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gruffydd

Big property market wobble underway in Wales and N Ireland

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Hi - I'm still living in Wales and have also headed up to N Ireland to see granny over the last few days. 

Market in N Ireland seems to have had a breakdown - started chatting with a few property types and "bottom has fallen out the last couple of weeks"... will be interesting to see where things go from there - one was a surveyor who has been blocked booked for 2 years and is now getting zero bookings since last few weeks of turmoil. Sentiment is taking a beating there. 

Back in Wales I have been seeing a real downturn too in the last 2 weeks - less turmoil of course than N Ireland and tourism is on the up (keep meeting lots of Irish tourists here for the first time, for some reason - they come here for the hiking and dolphin watching and so on!) but it is feeling as though a plug has just been pulled. 

Who knows how long this will last. 

Edited by gruffydd

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Unfortunately from what I can see with Wales (Anglesey and Snowdonia) the only plug that's been pulled is by people not putting their houses on the market... 2 years ago I was getting around 4 RM alerts a day for my area, I don't even get 4 a week now.

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6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Add Scotland?

Talking to a mate yesterday whose council tax has just gone up 600 quid this year.

Some parts of Wales increasing council tax on 2nd homes?

Blimey, up to £700 quid, how will he cope :lol:

 

The ont last thing TPTB have to tax to svae their necks is housing/  How willing people are to give away their ill gotten untaxed unearned gains was quite cleary when theresa may suggested they would loose it all to pay for care.....they will any way.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Blimey, up to £700 quid, how will he cope :lol:

 

The ont last thing TPTB have to tax to svae their necks is housing/  How willing people are to give away their ill gotten untaxed unearned gains was quite cleary when theresa may suggested they would loose it all to pay for care.....they will any way.

 

 

No wonder the SNP lost so many seats:

The SNP Government has imposed rises of between 7.5% and 22.5% on Council tax from April. These increases apply to the top four of the 8 bands.

http://cameronrose.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/edinburgh-council-tax-to-rise-between-3.html

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17 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Hi - I'm still living in Wales and have also headed up to N Ireland to see granny over the last few days. 

Market in N Ireland seems to have had a breakdown - started chatting with a few property types and "bottom has fallen out the last couple of weeks"... will be interesting to see where things go from there - one was a surveyor who has been blocked booked for 2 years and is now getting zero bookings since last few weeks of turmoil. Sentiment is taking a beating there. 

Back in Wales I have been seeing a real downturn too in the last 2 weeks - less turmoil of course than N Ireland and tourism is on the up (keep meeting lots of Irish tourists here for the first time, for some reason - they come here for the hiking and dolphin watching and so on!) but it is feeling as though a plug has just been pulled. 

Who knows how long this will last. 

 

I have to say from anecdotal evidence of cycling around in the evenings, that the market in Belfast seems to be moving very briskly indeed.  I'm seeing loads of sale/ sale agreed signs up and plenty of new ones coming on nearby (presumably encouraged by the sale of said nearby property).  Also, I'm seeing stuff go from 'For Sale' to 'Sold' in relatively short periods of time, they're not hanging around.  This is after not much action earlier on in the Spring, it seems to have accelerated massively in May/June.

Two houses across the street from me have sold in the last few months.  One sold about a month and a half ago and the other came on the market almost immediately after the first sold.  Second one has now went sale agreed.  There doesn't seem to be any shortage of buyers.

 

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15 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Blimey, up to £700 quid, how will he cope :lol:

 

The ont last thing TPTB have to tax to svae their necks is housing/  How willing people are to give away their ill gotten untaxed unearned gains was quite cleary when theresa may suggested they would loose it all to pay for care.....they will any way.

 

 

Yes, the outcry when the possibility of not getting to bank property gains from parents was telling.  Even though the amount that wouldn't be reclaimed for care was increased quite generously, the notion that the 'wealth' in the house might be touched seemed to set people off big-time.  Apparently, a guaranteed 'allowance' of 100k to be passed on even if the parents needed expensive care wasn't enough.

FWIW, in NI at least, houses are already included in the calculation of assets as was proposed for England/Wales.  Total allowance is still only something like 33k, so 100k would be a massive improvement.

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7 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

 

I have to say from anecdotal evidence of cycling around in the evenings, that the market in Belfast seems to be moving very briskly indeed.  I'm seeing loads of sale/ sale agreed signs up and plenty of new ones coming on nearby (presumably encouraged by the sale of said nearby property).  Also, I'm seeing stuff go from 'For Sale' to 'Sold' in relatively short periods of time, they're not hanging around.  This is after not much action earlier on in the Spring, it seems to have accelerated massively in May/June.

Two houses across the street from me have sold in the last few months.  One sold about a month and a half ago and the other came on the market almost immediately after the first sold.  Second one has now went sale agreed.  There doesn't seem to be any shortage of buyers.

 

Where are you in Belfast? 

 

That's not my experience in south belfast. Loads are coming up, but not much going sale agreed around here. 

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When I go out for an evening cycle it tends to be around the East and South of the city.  Can't speak to North and West but definitely, loads of houses coming on and apparently going to 'Sale Agreed' relatively quickly.  It's not like a few years back when I observed stuff sticking around for months and months.

 

I haven't checked prices recently so I guess it could reflect price falls stimulating demand but I doubt it.  Prices seem to have been slowly but steadily rising for 3 years or so.

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Have to disagree there, Sour Mash. East Belfast and North adorn loads sitting with 7-17% reductions, on for over a year, occasionally going sale agreed then quietly the sign disappears. Here in Belfast I'm hearing loads of chains falling through and even home removals people telling me they are having tons of cancellations. Also massive ongoing hesitation with the Brexit or Fudge situation for anyone living near the border. So gruffydd you and I are hearing the same so I think you are bang on with this thread title. 

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1 hour ago, Thorn said:

Have to disagree there, Sour Mash. East Belfast and North adorn loads sitting with 7-17% reductions, on for over a year, occasionally going sale agreed then quietly the sign disappears. Here in Belfast I'm hearing loads of chains falling through and even home removals people telling me they are having tons of cancellations. Also massive ongoing hesitation with the Brexit or Fudge situation for anyone living near the border. So gruffydd you and I are hearing the same so I think you are bang on with this thread title. 

Thorn,

If you know a lot about NI, do you agree with Sour Mash's post in another thread?

Quote

 

On 21/06/2017 at 0:00PM, Sour Mash said:

There's been nothing close to the sort of widespread HPC that people here have been predicting/hoping for (i.e. real prices falling back to affordability with respect to incomes) with the exception of NI and even the up to 50% falls there didn't really bring prices into line with salaries.  Those 50% falls were on the crappiest of properties (typically off-plan flats and 2ups/2downs  in slummy areas), decent stuff (eg. 3 bed semis) didn't fall by nearly as much.

2006/7 was hailed as the peak of a crazy bubble with house prices expected to collapse across the board nationally thereafter but that simply hasn't happened.  There were the beginnings of nominal falls until all the ZIRP/ money printing, bank bailouts, liquidity injections, government props for buyers etc. all kicked in.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/230328-what-a-difference-a-year-makes/&do=findComment&comment=1103250659

 

I was hoping some people got a decent property at a decent price but apparently not....

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1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Thorn,

If you know a lot about NI, do you agree with Sour Mash's post in another thread?

I was hoping some people got a decent property at a decent price but apparently not....

I don't agree - knowing where my granny lives down in Armagh everything collapsed in price a few years ago - good stuff, bad stuff - you name it. Perhaps Belfast is different but no idea - usually avoid the city like the plague... I can just about cope with Dundalk but Belfast? NEVER NEVER NEVER! LOL! 

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Wales is surreal at the moment becuase it has been DISCOVERED by foreign tourists - Irish, German, American (gee North Wales) - never seen so many, yet economy is even more wrecked than normal (see the panic about call centre jobs in Cardiff!)

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12 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

I don't agree - knowing where my granny lives down in Armagh everything collapsed in price a few years ago - good stuff, bad stuff - you name it. Perhaps Belfast is different but no idea - usually avoid the city like the plague... I can just about cope with Dundalk but Belfast? NEVER NEVER NEVER! LOL! 

OK thanks.

I was thinking about it from a maths point of view. If prices fell by up to 50% on average, then surely it needed some decent properties above 3 bed semi to also fall by a large amount. 

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39 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

Wales is surreal at the moment becuase it has been DISCOVERED by foreign tourists - Irish, German, American (gee North Wales) - never seen so many, yet economy is even more wrecked than normal (see the panic about call centre jobs in Cardiff!)

Yeah there's been a massive publicity push to attract tourists to Anglesey and North Wales... Lonely Planet has Snowdonia as one of the top ten destinations in the world(!!!) for 2017 and Treardur Bay (Anglesey) has been proclaimed the no.1 ''must visit'' beach destination in the UK for 2017, in both cases that's a huge exaggeration and I suspect many first time visitors will be left rather underwhelmed about what all the hype is about.

I can't quite understand just why there's been such concentrated publicity for this particular part of the country, while so many other parts of the UK coast and countryside haven't received any.

And I agree, despite the increased tourist numbers, I'm seeing little benefit to the local economy.

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2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Thorn,

If you know a lot about NI, do you agree with Sour Mash's post in another thread?

I was hoping some people got a decent property at a decent price but apparently not....

Nope / don't agree with that assessment at all. It was Armageddon for a lot of people here in lots of areas and there were nice juicy bargains with deals being done quietly via networks through solicitors putting word out to find buyers rather than estate agents doing the deals. And anyway I think it's that old chestnut- prices are set at the margins- and I keep hearing about the margins. I think you have to ignore headlines and PR from VIs. There is a feeling now everywhere here of just watching I think, rather than buying (Still a bit of Boomer-on-Boomer). But for most especially anyone I know in their 40s, it seems there still is a ton of negative equity going on all over. It's a regular in conversation. Hearing anecdotal of keys being handed back this week here in Belfast for a disaster after bank here refusing to negotiate on a with borrower who was aiming to 'Let it out, Innit' when he inherited his Mum's place. Not good for sentiment, that sort of craic. For sure, before the GFC, there was madness up here which was fired up and overlapped by the madness in the Republic which spread. A friend was working beside an estate agent near the border in 2006- a Mercedes with Dublin plates pulled up and the driver left his wife in the car while he went in to ask the estate agent for 'every property he had under £100,000' and ended up buying 9. That sort of thing  drove prices up here through the roof, same as was happening in the South. Dublin friends found that their house bought for 1.5million Euro in 2006 then sold for 705k Euro in 2012. I know of a lot of people in a Belfast who leveraged up in the run up to the GFC and were fed cheap credit by the banks, and not just in poor areas it was everywhere. 

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8 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

 

I have to say from anecdotal evidence of cycling around in the evenings, that the market in Belfast seems to be moving very briskly indeed.  I'm seeing loads of sale/ sale agreed signs up and plenty of new ones coming on nearby (presumably encouraged by the sale of said nearby property).  Also, I'm seeing stuff go from 'For Sale' to 'Sold' in relatively short periods of time, they're not hanging around.  This is after not much action earlier on in the Spring, it seems to have accelerated massively in May/June.

Two houses across the street from me have sold in the last few months.  One sold about a month and a half ago and the other came on the market almost immediately after the first sold.  Second one has now went sale agreed.  There doesn't seem to be any shortage of buyers.

 

Please find out if the land registry data matches this.   Was there ever an actual sale taking place at most of these addresses ?

My understanding if that if the current owner wants to remortgage (as many might being on IO fix term deals) but there is a dispute between the bank and the owner about that the property is now worth they need to put it up for sale and get an offer in for the value the owner is claiming (maybe the owners friend can even make the offer ;-).  So at the moment over the past 2/3/5 years the value should have gone up, everyone agrees that YoY is net positive ?  So the bank will always be the one under offering on the new mortgage deal about what the LTV now is.

So a "For Sale" board up for 2 weeks and then SOLD, might not mean anything if the original owner is still living there 6 months later.

 

 

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4 hours ago, nome said:

Yeah there's been a massive publicity push to attract tourists to Anglesey and North Wales... Lonely Planet has Snowdonia as one of the top ten destinations in the world(!!!) for 2017 and Treardur Bay (Anglesey) has been proclaimed the no.1 ''must visit'' beach destination in the UK for 2017, in both cases that's a huge exaggeration and I suspect many first time visitors will be left rather underwhelmed about what all the hype is about.

I can't quite understand just why there's been such concentrated publicity for this particular part of the country, while so many other parts of the UK coast and countryside haven't received any.

And I agree, despite the increased tourist numbers, I'm seeing little benefit to the local economy.

As a southerner I suspect you're used to the scenery but it usually stuns me when I head up there - Dolgellau, Barmouth, Llyn, Conwy Valley - it is totally stunning to me anyway. As for Anglesey... I think you have to know the island to appreciate it - I do a bit and again it is hard to beat in places. This church for one! Aerial_View_of_St_Cwyfan's_Church.jpg

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18 hours ago, Thorn said:

Nope / don't agree with that assessment at all. It was Armageddon for a lot of people here in lots of areas and there were nice juicy bargains with deals being done quietly via networks through solicitors putting word out to find buyers rather than estate agents doing the deals. And anyway I think it's that old chestnut- prices are set at the margins- and I keep hearing about the margins. I think you have to ignore headlines and PR from VIs. There is a feeling now everywhere here of just watching I think, rather than buying (Still a bit of Boomer-on-Boomer). But for most especially anyone I know in their 40s, it seems there still is a ton of negative equity going on all over. It's a regular in conversation. Hearing anecdotal of keys being handed back this week here in Belfast for a disaster after bank here refusing to negotiate on a with borrower who was aiming to 'Let it out, Innit' when he inherited his Mum's place. Not good for sentiment, that sort of craic. For sure, before the GFC, there was madness up here which was fired up and overlapped by the madness in the Republic which spread. A friend was working beside an estate agent near the border in 2006- a Mercedes with Dublin plates pulled up and the driver left his wife in the car while he went in to ask the estate agent for 'every property he had under £100,000' and ended up buying 9. That sort of thing  drove prices up here through the roof, same as was happening in the South. Dublin friends found that their house bought for 1.5million Euro in 2006 then sold for 705k Euro in 2012. I know of a lot of people in a Belfast who leveraged up in the run up to the GFC and were fed cheap credit by the banks, and not just in poor areas it was everywhere. 

OK thanks.

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19 hours ago, nome said:

Yeah there's been a massive publicity push to attract tourists to Anglesey and North Wales... Lonely Planet has Snowdonia as one of the top ten destinations in the world(!!!) for 2017 and Treardur Bay (Anglesey) has been proclaimed the no.1 ''must visit'' beach destination in the UK for 2017, in both cases that's a huge exaggeration and I suspect many first time visitors will be left rather underwhelmed about what all the hype is about.

I can't quite understand just why there's been such concentrated publicity for this particular part of the country, while so many other parts of the UK coast and countryside haven't received any.

And I agree, despite the increased tourist numbers, I'm seeing little benefit to the local economy.

Maybe the proposed Nuclear Power station on Anglesey is seen as bad news for the tourist industry, so they are making more effort?

https://www.horizonnuclearpower.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/419

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