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Sentiment - "Estate Agents can't believe it" ...quote

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I've mentioned once or twice about a guy in the office selling up in Northampton. This is more than anecdotal, its sentiment, and if its happening here it must be starting to happen everywhere.

He has a 4 bed family home for sale due to a total relocation to another country. His house is top condition by his description, and he hasn't shied away from spending money on various bits and pieces to keep it top of the pile - I'll take his word for it.

To cut a long one short houses in his area, like his, were flying off the shelves up to about March I think. Now nothing is selling apparently. I know he has had endless viewings but only heavily discounted offers (you can guess what he refers to them as). When listening to his recount I have to bite my lip, any suggestion of the economics of the whole mess are a wasted conversation.

The bottom line now is a sorry state of affairs, but a very interesting situation, one I haven't yet seen referred to on here. Basically no normal offers, virtually no customers interested in buying anything. He said the Estate agents can't believe it, his words were "the bottom has just fallen out of the market", and I gather this is what the estate agents told him.

Not a single positive, not a sniff of deluded round the corner optimism, no magic wand suggestions coming along to fix it.

I've never heard of anyone, especially from estate agent conversations, saying the bottom has fallen out of the market. So is this local to Northampton? Is this general sentiment and starting to spread?

Issues explaining why that he gave: uncertainty over the future of government and the same over Brexit. I was hoping he'd point out record debt levels but that would be asking too much.

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And here's another interesting piece of sentiment. I had dinner with someone who wants me to set up his UK operation, if it happens it will be big. His words were "perfect timing, we'll be ramping up just as everyone else is slowing down". Interesting how there's this wiff of pessimism in the air, it must be affecting sentiment. I thought interest rates would bring the market down, now I'm beginning to think sentiment will get there first.

 

Edited by wsn03

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Stuff is always flying off the books until it comes to your house.

He can check the transaction figures by looking at houseprices.io.

 

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Excellent news :)

Sounds like the agent is getting desperate for cash flow and softening the seller up for a "downward management of price expectation". 

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Relative of mine £450,000+ 200m2 bedroom lovely house.

Dozens of viewings>  4 sales chains and fall throughs and they cannot be arsed anymore.

The middle seems strong but the top (London) and the bottom (btl taxes) have left it floating.

They have decided to put it in a auction before the end of the summer with a low start circa 100 grand less and get it shifted and sold.  Assuming people have been offering 400k + with a mortgage + Chain it will be interesting to see how it goes.

If it does not sell at this level they will at least know the true cash price/interest.

I guess that is the difference when you have significant wealth as opposed to house is my pension line.  When you want to move you life on that nice big house becomes a pain in the ****.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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And yet we get this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/29/mortgage-market-stabilises-house-prices-slowdown-comes-end/

Who the hell is taking out these mortgages?

"By value total mortgage debt rose by £3.5bn, the fastest pace in more than a year.

As a result mortgage lending grew by 2.9pc on the year, accelerating a touch from the levels seen in March and April."

Im doubting these articles more and more of late - their accuracy is questionable and spin is getting more elaborate.

I really dont get this sentence, for example:

"More than half of those loans went to people purchasing homes."

Eh? Please explain what the other half was spent on? Remortgaging?

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

And yet we get this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/29/mortgage-market-stabilises-house-prices-slowdown-comes-end/

Who the hell is taking out these mortgages?

"By value total mortgage debt rose by £3.5bn, the fastest pace in more than a year.

As a result mortgage lending grew by 2.9pc on the year, accelerating a touch from the levels seen in March and April."

Im doubting these articles more and more of late - their accuracy is questionable and spin is getting more elaborate.

I really dont get this sentence, for example:

"More than half of those loans went to people purchasing homes."

Eh? Please explain what the other half was spent on? Remortgaging?

 

 

 

I think most people are re-mortgaging - cheapest way to borrow money.

Also you have to consider who spends the most on newspaper advertising - the property people. The spin will be relentless for a long time to come.

Agree with an earlier comment, estate agents now need to start softening vendors up for lower prices - less commission is better than no commission.

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5 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

And yet we get this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/29/mortgage-market-stabilises-house-prices-slowdown-comes-end/

Who the hell is taking out these mortgages?

"By value total mortgage debt rose by £3.5bn, the fastest pace in more than a year.

As a result mortgage lending grew by 2.9pc on the year, accelerating a touch from the levels seen in March and April."

Im doubting these articles more and more of late - their accuracy is questionable and spin is getting more elaborate.

I really dont get this sentence, for example:

"More than half of those loans went to people purchasing homes."

Eh? Please explain what the other half was spent on? Remortgaging?

 

 

 

Could be FTB's who'd otherwise been holding off piling on the bandwagon at the first sign of a fall in prices..

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Northampton's a real basket case.  The council are in debt, huge Eastern European population, low wages, high house prices, clapped-out town centre where the only changes you see are negative ones (pound shops, "sell your gold" shops, charity shops)....and a strong feeling that the estate agents there don't know the threats upon them.  Bridge St is literally 80% estate agents.  I've no idea where it will all end, but the whole set-up is anti-aspirational - if you want to live in that town, you need your head read. 

I know it's all negative, but it used to be a thriving little town.  All that needs to happen to get back to that is that house prices need to halve (at least).  The only problem is : that's not going to happen.  So it will muddle along in its zombie state.

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1 minute ago, Mine the wheatfield said:

Is it a timing issue,  where the stats. lag reality?

I saw the Telegraph today, it is becoming even more a comic day by day.  I saw a great graph of its death-spiral circulation figures.  Can't be long before it is a niche publication delivered in plain packaging.

Nothing against them personally, they cater for a certain demographic good for them....but the last time I bought it have to admit was for the free bottle of water it came with....two for the price of one, have to say the recipes are good.;)

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50 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

Excellent news :)

Sounds like the agent is getting desperate for cash flow and softening the seller up for a "downward management of price expectation". 

You can't expect the bloke to just give it away

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14 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

You can't expect the bloke to just give it away

I read it sometimes when flying BA. Free copies in the lounge. Wouldn't pay for it.

Also noticed that Heathrow and Gatwick now give away free copies of the Wall St Journal and the Times/Sun and Mirror when you are heading to the departure gates. WH Smith must despair.....  ;)

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40 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

Please explain what the other half was spent on? Remortgaging

Many people find their existing mortgage term coming to an end and have to scrabble around looking for another (assuming they're not too old)

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In the current market, less desirable or over-priced properties simply will not sell, and that's a good thing.

During the mania a few months/years ago, any terrible property was snapped up by cash 'investors'. That market has dried up.

But for your mid-upper end residential purchaser, who just wants a nice period house in a desirable location the 250-500k range, demand is still strong in the South East, at least. It's the froth and terrible properties outside of this bracket which are now simply not telling

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27 minutes ago, Mine the wheatfield said:

Is it a timing issue,  where the stats. lag reality?

I saw the Telegraph today, it is becoming even more a comic day by day.  I saw a great graph of its death-spiral circulation figures.  Can't be long before it is a niche publication delivered in plain packaging.

I think this is true for many of the papers.  They have themselves to blame by delivering "narratives", not news.  I'm not picking on any paper in particular - they're all as bad as each other, as are the news channels. 

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41 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Northampton'UK's a real basket case.  The council governemnt are in debt, huge Eastern European population, low wages, high benefits/tax credits high house prices, clapped-out town centre infrastructure where the only changes you see are negative ones (pound shops, "sell your gold" shops, charity shops, nail bars, massage parlours, coffeeshops)....and a strong feeling that the estate agents population there don't know the threats upon them.  Bridge St every town is literally 80% estate agents.  I've no idea where it will all end, but the whole set-up is anti-aspirational - if you want to live in that town country, you need your head read. 

I know it's all negative, but it used to be a thriving little town country.  All that needs to happen to get back to that is that house prices need to halve (at least).  The only problem is : that's not going to happen.  So it will muddle along in its zombie state.

 

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Quote

 

Northampton'UK's a real basket case.  The council governemnt are in debt, huge Eastern European population, low wages, high benefits/tax credits high house prices, clapped-out town centre infrastructure where the only changes you see are negative ones (pound shops, "sell your gold" shops, charity shops, nail bars, massage parlours, coffeeshops)....and a strong feeling that the estate agents population there don't know the threats upon them.  Bridge St every town is literally 80% estate agents.  I've no idea where it will all end, but the whole set-up is anti-aspirational - if you want to live in that town country, you need your head read. 

I know it's all negative, but it used to be a thriving little town country.  All that needs to happen to get back to that is that house prices need to halve (at least).  The only problem is : that's not going to happen.  So it will muddle along in its zombie state.

 

:) - yeah, it's true...Northampton is basically the UK.

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18 minutes ago, Kent Ambitions said:

In the current market, less desirable or over-priced properties simply will not sell, and that's a good thing.

During the mania a few months/years ago, any terrible property was snapped up by cash 'investors'. That market has dried up.

But for your mid-upper end residential purchaser, who just wants a nice period house in a desirable location the 250-500k range, demand is still strong in the South East, at least. It's the froth and terrible properties outside of this bracket which are now simply not telling

I feel like I have read this post somewhere before?

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1 hour ago, Agentimmo said:

I read it sometimes when flying BA. Free copies in the lounge. Wouldn't pay for it.

Also noticed that Heathrow and Gatwick now give away free copies of the Wall St Journal and the Times/Sun and Mirror when you are heading to the departure gates. WH Smith must despair.....  ;)

Not for much longer. Murdoch's pulled the plug on the print edition of the WSJ in Europe.

http://www.thedrum.com/news/2017/06/30/wall-street-journal-slash-international-print-runs

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2 hours ago, winkie said:

Nothing against them personally, they [the Telegraph]cater for a certain demographic good for them....but the last time I bought it have to admit was for the free bottle of water it came with....two for the price of one, have to say the recipes are good.;)

I don't think they do cater for a certain demographic, their views on Islamophobia etc are the same as the BBC, Guardian etc which are free.  Great idea for their journalists - so they might get a job on the BBC one day - but who is going to pay for a slightly bluer version of the Guardian?

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I really do wonder what Northampton will look like in 10 years' time.  I honestly can see Bridge St (full of estate agents) being full of bars and restaurants (like it used to be).  the EAs will be no more.  Two things will happen to kill high street EAs:-

1. The internet (Purple Bricks etc)

2. High house prices and low sales volumes

 

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32 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I don't think they do cater for a certain demographic, their views on Islamophobia etc are the same as the BBC, Guardian etc which are free.  Great idea for their journalists - so they might get a job on the BBC one day - but who is going to pay for a slightly bluer version of the Guardian?

Would buy it if I wanted to go on a cruise, or purchase an outfit/hat for a special do, plenty of good information, money facts and prices of things that haven't a hope or desire in buying... to be honest the only paper I buy into is local....and that as it happens is free.:)

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