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Daily Mail...we are on the brink

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Britain-brink-housing-price-collapse.html

 

The usual editor must be off sick. This is the most extreme HPC warning I have ever seen in main stream press. Or in the Daily Mail for that matter. Says price collapse of 40% is imminent.  That is going to kill buyer confidence.  And probably a few estate agents. 

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My mother-in-law has disagreed with all the honest doom-and/gloom realism I've had to use to counteract the HPI propaganda in the MSM this last few years. And she loves the DM. And it's now saying this? Here we go. ?

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6 hours ago, Snafu said:

The weekend team....

 

 

I would have thought so. Especially as they have the heading "house prices fall 3 months in a row" above a chart that shows the exact opposite. 

 

Still that's two very bearish articles out this weekend. Add in increased talk of interest rate rises, and hopefully the " prices only go up" mantra will be seen for what it is. 

Could we see an early 90s style crash begin this year?

 

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1 minute ago, funinhounslow said:

I would have thought so. Especially as they have the heading "house prices fall 3 months in a row" above a chart that shows the exact opposite. 

 

Still that's two very bearish articles out this weekend. Add in increased talk of interest rate rises, and hopefully the " prices only go up" mantra will be seen for what it is. 

Could we see an early 90s style crash begin this year?

 

An ineffective Tory government barely in power headed by a rudderless mannequin with a charisma bypass marred by infighting and fear? 

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6 hours ago, lombardo said:

Youtube video of LSE lecture blaming restricted supply as the main cause of the crisis.

Its a bit of an ask for the LSE to support any other view after all they only propose neo-classical economic views. I notice that he highlights a whole raft of countries where supply wasn't constrained and yet they also suffer excessive HPI in two slides.

Cheap credit is the main cause of the crisis, his slides confirm this though he choses ignore this as a neo-classical economics. This lecture is yet again a deliberate attempt to hide their failed economic view.

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They can run, but they cannot hide.. BoE tightened mortgage application lending to assess affordability at 5% (SVR). A couple of rate hikes, in a stalled market leads to one thing, negative sentiments ?

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Round my way a 40% drop would bring houses down to 2010 levels which is when I bought. I was a full on HPCer by then and thought houses were massively overpriced then. IMO we'd need an 80% drop for things to get back to normal. 

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5 minutes ago, assetrichcashpoor said:

Round my way a 40% drop would bring houses down to 2010 levels which is when I bought. I was a full on HPCer by then and thought houses were massively overpriced then. IMO we'd need an 80% drop for things to get back to normal. 

The average can hide an enormous amount of variation. Plus, I guess you're not adjusting for inflation...???

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I would say that most home owners and buyers would welcome a fall in house prices, losing equity, something you never had and or having to stay owning and repaying for a place longer, bit like paying rent, rent thousands already do, if need to more rent to rent, rent like thousands already do......It is not the people that fear falling prices it is the lenders and those who own multiple places they can't pay for......;)

Edited by winkie

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12 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The average can hide an enormous amount of variation. Plus, I guess you're not adjusting for inflation...???

Taking the average can smooth out extremes but I think is a good benchmark.

I think the most relevant measure of inflation would be wage inflation. I don't have the exact figures to hand but I believe this is still lagging behind CPI, RPI and way behind pure house price inflation. 

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What I think is going on here is that Conservative Central Office (who decide what gets printed in the Daily Mail) are trying to make the connection between Brexit and a HPC. This has two advantages for them: 

1) Daily Mail readers, who are overwhelmingly Brexiteers, might switch to Remain. This would help the government to back track from Brexit, which they know is going to be disastrous.

2) If the HPC still happens, they can blame it on Brexit rather than on the policies they have pursued since 2010 to deliberately inflate prices still further.

In the best possible outcome Brexit could be cancelled and house prices crash.  Out of the ashes of this scenario, we could start to rebuild a great country.

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26 minutes ago, assetrichcashpoor said:

Taking the average can smooth out extremes but I think is a good benchmark.

I think the most relevant measure of inflation would be wage inflation. I don't have the exact figures to hand but I believe this is still lagging behind CPI, RPI and way behind pure house price inflation. 

It would be great if someone could find a graph to show average male full time earnings from 2000 to 2016, I think its gone from circa 19K in 2000 to 27K in 2016, barely kept up with inflation forget HPI. By that measure one realises at some point something has to give

 

As others have pointed out even a 40% drop doesn't do it, hell I thought prices were nuts in 2003, nevermind 2010, and 2017 is just insane

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8 hours ago, Snafu said:

The weekend team....

 

 

It'll be from their advertisers in the regional titles of the Daily Mail Group.

They did used to have a much stronger association and we're an investor no owned findaproperty  , globatrix, and primelocation. I think they all got merged into Zoopla. I am not sure if DMGT are still investors in Zoopla now owned by another company. 

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