Daily Mail...we are on the brink

[billybong]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Exactly what I was thinking whilst his boss was blowing both their trumpets in his intro.

+1

[Fromage Frais]

2 hours ago, interestrateripoff said:

So for a 1m house that would correct to 600k. Still unaffordable.

Guess where the house is/type will influence that.

I my neck of the woods a 150m2 house is 400k = 2.5> 3k m2 .  Whilst a 750/1 million does not really sell with those properties 300m2 in the city with nearly quarter of a acre basically lovely....I would say here in Norwich luxury houses are more negotiable and "better value" (still overpriced) than houses in the 200 > 500 range where incomers from London want a family house after selling up there.

Even in the 90s such houses where 250/300k circa so big house + big bills = need a big salary

In London I cannot tell which shit box is 350k or 2 million so I find it entirely logical and necessary that the nine elms flats for example drop 60/70% as thats what the supply+ potential occupants need to pay to own.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Fromage Frais

[billybong]

Isn't the mail just regurgitating what was being said by Remainers before the referendum.  Then Carney dropped the rate and did some QE (without any side effects ).

To be fair I don't believe a word any of them have to say.  So many false dawns with props and bailouts for the benefit of the few and the impoverishment of the many that these days I'll only believe in the house price collapse when I see it.  In the meantime it would do no harm if there was a massive clear out of MPs from Parliament - and if Carney was sacked as well along with a few others.

Edited July 2, 2017 by billybong

[Fromage Frais]

56 minutes ago, billybong said:

Even the Professor couldn't afford to buy and had to rent a tiny flat.

Maybe Cameron or Osborne or some other MP or one of their many banking cronies was the landlord?

"We are all affected by this housing crisis" - no that's untrue or at least in the way he seems to mean it.  Some, including many many politicians have done very very well out of it and often using fraudulent methods.

Shame that the charts aren't visible in the video.

A nice video but i urge the professor to visit an empty Chinese city or Tunisia where you can build any shit you like for a backhander + 17% of homes are empty and housing is more expensive proportionally than here near jobs.

If you pump unlimited dirty money into a place and then throw cheap money at locals to compete with it = high prices.

You always get this rot in London as it feels packed in Norwich houses where falling in 2011 most high wage jobs are in the public sector/NHS 300k (2011) > 500K (2016) with the only thing changing ...... HTB and FLS scheme.

The supply theory will be tested raise those interest rates and prices will hold.......but my pennies worth is on big drops if we get decent rises.

This is a once in a generation bubble event since the end of the 90s.

China sucking up global manufacturing capacity > rolling cash into real estate in UK/others > rates dropping as this money comes in > locals leveraging up at same time.

Its no coincidence the worlds property market heads down as Chinese money either gets spent or restricted. 
 

Edited July 2, 2017 by Fromage Frais

[ingermany]

11 minutes ago, billybong said:

Isn't the mail just regurgitating what was being said by Remainers before the referendum.  Then Carney dropped the rate and did some QE (without any side effects ).

To be fair I don't believe a word any of them have to say.  So many false dawns with props and bailouts for the benefit of the few and the impoverishment of the many that these days I'll only believe in the house price collapse when I see it.  In the meantime it would do no harm if there was a massive clear out of MPs from Parliament - and if Carney was sacked as well along with a few others.

I think the Estate Agent reports are a big influence as well. 77% of sales are now reduced from asking price. Where I am agents are quick to point out that prices are negotiable and are openly embarassed at asking prices.  Lots of houses have no upward chain and have been for sale for over 6 months.  More and more negative sentiment is mounting. There is demand, but not at the asking prices, and even according to Rightmove, asking prices are falling.  Economic fundamentals have never supported the post 2011 boom. All of that came from government intervention. Now government seems resigned to a policy of reversing that stimulus. I wonder if the banks can sustain a 40% devaluation in real estate assets at the same time as a flood of bad debt appears on the horizon. Even if one large lender collapses, the whole banking system will go into meltdown. I can't see any alternative to more nationalisation of banking, more printing, and more props to the market.....just to let it down gently. 

[Fromage Frais]

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-exchange-reserves

 

The above graph is the apparent state of Chinas foreign currency reserves...it would be interesting to see the correlation with the state of the London housing market.

You can see why they had to act as the money was rolling out 

[A third of everything]

1 minute ago, ingermany said:

I think the Estate Agent reports are a big influence as well. 77% of sales are now reduced from asking price. Where I am agents are quick to point out that prices are negotiable and are openly embarassed at asking prices.  Lots of houses have no upward chain and have been for sale for over 6 months.  More and more negative sentiment is mounting. 

Saw a new tag line on RM today on a property listed as OIEO £... The box that usually says "premium listing" or "no chain" said "offers invited".  Really glad they pointed that out....!

[Lord D'arcy Pew]

5 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-exchange-reserves

 

The above graph is the apparent state of Chinas foreign currency reserves...it would be interesting to see the correlation with the state of the London housing market.

You can see why they had to act as the money was rolling out 

All the Chinese that invested in overseas property will soon be regarded as enemies of the state. They will get a bullet, and the PRC will take back any assets for the glorious Motherland.  China will shut its borders and the west will run out of manufactured goods very quickly. 

[Fromage Frais]

13 minutes ago, Lord D'arcy Pew said:

All the Chinese that invested in overseas property will soon be regarded as enemies of the state. They will get a bullet, and the PRC will take back any assets for the glorious Motherland.  China will shut its borders and the west will run out of manufactured goods very quickly. 

I would say good luck taking back houses.

I simply do not understand how this was all allowed to happen.

Just look at the rules for us if we go to China....how about having reciprocal rules?

https://www.internations.org/china-expats/guide/17849-housing-accommodation/buying-property-in-china-17852

The Requirements

After having lived in China for a while you might find that it is time to settle down in your own home. Buying property in China, as opposed to paying rent, may seem like a logical solution for expats who are in it for the long haul. However, it is important to keep in mind that buying your own house or apartment comes with a lot of requirements and restrictions.

For instance, you have to provide proof that you have lived in China for more than 12 months, in order to be permitted to purchase a home. This time frame also varies depending on which municipality you choose to live in. In Shanghai, for instance, you must submit copies of your Chinese tax receipts to provide proof of residence for at least 12 out of the past 24 months. Once you have bought a house or an apartment, you are required to live in it. Buying property in China as an investment and renting it out is not permitted. Please remember that you can only own one home in China.

Make sure to talk to your attorney and/or real estate agent about all the rules you have to abide by and the specific restrictions you need to take into account before buying property in China.

 

[spyguy]

33 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

I would say good luck taking back houses.

I simply do not understand how this was all allowed to happen.

Just look at the rules for us if we go to China....how about having reciprocal rules?

https://www.internations.org/china-expats/guide/17849-housing-accommodation/buying-property-in-china-17852

The Requirements

After having lived in China for a while you might find that it is time to settle down in your own home. Buying property in China, as opposed to paying rent, may seem like a logical solution for expats who are in it for the long haul. However, it is important to keep in mind that buying your own house or apartment comes with a lot of requirements and restrictions.

For instance, you have to provide proof that you have lived in China for more than 12 months, in order to be permitted to purchase a home. This time frame also varies depending on which municipality you choose to live in. In Shanghai, for instance, you must submit copies of your Chinese tax receipts to provide proof of residence for at least 12 out of the past 24 months. Once you have bought a house or an apartment, you are required to live in it. Buying property in China as an investment and renting it out is not permitted. Please remember that you can only own one home in China.

Make sure to talk to your attorney and/or real estate agent about all the rules you have to abide by and the specific restrictions you need to take into account before buying property in China.

 

Oh we should let chinese buy uk property. Just tax them 10% of the purchase price. Yearly.

[RentingForever]

5 hours ago, durhamborn said:

In the bubble areas we will get 40%+ in the deflationary crash,then another 30%+ when put against inflation in the following reflation cycle i think.

In sterling terms even bigger i expect if sterling goes to £/90c in the crash.This will create the chance for people to secure their and their grandchildrens futures by buying inflation cycle assets at rock bottom prices.For the ones driving around in leased 4 x 4s with huge mortgages with zero savings and flaky income it will destroy them.Long rates are falling whatever the media say and that is because the CBs (Fed mostly) are tightening us into a huge recession.Iv seen a lot of cycles,but i think this one is going to provide the biggest crash.

For the hard of thinking (like me) - what's an inflation cycle asset?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 hours ago, assetrichcashpoor said:

Round my way a 40% drop would bring houses down to 2010 levels which is when I bought. I was a full on HPCer by then and thought houses were massively overpriced then. IMO we'd need an 80% drop for things to get back to normal. 

40% drop...10% in northern Ireland...80%in London

[durhamborn]

1 hour ago, RentingForever said:

For the hard of thinking (like me) - what's an inflation cycle asset?

After the crash not now,gold,gold mining companies,silver (maybe the biggest winner of all so the fund SIL),copper miners (COPX),other miners (Anglo American,BHP etc),oil,maybe even Uranium (URA) and natural gas (FCG).Industrial companies (BAE,Rolls Royce Cummins etc).Companies and assets that produce inputs.They will be the winners (and probably some of the biggest fallers in the crash first).Avoid companies that buy inputs like retailers etc.The next cycle looks like an industrial one rather than a consumer one.It wont be selling cars,it will be building the roads to put them on etc.Each reflation cycle in history has followed this path,i dont think the next one will be any different.Its never ever different.People have been blindsided simply because we have missed out a whole business cycle.The debt is so large now there are only two ways out,default and inflation.We get the defaults first i think,and the printing to come,not QE,but currency straight to government will fire the cycle.People see stagflation instead,Japan,but i dont.This was a disinflation cycle that started in the early 80s.Nothing more.It got extreme simply because they saved the banks and stopped a business cycle clean out.The market will just clean two cycles worth at once,and that will force the printing that brings in the reflation.The people on the Daily Mail thread up to their eyes in leverage are all saying its different this time due to.....demand,,,,immigration,,,low rates,,,,,tulips,,,,south sea,,,,,tractor demand on finance (what really caused the Great Depression) anything.It is slightly different.A double the length cycle is getting swept away,including most of them.All just my opinion.

[Tapori]

11 hours ago, I'm out said:

What I think is going on here is that Conservative Central Office (who decide what gets printed in the Daily Mail) are trying to make the connection between Brexit and a HPC. This has two advantages for them: 

1) Daily Mail readers, who are overwhelmingly Brexiteers, might switch to Remain. This would help the government to back track from Brexit, which they know is going to be disastrous.

2) If the HPC still happens, they can blame it on Brexit rather than on the policies they have pursued since 2010 to deliberately inflate prices still further.

In the best possible outcome Brexit could be cancelled and house prices crash.  Out of the ashes of this scenario, we could start to rebuild a great country.

Also why in part, May called the GE: To allow prices and the economy to correct before building up to a GE in 2022. As an old Labour lad, I think Labour should be aware of this; It's one thing to come to power on a left-ticket which is hard-enough anyway, and it's another to have to face the unfortunate state of being in charge when it all goes down and being blamed for it.

[thisisthisitmaybe]

46 minutes ago, Tapori said:

Also why in part, May called the GE: To allow prices and the economy to correct before building up to a GE in 2022. As an old Labour lad, I think Labour should be aware of this; It's one thing to come to power on a left-ticket which is hard-enough anyway, and it's another to have to face the unfortunate state of being in charge when it all goes down and being blamed for it.

I think there was only one reason May called a GE, and that was to increase her majority in the lead-up to Brexit negotiations. 

The Daily Mail article is just clickbait. They will have a completely opposite article on the site next week - "UK house prices SURGE in run-up to Brexit" kind of thing. 

[Sancho Panza]

58 minutes ago, Tapori said:

Also why in part, May called the GE: To allow prices and the economy to correct before building up to a GE in 2022. As an old Labour lad, I think Labour should be aware of this; It's one thing to come to power on a left-ticket which is hard-enough anyway, and it's another to have to face the unfortunate state of being in charge when it all goes down and being blamed for it.

Home ownership levels are reaching multi decade lows.Aside from us following the fed,I think the is the only other reason why all of a sudden there's a rush on to get prices down again on the part of the Tories.It's seems an accepted fact now that home owners are disproportionately represented amongst the Tory ranks.

The 1% will play their games but the last thing they want to be is on the receiving end from the 99%.They've tried all the alternatives to increase home ownership rates 1)allowing wages to catch up with prices-not worked,2) HTB 1+2-not worked 3) cheap loans-QE/low base rates/FLS-not worked.They're now on option 4 which is smashing BTLers and letting prices moderate.

[Venger]

46 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

The Daily Mail article is just clickbait. They will have a completely opposite article on the site next week - "UK house prices SURGE in run-up to Brexit" kind of thing. 

Exactly.

And all the 'What it is worth' owners and BTLers love same articles that dare poke risk to their HPI+++ 'hard-work' investment mad-gainz, to get advertising hits.

Gives them opportunity to explain their wisdom that 'demand will always mean HPI' and too few houses etc.

Got one emotion until it happens (if ever) to MSM Daily Mail etc on all House Price Forecasts.

 

Until we ever see some real HPC action.  

Year after year DM gives a HPC tease article, but then whack more HPI++++++, and often explained by 'buyers being duped into it' back here. :rolleyes:... no buyers being duped at these prices.

[Si1]

9 minutes ago, Venger said:

Exactly.

And all the 'What it is worth' owners and BTLers love same articles that dare poke risk to their HPI+++ 'hard-work' investment mad-gainz, to get advertising hits.

Gives them opportunity to explain their wisdom that 'demand will always mean HPI' and too few houses etc.

Got one emotion until it happens (if ever) to MSM Daily Mail etc on all House Price Forecasts.

 

Until we ever see some real HPC action.  

Year after year DM gives a HPC tease article, but then whack more HPI++++++, and often explained by 'buyers being duped into it' back here. :rolleyes:... no buyers being duped at these prices.

Is Jeremy Corbyn a HPCer then?

[Venger]

6 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Is Jeremy Corbyn a HPCer then?

Hah, no it's not the White Linen Suit Messiah. 

Mike E...-long-name guy from Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul.

Ex/retired-cop (started out honest, and remained honest-practical/decent, but with a stomach for allowing bad to come to bad), fixer.. and been on the rough end of some life experience.

 

[Venger]

And it was only last week where David Miles came out with more forever HPI, which at least one HPCer claiming he was reluctantly telling his view about HPI+++

On 6/28/2017 at 11:02 PM, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

How about this?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/28/house-prices-stay-high-forever-predicts-ex-bank-england-guru/

David Miles predicts house prices to stay high for ever!

 

Quote

House prices set to rise for the next 50 years and outstrip incomes even further, warns ex-Bank of England economist
By Sarah Davidson For Thisismoney.co.uk
PUBLISHED: 09:06, 4 February 2017 | UPDATED: 09:06, 4 February 2017

UK house prices are set to soar over the next 50 years while the average income won't keep pace, putting home ownership out of reach of millions.

Professor David Miles, a former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, says the shortage of housing and a restriction on the availability of land in the UK will mean house prices keep spiralling upwards for decades to come.

Speaking at an event in Westminster this week, Miles revealed analysis showing that 'extraordinary' house price inflation over the past 30 years was likely to continue for the next 50 years.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-4188266/House-prices-set-rise-50-years.html

He's been calling HPI+ Forever since at least 2012, while HPCers been singing innocence about buyers duped into buying, and fretting about a future HPC... how much rent you paid out in total? 

Market.  

If I focus on what I do know as fact, nearly all the for sale boards around here SoldSTC.... everything upto £800K not on market long.  New peaks.  BTLers have double down.  Still paying rent to an elderly multi-property millionaire loads-of-houses elderly couple, who have lived life of luxury for decades on back of rent-roll and HPI++++++.

So no 'Now they finally will see' from me (HPC) until HPC, and opportunities it may bring for younger renter-saver workers.  We're up against vested interests, and we've seen all the QE magic for HPI protection/more HPI.

[Scramz]

As someone who exchanged today on a house in the SE using HTB, I would love a 40% crash now. Pay back HTB at the bottom wiping off 30k+ and wait for it to come back, bound to at some point with this government. 

[wish I could afford one]

4 minutes ago, Scramz said:

As someone who exchanged today on a house in the SE using HTB, I would love a 40% crash now. Pay back HTB at the bottom wiping off 30k+ and wait for it to come back, bound to at some point with this government. 

So you're expecting me to pay for your folly?

[Scramz]

3 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

So you're expecting me to pay for your folly?

I have paid towards that myself. If the gov keep the plates spinning and push them higher then I will be paying more into the system than what I am signed up to, swings and round abouts. It's a risk I am willing to take rather than wasting it on rent all the time.

[Scramz]

Just to add, I hope it does crash so more people can have access to homes. I just got fed up with waiting and paying someone else's mortgage. 

[macca13]

14 hours ago, mathschoc said:

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/30/news/economy/uk-recession-brexit/index.html

The country has been in a downward spiral long before the B word was used.. The pain of mass immigration (low paid, low skilled, low tax, high benefits jobs) will come to fruition as our Housing benefits breach £25 billion per year. once unemployment rises they will be like lead boots in a swimming pool.. Doing the jobs that Brits used to do, but now we don't want to do (reads cant afford to do unless we sleep in HMO's or have massive benefits top ups) meanwhile Terrorism, Female genital mutilation, honor killings, forced arranged marriages and gun and knife crime become as British as strawberries and cream as we descend into a third world country.. Mass riots will assume.. All blamed on Brexit.. nothing to do with greed or immigration.. just inbreed Brits voting for a return to the past when everyone just got along..

Edited July 2, 2017 by macca13