that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 It's still a long long way off. The danger is that we have a "crash" that knocks 20% off house prices, then it continues upwards. That's a mere retracement when looking at the Himalayan HPI growth charts over the last 15 years. 20% takes us back 2, 3, 4 years....big deal. Prices would need to be slashed by 60% to 80% to get to affordable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: The criminals are running the market. And when hungry people take to the streets will the change then ? We cant be far off that. S&P need to cut the UK's debt rating again. Back to A or A-. Keep tightening the noose. In effect saying to Hammond and Carney: Put the UK's finances in order, or we will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talking Monkey Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 22 hours ago, Greg Bowman said: Love the analogy and image although in my case being older, dad would of banged on Elvis or Sinatra Greg you lucky get, Elvis or Sinatra, your dad must have been a classy fella Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talking Monkey Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 3 hours ago, wotsthat said: 2008 should have been the year we had a crash, but to me it is quite comforting knowing after only 10 years, and in the bigger scheme of things that is not all that long a time, that £375 Billion QE, all those props, low rates, debt forgiveness etc etc etc we are now back at the point where we once again face the prospect of having a property crash like we should of done in the first place a decade ago. All the people thinking it has been insane for too long isn't it totally undestandable that the plates were kept spinning after all that was done. The UK was maxed out in 2008 and then out of the blue and right on the verge of the inevitable happening the credit card limit was increased in order to allow the party to go on that little bit longer. The argument back then was hopefully that something big in the economy would arrive and save us and make everything bad go away, but that something has not arrived, unless you include more debt. That something big did not arrive and there is nothing I can see on the horizon, best to let prices really crash hard and the UK gets back to being a proper economy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parkwell Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 The conditions are looking good and the signs are there but this time I’m not going to underestimate the stupidity of government intervention or the madness of crowds. I won’t let myself get carried away until at least two of the three major indices show annual drops. Hopefully that will happen by the end of the year. Otherwise I fear this will be a very protracted ‘crash’. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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