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jiltedjen

Volumes

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I have noticed the volumes for sale in my search ares (plymouth) have increased quite dramatically almost by 40%. They seem to of hit their all time lows around January/February time this year, which were pretty much all time lows also (not just seasonal). Volumes seem to have suddenly ramped up in June and still seem to be climbing. 

Whats everyone seeing with volumes in your local areas?
anyone have any hard data?

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Market appears to have grinded to a halt round here in NW, although that's just my opinion, with no figures backing it up.

According to RM, Jan/Feb had the lowest sales transactions for 4 years round here.

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8 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

I have noticed the volumes for sale in my search ares (plymouth) have increased quite dramatically almost by 40%. They seem to of hit their all time lows around January/February time this year, which were pretty much all time lows also (not just seasonal). Volumes seem to have suddenly ramped up in June and still seem to be climbing. 

Whats everyone seeing with volumes in your local areas?
anyone have any hard data?

Ive given up looking at for sale volume. All meaningless.

I look at the houses sold i nthe LR data.

Still on the floor in the places I track - way less than 20% of a normal market would be. But a normal market as not existed for almost 20 years.

What does it mean? Most people over 60 are going to leave their current house in a box.

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27 minutes ago, spyguy said:

What does it mean? Most people over 60 are going to leave their current house in a box.

And those are the only insdtructions priced sensibly.

And the only ones selling. Eas still having to fantasy price to win new instructions.

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Just now, Mapatasy said:

Why so?

As in For Sale listings.

They go on he EA/RM. Sit there. Then come off. There's places that have sat on RM for 5-10 years. This is not a market; its BS.

Pointless.

The only figures that are important are the LR transaction figures. The rest are just fantasy BS.

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Agree with spyguy. Only motivated sellers will sell and before long there will be lots of them. It doesn't take much commitment from a "seller" to list their property with an estate agent. There are plenty of time wasters , speculators and dreamers out there.

Market in Greater London seems well slow.

 

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1 minute ago, chicker said:

Agree with spyguy. Only motivated sellers will sell and before long there will be lots of them. It doesn't take much commitment from a "seller" to list their property with an estate agent. There are plenty of time wasters , speculators and dreamers out there.

Market in Greater London seems well slow.

 

But aren't things different now that the market is turning?

Surely, now the 'news is out', any spike in inventory levels is of great significance?

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54 minutes ago, Mapatasy said:

But aren't things different now that the market is turning?

Surely, now the 'news is out', any spike in inventory levels is of great significance?

Up till 2002 you have waht could be described as a normal market - transaction underwritten by FTBers.

From 2002, BTL became the market. People with houses were buying extra. People selling houses decided theyd keep it and 'let it out'.

Bascially, the last 15 years has seen a very small demographic horde housing. Or become very exposed to housing.

Now, BTL is rightly screwed. IO mortgages are going to get reamed - or put on a repayment.

MMR means mortgages are tied to earning, not some fantasy figure.

Outside of the public sector, real earnings have been falling for 10 years.

SO you have a small demographic how have multple houses (currently those in their 50s) looking to exit their position by selling to someone who's not had a wage rise for 10 years and can only borrow ~3 times earnings.

 

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Worse than ever in my 2 areas of interest (Anglesey/Snowdonia and Derbyshire)

 

I keep thinking my Rightmove property alert emails mustn't be coming through when I go days without getting anything... but no, there's literally nothing coming up for sale at all.

 

3 years ago I was getting around 4 alerts a day, I don't even get 4 in a whole week now.

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I'm not sure we've ever had a normal housing market, it's always been affected by interest rates, crazy lending, government wheezes etc.

Supply and demand has always been unbalanced for one reason or another.

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Up till 2002 you have waht could be described as a normal market - transaction underwritten by FTBers.

From 2002, BTL became the market. People with houses were buying extra. People selling houses decided theyd keep it and 'let it out'.

Bascially, the last 15 years has seen a very small demographic horde housing. Or become very exposed to housing.

Now, BTL is rightly screwed. IO mortgages are going to get reamed - or put on a repayment.

MMR means mortgages are tied to earning, not some fantasy figure.

Outside of the public sector, real earnings have been falling for 10 years.

SO you have a small demographic how have multple houses (currently those in their 50s) looking to exit their position by selling to someone who's not had a wage rise for 10 years and can only borrow ~3 times earnings.

 

Sounds about right to me.

main earner 30/35 second 20/25 = 50k in riches part of my area per houshold.

50/60k x 4.7 = 280 ish + circa 100k from mum and dad (remortgage) and you can buy a family house.

Not many with mums and dads with spare wonga but enough to keep this section of market hot as even less family homes for sale.

Any time more than one come up in the same are/estate the prices stall and reduce so the balance can be tipped with more supply.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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5 hours ago, spyguy said:

Ive given up looking at for sale volume. All meaningless.

I look at the houses sold i nthe LR data.

Still on the floor in the places I track - way less than 20% of a normal market would be. But a normal market as not existed for almost 20 years.

What does it mean? Most people over 60 are going to leave their current house in a box.

It is quite amazing when you look at houseprices.io just how low the sales prices are in comparison to what you think is selling locally.

Quite a number of chains are falling through and a high number must go SSTC and then withdrawn as they dont appear.

Edited by Fromage Frais

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21 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Sounds about right to me.

main earner 30/35 second 20/25 = 50k in riches part of my area per houshold.

50/60k x 4.7 = 280 ish + circa 100k from mum and dad (remortgage) and you can buy a family house.

Not many with mums and dads with spare wonga but enough to keep this section of market hot as even less family homes for sale.

Any time more than one come up in the same are/estate the prices stall and reduce so the balance can be tipped with more supply.

 

Your salary figures are too.

UK mean income is ~28K. 60% of the population earn less than that.

The most likely couple figures are ~35k + 15k.

AS far as deposits goes, 80% of the UK have less than 5K in saving. Id guess less than 5% of the UKPOP have 100k in cash.

 

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Where supply has suddenly increased I think it's because people have suddenly realised that maybe prices don't go up for ever and are all rushing for the exit.  This has definitely happened in parts of London (SW8?).  (I've been following the London thread since Damik started it.)

In places I've been following some have also thought they would be one of the first to get out eg Sandhurst (Berks) where there is a glut of BTL coming on (2/3 bed terraces) and I've been looking at asking prices falling from about £300K for a 2-bed which is now down to £270K for the cheapest with further to go I would think.

The tidal wave hasn't hit everywhere yet so this effect isn't so obvious everywhere.  I would expect Anglesey would be one of the last places to be hit, sorry Nome.  Before the rush for the exits there seems to be a bit of stasis where the grim reality sinks in so low volume. 

A lot of people will have a shock when they see how much the cost of moving actually is.  I've just sold a very ordinary 2-bed terrace and am downsizing to a flat (to live in not BTL) and the total for both sale and purchase seems to be around £6K.

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This is purely anecdotal ..at the beginning of the year BTL started to off load big time around my way i thought this is the start for sure the "cheap" ones flew of the shelf then the kite flyers went one buy one buy april`ish i thought WTF i never realy looked again until the other day ...all but the cheap ones 10-20% less than the others for comparable places are back on the market 

I`m guessing either rental cover has made them un mortageable for BTL or the penny has finaly dropped most relisted have small price drops but they are still way off what the cheaper ones were and theres more and more coming to the market 

To me it looks like the vendors are dictating the prices and that reflects the amount of leverage involved ..as theres no continuity in pricing IMO this could get very interesting if you know who don`t step in with a bag of magic beans 

Edit this is S Wales 
Edited by long time lurking

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Around my way (mid Dorset) there's definitely less coming onto the market, and the one's that are on the market aren't shifting.

This has definitely resulted in volumes increasing.

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Next to nothing coming on where I am, pretty dire, the only boost in figures was one agent adding about 10 SSTC in one day which must be some sort of glitch. Regardless of beds/location/condition about 75% of new houses all on at the same price... more racket than Wimbledon 

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