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House prices are on the brink of a massive collapse


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9 hours ago, wotsthat said:

I have had a good think since joining this site about the every day normal people I know who have got themselves on the property ladder over the last few years and who are under 45. There was a few that borrowed heavily from Mum and Dad and a few getting an inheritence. One was involved in a nasty car crash and gort substantial damages, another was knocked off his motorbike and walked away hardly damaged and being mostly to blame though the courts sided with him, another decent pay off and a house, a friend who had a stroke and insurance was paid out.

Over the last year due various circumstances I have been lodging with different people. 

At first I felt such an utter failure that they were roughly my age and yet they owned the house and I was the lodger.

And yet once I'd go to know them a bit better it turned out that both of them had had substantial help from family members, either inheritance or gifts in order to buy.

AND they were still renting out a room (to me) in order to cover the mortgage that was left after those substantial gifts for the deposits

It really is a mad world when a normal, working person can't buy a house in a normal way.

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I lodged last year with a 27 year old who bought her sisters' old house (2 bed semi) in 2014 aged just 25. She was only able to buy thanks to a £20,000 deposit from her share of the inheritance after her father died. She probably got it easily since at the time she was working full time...but then her hours were cut and she had to get a lodger (me).

Had no understanding of money, liked to flash the cash and was permanently in her overdraft, hadn't been in credit the whole time she had had the house.

Still liked to boast about how hard she had worked to be able to buy at her age though, as if everyone else was lazy in comparison. 

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On 7/9/2017 at 6:28 PM, nnails said:

I brought my house 5k less than the previous owner paided in 2005. 

I hope for your sake it was with ca$h, because the HPC has not started yet, you jumped in too early.

if cash its OK I can see you point, you get to keep ~50% of your wealth (if you are lucky).

If mostly debt then good luck to you, you are the bigger fool.  

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19 minutes ago, Stateless said:

If mostly debt then good luck to you, you are the bigger fool.  

Dont worry, they get to keep most of the debt too after the house is repo'd, for about 12 years IIRC.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

 

The best thing about living through and watching the 90's collapse is,m it makes you very risk adverse when it comes to buying a house.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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6 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

My wife was talking to a guy at work today. he said he paid 350K for his house in Stanford le hope (Essex) in 2013. its now worth 800K. Even allowing for some hype thats 20% growth yoy. Insane.

I can beat that. Someone a colleague knows just paid £390k for a 1-bed in Tooting! Even by today's prices she's paid over the odds! #screwed

???

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10 minutes ago, nnails said:

The simple fact is I could not wait any longer. But yes I am paying off like crazy.  But is money safe in bank?

Im hedging my bets and have moved some of my STR fund to Premium Bonds as the winnings are tax free and you can get your hands on the money quickly.

I cant see the govt nicking them unless they dont want to borrow any new money ever again.

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39 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

Im hedging my bets and have moved some of my STR fund to Premium Bonds as the winnings are tax free and you can get your hands on the money quickly.

I cant see the govt nicking them unless they dont want to borrow any new money ever again.

I have been buying things that I think are collectable such as old toys , memorabilia  and other things I think I can sell if needed be. If I was to lose my job it would suit me to little money in bank but things to sell.

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On 7/12/2017 at 9:23 PM, nnails said:

I have been buying things that I think are collectable such as old toys , memorabilia  and other things I think I can sell if needed be. If I was to lose my job it would suit me to little money in bank but things to sell.

I agree money in the bank is not as safe as it was. I am thinking "Bail in" not "Bail out" next time. I don't want to rain on your parade but the problem with this is that if/when you loose it is probably going to be that the economy in general has taken a nose dive. Things  old toys , memorabilia  don't hold value at all. If money is tight (and its getting tighter all the time ie Deflation) then people will stop spending on everything except the essentials. 

You would be better off with stocks of things that hold value in a crisis. I'd be thinking a stash of seeds or bottles no name brand cheap Vodka (long shelf life), permanent magnets & copper magnet wire - DIY Solar & wind power equipment,  even a huge pile of canned food, you can eat it (rotate your stock) or trade it in a crisis. If you loose your job at least you won't go hungry. If you are trying to sell toys & memorabilia  to buy food in a depression to other people who have no money either - then you might get a little  hungry.  

I can easily see a day when a vintage 100 pounds Vinyl LP won't be worth as much as a packet of instant Noddles.

When the HPC (the great reset) comes many things are going to shed value very fast. The cost of food will probably go up.

After the fall of Saigon, a can of beans could get up to $100 as rich Vietnamese tried to stock up their boats with food.

I am going to sell all my old LP's ASAP.  Might as well turn it into an extra 20Kg bag of rice etc (and hold a bigger stock). 

 

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On 7/12/2017 at 7:04 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Dont worry, they get to keep most of the debt too after the house is repo'd, for about 12 years IIRC.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

 

The best thing about living through and watching the 90's collapse is,m it makes you very risk adverse when it comes to buying a house.

I watched it happen, fortunately I couldn't buy, I had no income so I missed it, 1988 was still at Uni, but my friends who went straight to good jobs after school (the motivated and smart ones of my year 1966 just managed to catch the crash exactly) some clubbed together and bought just before the crash. I remember it well, If they went to the pub, they would try to make 1 pint last all night, they were that short on cash and negative 30%+ equity at least. Some times I would buy them a drink, as student with a grant and an overdraft I had stronger financial position than these new homeowners? I remember it well.

Was is sickening is that it matters so much when you buy. If you are born too early or too late. And the price of houses (a place to live) should be the one stable thing around you can build your life and family.

There should be no government incentives for anyone the wants more than one house. 

My taxes and pension money is being used (to prop up / invested in) the property market and is driving up the price of the thing I most want to buy? 

Anyway I think its coming to an end soon.

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3 minutes ago, Stateless said:

should be no government incentives for anyone the wants more than one house. 

Not far enough. If you own a second property the tax should be stupidly high, maybe an annual tax of 50% of the property's worth.

Non UK residents should also get the 50% tax.

But nothing like this will ever happen because turkeys won't vote for santa.

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1 minute ago, ExiledMatty said:

Not far enough. If you own a second property the tax should be stupidly high, maybe an annual tax of 50% of the property's worth.

Non UK residents should also get the 50% tax.

But nothing like this will ever happen because turkeys won't vote for santa.

Absolutely agree with you on that there is no way the ruling class would allow it. ( It would sort out the blight of unused empty foreign owned homes and the holiday homes that take away houses from locals very quickly). - I'd vote for that.  

Also the HRMC needs to do there job and go after all the income from these BTL properties. There are very quick send me letters about my income tax. They have already given me a projected number to pay by Jan 31st based on last years income that I have even earn't yet? and probably never will. I feel like it is the middle ages and the sheriff just told me I need to hand over all my chickens, my goat and half my potatoes. 

 

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On 12/07/2017 at 9:23 PM, nnails said:

I have been buying things that I think are collectable such as old toys , memorabilia  and other things I think I can sell if needed be. If I was to lose my job it would suit me to little money in bank but things to sell.

Part of my job is selling collectables on ebay.

Perhaps it would be better investing in more useful stuff that folks can use , tools, fixings , building materials etc.

Not sure how collectable markets holds up after it hits the fan.

What happened to the collectors market in Argentina in 2000 after the crash ? 

 

This is not investment advice 

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10 hours ago, Stateless said:

I agree money in the bank is not as safe as it was. I am thinking "Bail in" not "Bail out" next time.

Sorry to say it but our deposits are actually loans to the bank. We are no longer legal owners of that money. 

That comes from the Bank of England: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/wp529.pdf

"Depositors who deposit their money with a bank are therefore no longer the legal owners of this money, with the bank holding it in trust for them, but rather they are one of the general creditors of the bank"

Bail ins were already passed into law by Osbourne in 2013. 

 

Edited by Assume The Opposite
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8 hours ago, Stateless said:

Also the HRMC needs to do there job and go after all the income from these BTL properties. There are very quick send me letters about my income tax. They have already given me a projected number to pay by Jan 31st based on last years income that I have even earn't yet? and probably never will. I feel like it is the middle ages and the sheriff just told me I need to hand over all my chickens, my goat and half my potatoes. 

It has been exposed that the HMRC allow big shot accountants to come and  help write the tax law, then go back to wealthy clients on how to evade it. I would imagine the HM Treasury turns a blind eye to this and other schemes as the 1% are always allowed to increase their wealth at the expense of all of us. 

The rich pay no tax. The plebs do. Welcome to Britain, neo-liberal capital of the world.

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On 03/07/2017 at 9:47 AM, Mapatasy said:

Nice to see - thanks for the links.

Amazing though to see such conservative estimates making headlines.  A real zeitgeist indicator.  The sort of falls they're predicting are the kind we saw in the minor 1980s correction in house prices, not the sort that are coming....

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15 minutes ago, LondonBound said:

Top 1% pay 27% of all U.K. Income tax. 

The bottom 50% (of tax payers) pay only 10% of all U.K. Income tax. 

Who is paying for whom?

 

 

 

50% of income tax goes on pensions, paying the national debt (caused by the old f@rts) and the NHS (too many sick old f@rts?)

I pity the young.....

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17 minutes ago, LondonBound said:

Top 1% pay 27% of all U.K. Income tax. 

The bottom 50% (of tax payers) pay only 10% of all U.K. Income tax. 

Who is paying for whom?

 

 

 

That's just income tax.

Then there are the other taxes - NI, VAT and council tax. The lowest tenth of earners pay an average of 42% of their income in the form of income tax, NI, VAT and council tax.  The richest 10% only see 34.4% or their earnings go in these taxes.

Not to mention untaxed wealth, such as property,

 

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6 hours ago, Assume The Opposite said:

Sorry to say it but our deposits are actually loans to the bank. We are no longer legal owners of that money. 

That comes from the Bank of England: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/wp529.pdf

"Depositors who deposit their money with a bank are therefore no longer the legal owners of this money, with the bank holding it in trust for them, but rather they are one of the general creditors of the bank"

Bail ins were already passed into law by Osbourne in 2013. 

 

Why can I not find this quote in the document?

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  • 441 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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