Daily Mail...we are on the brink

[Scramz]

12 hours ago, longgone said:

have you checked the small print. ??

Yes. The amount I would lose renting over the next 5 years alone is worth the risk. I am looking to stay there for the long term so movement in pricing doesn't apply or concern me too much. 

[winkie]

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Scramz said:

Yes. The amount I would lose renting over the next 5 years alone is worth the risk. I am looking to stay there for the long term so movement in pricing doesn't apply or concern me too much. 

Sue your primary school...they have left u with no ability in pre school arithmetic, plus they've not set u enough homework to stop u internet trolling

[blackhole]

1 hour ago, Scramz said:

Yes. The amount I would lose renting over the next 5 years alone is worth the risk. I am looking to stay there for the long term so movement in pricing doesn't apply or concern me too much. 

SVR at a normal rate due to being in negative equity could well be a concern.  But its your money, your life, and your decisions.  Whatever lets you sleep at night.

[Scramz]

11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Sue your primary school...they have left u with no ability in pre school arithmetic, plus they've not set u enough homework to stop u internet trolling

Rented for the last 10 years, costing £1k+ a month. When a mortgage is cheaper and you have something to show for it at the end, providing you want it to stay and live rather than an investment to move on, it's a no brainier even at these insane prices over renting. 

11 hours ago, blackhole said:

SVR at a normal rate due to being in negative equity could well be a concern.  But its your money, your life, and your decisions.  Whatever lets you sleep at night.

Not really, I don't plan to move. I purchased with more bedrooms than required so there shouldn't be any need to upsize. Purchased to live in, not as an I investment and cheaper to service.

[advicewelcome]

On 2017-7-1 at 11:28 PM, ingermany said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Britain-brink-housing-price-collapse.html

 

The usual editor must be off sick. This is the most extreme HPC warning I have ever seen in main stream press. Or in the Daily Mail for that matter. Says price collapse of 40% is imminent.  That is going to kill buyer confidence.  And probably a few estate agents. 

Thought I would share some feedback direct from the Professor in that article. He is clear that he did not state a %. The article was picked up and repeated by other media outlets...

 

"You are right I never said 40%! I said a sharp correction and would certainly not put a figure on it -  only a very wide range. 40% strikes me as being very unlikely and right at the very top – more than 2 standard deviations out. A significant reason for the expectation of a fall is the uncertainty over Brexit and by definition uncertainty is not predictable.
Paul

Latest books: 
Paul Cheshire and Christian Hilber (2017) The Economics of Land Markets and their Regulation, Edward Elgar. http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/the-economics-of-land-markets-and-their-regulation
Paul Cheshire, Max Nathan and Henry Overman (2014) Urban Economics and Urban Policy: Challenging Conventional Policy Wisdom, Edward Elgar.
http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/bookentry_main.lasso?id=15105&breadcrumlink=&breadcrum=&sub_values="

...

 

[MARTINX9]

On 2 July 2017 at 11:46 PM, macca13 said:

The country has been in a downward spiral long before the B word was used.. The pain of mass immigration (low paid, low skilled, low tax, high benefits jobs) will come to fruition as our Housing benefits breach £25 billion per year. once unemployment rises they will be like lead boots in a swimming pool.. Doing the jobs that Brits used to do, but now we don't want to do (reads cant afford to do unless we sleep in HMO's or have massive benefits top ups) meanwhile Terrorism, Female genital mutilation, honor killings, forced arranged marriages and gun and knife crime become as British as strawberries and cream as we descend into a third world country.. Mass riots will assume.. All blamed on Brexit.. nothing to do with greed or immigration.. just inbreed Brits voting for a return to the past when everyone just got along..

Don't forget huge rise in acid attacks up 75 per cent last year in London to nearly 500 cases - of which more than one third were in one borough Newham. Yet when a white bloke does an acid attack last week - it's reported on the news as a hate crime.  

Whar exactly were the 454 acid attacks cases last year - not hateful? The pain and disfigurement for life is horrific - and it's something we never used to see at at all.

It's very disconcerting to think it could happen to you just by wandering around in Stratford or East Ham?

[Lavalas]

Plus house prices really are quite high, huh.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 hours ago, advicewelcome said:

Thought I would share some feedback direct from the Professor in that article. He is clear that he did not state a %. The article was picked up and repeated by other media outlets...

 

"You are right I never said 40%! I said a sharp correction and would certainly not put a figure on it -  only a very wide range. 40% strikes me as being very unlikely and right at the very top – more than 2 standard deviations out. A significant reason for the expectation of a fall is the uncertainty over Brexit and by definition uncertainty is not predictable.
Paul

Latest books: 
Paul Cheshire and Christian Hilber (2017) The Economics of Land Markets and their Regulation, Edward Elgar. http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/the-economics-of-land-markets-and-their-regulation
Paul Cheshire, Max Nathan and Henry Overman (2014) Urban Economics and Urban Policy: Challenging Conventional Policy Wisdom, Edward Elgar.
http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/bookentry_main.lasso?id=15105&breadcrumlink=&breadcrum=&sub_values="

...

 

40% is the minimum needed, not the maximum

 

You are the professor And I claim my free degree.

 

 

Edited July 4, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Digsby]

11 hours ago, Scramz said:

Not really, I don't plan to move. I purchased with more bedrooms than required so there shouldn't be any need to upsize. Purchased to live in, not as an I investment and cheaper to service.

blackhole is talking about re-mortgaging, not selling.

[ThoughtCriminal]

6 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Don't forget huge rise in acid attacks up 75 per cent last year in London to nearly 500 cases - of which more than one third were in one borough Newham. Yet when a white bloke does an acid attack last week - it's reported on the news as a hate crime.  

Whar exactly were the 454 acid attacks cases last year - not hateful? The pain and disfigurement for life is horrific - and it's something we never used to see at at all.

It's very disconcerting to think it could happen to you just by wandering around in Stratford or East Ham?

This is merely the benefits of vibrant diversity.

 

I'll probably have my account restricted for sarcasm now.

[Greg Bowman]

On 03/07/2017 at 9:23 AM, Lavalas said:

I'm kinda just interested in house prices and the economy. Maybe a discussion on genital mutilation is for another thread?

?

[Greg Bowman]

On 03/07/2017 at 11:33 AM, Funn3r said:

I agree with Lavalas that this forum is for discussion of house prices and not unrelated issues, serious though they may be. 

The forum has a core of house price discussions but in an economic sense most political, societal and business issues have an impact hence their discussion 

otherwise the threads would be quite short - houses keep going up when is it going to stop ? 

[Scramz]

12 hours ago, Digsby said:

blackhole is talking about re-mortgaging, not selling.

Yes, I will have enough in the property to cover a decent drop 

[thedebtisreal]

So... you've been renting for a decade and managed to buy a place bigger than you need, with a large deposit and a mortgage (I assume repayment) at a cheaper rate than your rent. Why didn't you buy earlier when things were cheaper? Did the area not rise much? Did you come into money suddenly?

[Social Justice League]

House Prices need to fall by at least 60%, imo.

There will be blood on the streets when it happens though, as the penny drops for all those who were fooled by the "Getting On The Ladder" brigade.

[Social Justice League]

6 minutes ago, willie said:

House prices fell 50% in Northern Ireland where there was a bubble situation and there was no blood in the streets.  FTBs just stayed out the market until all the drops happened then they didn't end up in negative equity.

 

If and when prices fall 60% in mainland UK, that will put just about everybody who bought since 2006 in negative equity.

I think there could be social unrest as the "property owning" public realise that they have bankrupted themselves forever.

[janch]

On 05/07/2017 at 4:14 PM, Social Justice League said:

If and when prices fall 60% in mainland UK, that will put just about everybody who bought since 2006 in negative equity.

I think there could be social unrest as the "property owning" public realise that they have bankrupted themselves forever.

Many will not be able to move at all when this happens and will be prisoners for years.  Even if they can afford their current mortgage payments and think they might want to move "up the ladder" they will be hit with very high transaction costs (min is around £6K) plus have to take a hit on the sale price of the one they're selling.

[Scramz]

On 04/07/2017 at 9:32 PM, Digsby said:

blackhole is talking about re-mortgaging, not selling.

I am fully aware of that. HTB's 20% and the money you also put in gives you a large buffer for falls. In my case the mortgage is 55% of the houses value. Would need an unrealistic fall to really worry me. 

[SOLZHENITSYN]

 

1 hour ago, Scramz said:

I am fully aware of that. HTB's 20% and the money you also put in gives you a large buffer for falls. In my case the mortgage is 55% of the houses value. Would need an unrealistic fall to really worry me. 

The 20-40% HTB portion shouldn't be giving anyone any comfort. This is not the owners equity. It is simply another category of debt between you and government. It is there to provide comfort for the lender, not the borrower.

[Thorn]

On 7/5/2017 at 4:14 PM, Social Justice League said:

If and when prices fall 60% in mainland UK, that will put just about everybody who bought since 2006 in negative equity.

I think there could be social unrest as the "property owning" public realise that they have bankrupted themselves forever.

When it happened in Dublin and Belfast after the GFC, there was surprising little social unrest or old-school so street protest. Instead I heard of a lot of suicides and there has been a lot of shame and silence. 

[thisisthisitmaybe]

On 7/5/2017 at 4:04 PM, willie said:

17 minutes ago, Thorn said:

When it happened in Dublin and Belfast after the GFC, there was surprising little social unrest or old-school so street protest. Instead I heard of a lot of suicides and there has been a lot of shame and silence. 

An Irish acquaintance of mine goes back home fairly regularly to attend funerals of extended family and friends, a number have been suicides. 

The Irish also have a long tradition of emigrating when the economy implodes. This isn't the case in England. I think a HPC of 50 percent over here would precipitate major social unrest. 

[Thorn]

4 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

 

Fair point

[TheCountOfNowhere]

On 05/07/2017 at 4:14 PM, Social Justice League said:

If and when prices fall 60% in mainland UK, that will put just about everybody who bought since 2006 in negative equity.

I think there could be social unrest as the "property owning" public realise that they have bankrupted themselves forever.

Did you factor in 10 years of mortgage repayments in that made up fact?

 

[goldbug9999]

On 7/5/2017 at 4:14 PM, Social Justice League said:

If and when prices fall 60% in mainland UK, that will put just about everybody who bought since 2006 in negative equity.