winkie Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said: Waking up in Barnet Winkie a Londoner again nice semi looking towards Totteridge common, rented for a year Cuffley is empty and completes today, next doors drive has a Bentley GT and a McLaren on it - they have done the same and I know of two other couples doing the same Like us through choice the merry go round is about to stop anecdotal I know but last time we did this was Nov 2007 and came back in again Dec 2009, hence my 2 year window comment will be longer this time with Brexit uncertainty Wishing you well on your return......once an old boss asked me back and I said even though I enjoyed working with them I never go backwards only forwards.....places change, times change and people change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 8 hours ago, henry the king said: Lack of credibility. Over the last 10 years the credibility of the central banks has grown in importance. It is vital they look credible, so if the markets want ir rises the bank must deliver. Time will tell. If rates rise or qe is cut back this year then i will be proven correct as the markets will have forced it. Credibility is as important toddy as it was when independence was granted in 1997. It matters that the bank takes action when required to control inflation. The credibility is seen by markets reacting to Carney et al statements. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 8 hours ago, henry the king said: I didnt do the proper numbers, i just illustrated the point. The precedent for this scenario of real terms wage falls and sluggish growth can be seen in 2010 to 2012. The ons have data on real terms wages over this period which shows quite large falls. It also shows house prices over this period. From 2013 wages grew nicely and property prices rose. Currently we have slightly declining year on year real terms house prices according to nationwide, and probably halifax soon. This has again coincided with real terms wages declining. Why don't you do it proper numbers and see if you get a different answer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 8 hours ago, henry the king said: They must act in a way to get the desired response from the markets. The markets have the power. Yes they respond to the boe but the power lies with the markets as they will inflict negative consequences on the boe and the uk if they follow what they deem to be a bad course of action. You could potentially persuade me the fed has power over the markets but there is no way the boe does. It must follow the markets and has little real power. You can have it that way of you like. BoE controls monetary policy and executes it to meet its inflation target. If inflation is picking up then the bank will act to control inflation if required. You remind me of an old friend who smoked way too much weed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Bowman Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 1 hour ago, adarmo said: We got it for 11% below original asking price. It got reduced by 35k and we just couldn't believe something like this was coming up in our searches. It was still too high but a quick chat with estate agent and we were told they might look at lower offers if we could move quickly. I agree the window last time wad maybe 18 months to 24 months. What we were looking for though was very particular so when it came up we had to go for it. It's the best example we'd seen that we could afford. Good luck and nice reduction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 1 hour ago, adarmo said: If inflation is picking up then the bank will act to control inflation if required" It doesn't. It see's through inflation, independently does the government's bidding, and remains ever vigilant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 What I find amazing is how many people think that house prices only ever increase. :0 How do these people think that first time buyers are going to fund their mortgages? Total delusion to suggest that without massive wage growth, average salary employees can afford to buy £200k+ properties. They would need to borrow 10 times their income. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, Mine the wheatfield said: It doesn't. It see's through inflation, independently does the government's bidding, and remains ever vigilant. It sees through short term inflation. It looks two years ahead to target a rate of 2%. By independently doing the government's bidding you mean the govt sets the inflation target and benchmark of inflation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Some people would borrow 20 times their income if they could.....repayable over 125 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, adarmo said: By independently doing the government's bidding you mean the govt sets the inflation target and benchmark of inflation? I mean it is not remotely independent and supports the government. It's forward guidance is an abortion, it does what is convenient for the government, but will ultimately follow the Fed. It is a joke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lavalas Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Halifax index out tomorrow - prepare for deep joy/disappointment/ambivalence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 3 hours ago, winkie said: Some people would borrow 20 times their income if they could.....repayable over 125 years. depending in the interest rate I might be interested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 3 hours ago, Mine the wheatfield said: I mean it is not remotely independent and supports the government. It's forward guidance is an abortion, it does what is convenient for the government, but will ultimately follow the Fed. It is a joke. Oh. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 (edited) 40 minutes ago, adarmo said: depending in the interest rate I might be interested. Exactly..... £200 per week interest 24%.....interested? Edited July 6, 2017 by winkie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, winkie said: Exactly..... £200 per week interest 24%.....interested? Sorry. I'm out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm out Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 No problem ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up the spout Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 It's been a while so my memory might be hazy (through booze, mostly). If the BoE wants to reduce inflation it raises its rates target by buying bonds, reducing money in circulation and so making money more 'expensive'. It does the opposite if it wants to increase inflation. If it tries to sell bonds and there are no buyers, it has to reduce their price (raising the interest it'll pay on them) - that is where the market's power is. The FED does the same but its mandate also includes increasing US growth. Any corrections gratefully accepted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 Worth noting the lse research cited lower real terms wages as cause for a house price correction. It is going to happen. 2017 is the worst year ever to buy a house as prices will decline from here. Funny how all these economists are finally saying the things that are obvious to us here. Real terms wage decreases means house price falls. The question now is how this happens. Does it crash, does it fall slowly or does inflation cause the real terms falls with 5 years of stagnant house prices. Time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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