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wsn03

Radio 4 - Hong Kong property

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Big feature on Hong Kong this morning, 20 years since the anniversary. Big issue is the infiltration from the Chinese in politics etc. They went on to talk about the social problems...blah blah....average flat is I forget, hundreds of thousands for a tiny space.

Two points of interest:

1. Didn't Japan have the same issue? Isn't it as overcrowded? Didn't its property market collapse big time? How far away is Japan?

2. They talked about young people protesting on the streets about it.

I'm a bit stumped. Not once did the BBC mention Japan, or the fact that property is only what someone is prepared to pay...as with here there's obviously far too much cheap money swilling around in an unregulated market. Must make the talk of London prices with all these guest "experts" seem ever so reasonable.

When cheap money ends the sh1t is going to hit the fan far harder in some countries than we will ever see in the UK.

Edited by wsn03

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They said a typical flat was >£1m for a space about the size of a typical UK living room.  They bemoaned that many folks are nothing more than slaves to their houses.

conditions of scarcity together with cheap money...surprise surprise = inflated prices.  Rich and powerful lording it and poorer and young under the yoke.  This model seems to be working well at the moment for the rich...surprisingly little push back or emigration.

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11 hours ago, Wayward said:

...surprisingly little push back or emigration.

That is the one thing that has truly amazed me. Many Honkies could sell their flats, emigrate, buy somethiing decent and still have plenty of money left over to retire on. Yet hardly anyone does it. 

When I ask about it, to many the social hurdle of leaving friends and family behind still seems an issue.

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8 hours ago, felix said:

That is the one thing that has truly amazed me. Many Honkies could sell their flats, emigrate, buy somethiing decent and still have plenty of money left over to retire on. Yet hardly anyone does it. 

When I ask about it, to many the social hurdle of leaving friends and family behind still seems an issue.

But why, in this age of cheap flights?

 

There's been a definite death of the sense of adventure I think. Everyone seems obsessed with being five minutes from everyone they know.

 

The number of friends i know who got married and then we're badgered into buying a house a stone's throw from the mother-in-law is phenomenal.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The number of friends i know who got married and then we're badgered into buying a house a stone's throw from the mother-in-law is phenomenal

perhaps there's some merit in being able to throw a stone at the mother in law.

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I live with the Mother-in-law, perhaps because she's Asian it's kind of the norm, totally accepted and works really well. I was horrified at the idea of having her "interfering" in our lives. Now I wouldn't be without her. She's amazing, and my life functions 10 times better with her in the house, especially now I have young kids. I wonder if this is the norm for Hong Kong people too?

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8 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

I live with the Mother-in-law, perhaps because she's Asian it's kind of the norm, totally accepted and works really well. I was horrified at the idea of having her "interfering" in our lives. Now I wouldn't be without her. She's amazing, and my life functions 10 times better with her in the house, especially now I have young kids. I wonder if this is the norm for Hong Kong people too?

In the context of that culture I can see the benefits, not in the Anglosphere though.

Many of generation X onwards are like children.

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4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

In the context of that culture I can see the benefits, not in the Anglosphere though.

Many of generation X onwards are like children.

I couldn't live with my Mother. I agree with your comment.

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People pay big money to live all squashed close together on top of one another, happens in different places....strength in numbers? feeling of security? help close at hand?......;)

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Quote

 

Three Ex-Billionaires See Fortunes Wiped Out in Hong Kong Stock Rout

Three former billionaires who made their fortunes by taking their companies public in Hong Kong shed more than 91 percent of their wealth amid the market rout that’s roiling small-cap stocks in the city. Bloomberg

 

800x-1.png

 

Something must be in the air.

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19 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

Something must be in the air.

Oops! That's some graph.

Edited by wsn03

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Quote

I'm a bit stumped. Not once did the BBC mention Japan

Nobody does.  House prices can only rise if we never mention Japan.  The "too crowded, that's why prices are high" argument works if we never mention Japan. 

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1 hour ago, rollover said:

 

Something must be in the air.

Indeed. From the same article on Bloomberg. This morsel:

 

 

Quote

 

2) Even Billionaires Get Foreclosed On

For the second time in a month, a condo at a high-profile Manhattan apartment building is going into foreclosure. An apartment that sold for $50.9 million in December 2014 is scheduled to be auctioned on July 19, Bloomberg’s Oshrat Carmiel reports. It isn’t clear who owns the apartment in One57, which is a high-rise on a part of West 57th Street known as “Billionaires’ Row.” Property records simply list shell company One57 79 Inc. as the owner. A one-year, $35.3 million mortgage was due in full last year to Luxembourg bank Banque Havilland, which is now proceeding with the foreclosure sale. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Nobody does.  House prices can only rise if we never mention Japan.  The "too crowded, that's why prices are high" argument works if we never mention Japan. 

 

Japan has a falling population - down 1 million in the 5 years between 2010 and 2015 (-0.78%) so isn't a great comparison.

 

Hong Kong has increased 300k in the same period (+4.2%), UK has increased 3 million (+4.8%)

 

It's not rocket science, growing population coupled with lack of supply = increasing prices. Chuck in rampant speculation in both markets and you end up where we are at the moment

 

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1 hour ago, EssKay said:

 

Japan has a falling population - down 1 million in the 5 years between 2010 and 2015 (-0.78%) so isn't a great comparison.

 

Hong Kong has increased 300k in the same period (+4.2%), UK has increased 3 million (+4.8%)

 

It's not rocket science, growing population coupled with lack of supply = increasing prices. Chuck in rampant speculation in both markets and you end up where we are at the moment

 

Japanese house prices have been falling since the early 90s - nearly 20 years before 2010.

The population of Japan was rising in that time (early 90s to 2010), while house prices fell:-

japan-population.png?s=jpn%2Bsp.pop.totl

japan-house-prices--nov08.gif

 

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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1 hour ago, EssKay said:

 

Japan has a falling population - down 1 million in the 5 years between 2010 and 2015 (-0.78%) so isn't a great comparison.

 

Hong Kong has increased 300k in the same period (+4.2%), UK has increased 3 million (+4.8%)

 

It's not rocket science, growing population coupled with lack of supply = increasing prices. Chuck in rampant speculation in both markets and you end up where we are at the moment

 

People really stop thinking supply and demand is everything to explain market movements.

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57 minutes ago, Freki said:

People really stop thinking supply and demand is everything to explain market movements.

 

Did you miss the "rampant speculation" part of the sentence? 

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1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Japanese house prices have been falling since the early 90s - nearly 20 years before 2010.

The population of Japan was rising in that time (early 90s to 2010), while house prices fell:-

 

Japan's population wasn't growing very fast though was it? 

+3  million (+2.4%) between 1990 and 2000, and +1.3 million (+1%) between 2000 and 2010.

 

Compare that to the UK:

+1.6 million (2.9%) between 1990 and 2000 (before stupid levels of HPI), and +3.8 million (+6.6%) between 2000 and 2010 (during stupid levels of HPI)

 

Japan has also historically had more freedom to build and better housing supply than the UK. This FT article has a good explanation of that

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14 minutes ago, EssKay said:

 

Japan's population wasn't growing very fast though was it? 

+3  million (+2.4%) between 1990 and 2000, and +1.3 million (+1%) between 2000 and 2010.

 

Compare that to the UK:

+1.6 million (2.9%) between 1990 and 2000 (before stupid levels of HPI), and +3.8 million (+6.6%) between 2000 and 2010 (during stupid levels of HPI)

 

Japan has also historically had more freedom to build and better housing supply than the UK. This FT article has a good explanation of that

Japan's population wasn't increasing that quickly, yes - but their house prices were COLLAPSING during that time! THAT is the point.  It's nothing to do with demand.  Also, now that the Japanese population is falling, their house prices are rising...

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8 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Japan's population wasn't increasing that quickly, yes - but their house prices were COLLAPSING during that time! THAT is the point.  It's nothing to do with demand.  Also, now that the Japanese population is falling, their house prices are rising...

Come on - it's a bit much to say it has nothing do with demand.

 

I've laid out my explanation - i.e. the difference in house price growth between the UK and Japan is down to differing rates of population growth (demand), differing constraints around what and where you can build (supply) and the seeming absence of rampant speculation in the Japanese market

 

What's your explanation?

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27 minutes ago, EssKay said:

Come on - it's a bit much to say it has nothing do with demand.

 

I've laid out my explanation - i.e. the difference in house price growth between the UK and Japan is down to differing rates of population growth (demand), differing constraints around what and where you can build (supply) and the seeming absence of rampant speculation in the Japanese market

 

What's your explanation?

Ummm, facts? How do you explain a RISING population with FALLING (COLLAPSING) house prices, if it's demand that makes house prices rise? In Japan, house prices rose sharply in the 80s because of their own economic bubble.  Nothing to do with demand.  Now that their population is FALLING, house prices are RISING.  Again, where's the connection to demand? There is none. 

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Nice straw man. When did I say it was just down to demand?

 

And why are you sitting on the fence? You obviously have a view on why the Japanese market has performed the way it has. so don't be coy - spit it out

 

 

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10 hours ago, EssKay said:

Nice straw man. When did I say it was just down to demand?

And why are you sitting on the fence? You obviously have a view on why the Japanese market has performed the way it has. so don't be coy - spit it ou

I'm saying that (to quote you) : "growing population coupled with lack of supply = increasing prices".  The very opposite has happened in Japan.  The facts back up my point and negate your point.  The population in Japan was rising when house prices were falling.  Now, house prices in Japan are rising while the population is falling - yet, you said this earlier:-

Quote

Japan has a falling population - down 1 million in the 5 years between 2010 and 2015 (-0.78%) so isn't a great comparison.

Hong Kong has increased 300k in the same period (+4.2%), UK has increased 3 million (+4.8%)

It's not rocket science, growing population coupled with lack of supply = increasing prices. Chuck in rampant speculation in both markets and you end up where we are at the moment

First off, and I know I sound like a broken record, but Japan's population was rising between 1991 and roughly 2010 - and at the very same time, their house prices collapsed.  Again, tediously, let me point out that Japan's house prices ROSE during the time you mention that their population FELL.

Regarding your statement I've highlighted, the opposite has happened in Japan.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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