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North London Rent Girl

Radio 4 Moneybox - are house prices teetering on the brink of collapse?

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30 minutes ago, North London Rent Girl said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08x4s84

A not very radical discussion, supply and demand mostly, bit of interest rates, but they asked the question, lovely super.

Just asking is enough to scare people.

 

TPTB look to be going for the crash.

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And so the voice that reaches the HPI massive is starting to tell them what we've known for a while.

Expect this to be the dinner party convo round autumn and winter.

 

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I'm such a cynic when it comes to the HPI loving VI's within the MSM, ESPECIALLY the BBC, that even when I do read/hear pieces like this I can't help thinking it's more about putting pressure on TPTB to introduce more props... rather than just unbiased analysis and reporting of facts.

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12 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

TPTB look to be going for the crash.

I wonder whether a national "disaster" like a house price crash might help them cling to power over the next couple of years?

For all that Teresa May failed to convince people that she would provide a strong and stable government, the Conservatives have always tried to build their brand image around this kind of message. Thus, if things are getting difficult (e.g. war/floods/financial crisis), would the voting public want a Marxist revolution on top of that, or will they be happier to cling to the establishment as much as possible through the dark days?

Once we come out the other side, and some of the advantages of lower house prices, of not feeling compelled to buy an unaffordable car to "keep up" with the neighbours, and the cleansing feeling of being forced to live within our means, start to become apparent, the Conservatives can make the case that they led us through a necessary process, and better times lie ahead.

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30 minutes ago, Toast said:

I wonder whether a national "disaster" like a house price crash might help them cling to power over the next couple of years?

For all that Teresa May failed to convince people that she would provide a strong and stable government, the Conservatives have always tried to build their brand image around this kind of message. Thus, if things are getting difficult (e.g. war/floods/financial crisis), would the voting public want a Marxist revolution on top of that, or will they be happier to cling to the establishment as much as possible through the dark days?

Once we come out the other side, and some of the advantages of lower house prices, of not feeling compelled to buy an unaffordable car to "keep up" with the neighbours, and the cleansing feeling of being forced to live within our means, start to become apparent, the Conservatives can make the case that they led us through a necessary process, and better times lie ahead.

I think they'll happily apply the 'crash' levers. Firstly it can be blamed on Brexit so TPTB (the political class overwhelmingly wanted to remain) can get a second referendum in the bag.

Secondly more stimulus can be applied to UK plc. Not sure what that stimulus will be though, I think QE has had its day??? Maybe a tax handout of some form funded by the central bank.

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Late last night on Radio Four they referred to a growing "Kamikaze" strategy gaining traction within the Conservative Party whereby they let things go to **** as quickly as possible, get Corbyn in as quickly as possible and hope that he's left with the mess and can't sort it out so that they can re-group and look like they are coming back stronger the next time around. 

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It would make sense. We have said on here that the banks want volume on mortgage lending and the current market is gridlocked. 

They gov know they can't keep the plates spinning forever and brexit is the ideal scapegoat. That will also teach the proles to vote against the establishment. 

As said above in the chaos that follows the weak minded will seek security from a strong and stable (my ****) government. 

It does not feel like the market has really reached such difficulty that the msm would report it across the board as they appear to be doing at the moment. 

I think it's on. 

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Little drops of 1% are fine for the kind of water cooler chat we are seeing about house prices now.

When it gets real and we start to see 2% drops month after month, you will see the traditional media Shut Up about property completely - that is the one kind of bad news they do not want to spread. Property TV shows will get quietly dropped or they will just repeat old episodes from the 'good times', and the daily mail will go back to stirring hatred about immigrants and the royal family.

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Any crisis will be be used as a pretext to apply more stimulus, just as brexit was. The government has neither the power, inclination, or guts to do anything else. There is no way a housepricecrash can mean anything but electoral defeat for the tories now they have been weakened by the election result. 

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43 minutes ago, nothernsoul said:

Any crisis will be be used as a pretext to apply more stimulus, just as brexit was. The government has neither the power, inclination, or guts to do anything else. There is no way a housepricecrash can mean anything but electoral defeat for the tories now they have been weakened by the election result. 

I don't think the pound will take another round of QE.

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10 hours ago, nome said:

I'm such a cynic when it comes to the HPI loving VI's within the MSM, ESPECIALLY the BBC, that even when I do read/hear pieces like this I can't help thinking it's more about putting pressure on TPTB to introduce more props... rather than just unbiased analysis and reporting of facts.

I agree - since when have the mainstream media ever managed to correctly predict something like an economic crisis or HPC?  This smacks of getting the public ready to accept more loony policies to keep the plates spinning.

 

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some total dross uttered by the 'expert'...such as that house prices had increased over the decades due to increasing incomes....come on!

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15 hours ago, Tapori said:

And so the voice that reaches the HPI massive is starting to tell them what we've known for a while.

Expect this to be the dinner party convo round autumn and winter.

 

:D:D 

Loved this at uni. Didn't appreciate how close it was. 

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1 hour ago, wotsthat said:

I totally undestand where you are coming from, but I think you are wrong this time. And I say that as someone who has for last 5 years just laughed at anyone suggesting an imminent property crash was about to happen, though I always thought the property market was damaged beyond belief.

Without knowing you I suspect your understanding of commonsense and the obvious has been tested over and over again, it has me to a point, even to the point where I have doubted my undestanding of basic maths and logic, the fact that I am a member of MENSA cuts no ice.

What we have come to believe is that the property market has defied logic over and over again that it most be some kind of force none of us can relate to or understand. But the fact is the basic calculations so many people made 15 years ago as to why the property market should of crashed has never been wrong, it is just that there has been a few dozen gimmicks put in place to put the inevtiable off.

I havel learnt so much from this property crisis in the last decade, one thing I undestand more than ever is the art of manipulation and even brainwashing, even as I type this post I realise they have partly got to me as well even though I totally undestand what they have done

The fact is that there are people who earn double the average wage and cannot afford the cheapest properties 30 miles from where they work. Workers are watching people living free in housing benefit paid for homes while they live in slums and pay more than half their wage for the privilege. This just cannot go on, it won't go on, maybe you are right and they will stretch that little bit longer, but something now is starting to give, social unrest is on the cards

I agree wotsthat. Hearing local boomers now say 'house prices are going down' and withdrawing houses from sale at the moment in Belfast. Didn't hear that until recently here. Houses sitting for ages on the market near me being withdrawn from sale or now recently, quietly rented out. This current UK property vibe feels just like Ireland 2008 all over again. Questions,  panic and sleepless nights I would bet right now for the drivers of a lot of Evoques and the like. Gut instinct? Crash is on and won't be easily stopped.  

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6 hours ago, wotsthat said:

I totally undestand where you are coming from, but I think you are wrong this time. And I say that as someone who has for last 5 years just laughed at anyone suggesting an imminent property crash was about to happen, though I always thought the property market was damaged beyond belief.

Without knowing you I suspect your understanding of commonsense and the obvious has been tested over and over again, it has me to a point, even to the point where I have doubted my undestanding of basic maths and logic, the fact that I am a member of MENSA cuts no ice.

What we have come to believe is that the property market has defied logic over and over again that it most be some kind of force none of us can relate to or understand. But the fact is the basic calculations so many people made 15 years ago as to why the property market should of crashed has never been wrong, it is just that there has been a few dozen gimmicks put in place to put the inevtiable off.

I havel learnt so much from this property crisis in the last decade, one thing I undestand more than ever is the art of manipulation and even brainwashing, even as I type this post I realise they have partly got to me as well even though I totally undestand what they have done

The fact is that there are people who earn double the average wage and cannot afford the cheapest properties 30 miles from where they work. Workers are watching people living free in housing benefit paid for homes while they live in slums and pay more than half their wage for the privilege. This just cannot go on, it won't go on, maybe you are right and they will stretch that little bit longer, but something now is starting to give, social unrest is on the cards

Nah, don't worry your head. Instead, look at the shiny shiny.:D

Top post. Well said.

Edited by Tapori

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2 hours ago, Thorn said:

I agree wotsthat. Hearing local boomers now say 'house prices are going down' and withdrawing houses from sale at the moment in Belfast. Didn't hear that until recently here. Houses sitting for ages on the market near me being withdrawn from sale or now recently, quietly rented out. 

Until Section 24 stops them doing that :) Beautiful.

 

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