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The bears are well fed in Oxford..


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On 17/07/2019 at 09:42, shavedchimp said:

From the July 2019 Land Registry report for England:

Oxford £423,156 £403,766 4.8%

 

Increase of 4.8%?.....What the...?

Doesn't reflect what I'm seeing

Tbh since Oxford is small the sold price numbers tend to be pretty volatile and this is reflected in the annual change values. IME the mean price in the city seems to fluctuate between about £400-425k, occasionally dipping beneath. IIRC this month's LR value was something like -3.4%, while the month before it was a positive value of similar magnitude. I think the mean price this month is a shade under £400k; but if previous behaviour is anything to go buy it'll be up again next month :(

 

On 17/07/2019 at 11:47, shavedchimp said:

.....26% fall in sales volumes in Oxford and Oxfordshire though (May 2018 - May 2019)....

Indeed - while price tends to vary in both direction, volumes only ever seem to go down - which is promising!

Anecdotally it seems that flats continue to be hammered; typically being down by ballpark 20% from their 2016 peak. Houses don't seem to have been hit as hard (maybe 5-10%..?) but I have less insight into this as most of the houses in the city are beyond my budget.

The inventory on Rightmove is very telling IMO - the total amount of properties available in my search results currently standing at 168, while historically I'd have expected around 110-125 perhaps. 

This appears to be because of both an increase in property coming to market (mainly landlords shifting ex-rentals it seems) and a reduction in sales due to lack of buyer appetite at the prescribed prices. Sadly it seems that there are fewer houses coming to market; presumably because a larger proportion are owner-occupied (or owned by fewer "entry-level" / recent LLs) and there is currently less immediate incentive to sell than there is for LLs.

Something I've not noticed before are the few blocks of ex-rental properties appearing for sale with numerous different agents at the same time , with prices continually being cut before they're pulled and go to auction..

It appears that the four flats below are part of a corporate BTL portfolio that have already been to auction once and are potentially destined for a repeat visit..

Firstly there are three two-bed flats on the Water Eaton Rd ("city centre location" my ****); first listed in June at £375k(!) dropped at approx. monthly intervals and now at £240k:

One
Two
Three

Despite currently being listed as for sale on RM these all apparently sold in the September Barnard Marcus auction for £251k, £250k, and (possibly) £250k respectively. Not sure why they're still advertised - perhaps the buyer(s) got cold feet and didn't complete...?  The RM asking price was at £250k for each at the time of the auction and has been dropped by another £10k since.  

Sold price information for the area is scant with the last listed sale in the area being a flat for £325k in 2015 - so perhaps the initial £375k asking for those above was "sincere" and arrived at by the typical EA formula of "take the last sale price and add x%". Alternatively I get the feeling that these numbers are just propaganda to generate interest in the auction. Assuming that the £325k sold price can be taken as indicative of what these flats were going for, that's a fall of £75k  or about 22% since 2015 - and that was a year before the market peaked.

Similarly this 50-55m^2 one-bedroom flat on Henry Rd was first listed in June at £295k and is now on at £220k. This one's already been to auction and got as far as £208.5k but didn't sell at that as presumably this was (foolishly, IMO) rejected by the seller. By comparison, internally it's of very similar layout and size to our old one which was in the same area but a little further from town and with obscene service charges.. that sold for (IIRC) about £255k in 2016.

The Henry Rd flat has been re-listed in the BM October auction at a guide of £220k; will be interesting to see if it surpasses the previous highest bid...

 


 

Edited by ftb_fml
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On 30/09/2019 at 15:31, shavedchimp said:

Oxford the only English city to see house prices fall since 2018:

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17930199.oxford-english-city-see-house-prices-fall-since-2018/

 

To be fair according to their source material Oxford's average price fluctuates between about £400k and £425k (thanks to the volatility of the small sample size I'd guess), so sadly it's old / non-news..

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On 22/12/2019 at 13:01, shavedchimp said:

For what it's worth, here's some potentially good end-of-year news regarding Oxford:

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/18117416.oxford-house-prices-fall-faster-average/

 

Thanks - again though I think a lot of that is down to volatility and it'll probably be nearly cancelled out by an up-swing next month / the one after etc. Might hopefully affect sentiment though :)

That said, thanks to the Land Registry's new widget we can see the trends plotted over the past years; it's noisy but you can make out a trend of annual growth falling from an eye-watering 13.8% in Jan 2015 to -3.8% in Jan 2018; a fall of 17.6 percentage points over three years.

Round this down to make a linear trend line fit better and you're looking at a downward trend in "growth" of around 5 percentage points per year. Sadly it looks like this trend has slowed a bit since; with an imaginary trend line from Jan 2018 to Jan 2020 suggesting that this annual decline has fallen to maybe 1.5% per year.

It's certainly going down, but at this rate nowhere near fast enough to make it worth holding out for a purchase.. hopefully the post-brexit environment will provide a suitable black swan to precipitate a more rapid decline.

 

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Don't know what you're seeing, but I get the feeling that asking prices (since the market re-opened) are creeping up to a bold level, and a lot of properties I've had an eye on have gone STC in the last few weeks. Depressed.

Is it a case of the last bullet winning the war?

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1 hour ago, shavedchimp said:

Don't know what you're seeing, but I get the feeling that asking prices (since the market re-opened) are creeping up to a bold level, and a lot of properties I've had an eye on have gone STC in the last few weeks. Depressed.

Is it a case of the last bullet winning the war?

The over excitement does not tally with the rate at which banks are cutting mortgages.

Few banks will be lending much for the next 6 months.

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10 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

We just sold our place in Oxford, it was on the market for a week before going.  Loads of viewings within the first couple of days and 4 serious offers.  The market is going bonkers according to our EA.

All the EA's are saying the same in the markets I'm looking at. However, have you sold or just SSTC? The acid test will be whether the financing is available assuming a mortgage is required.

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On 7/12/2020 at 9:08 AM, micawber said:

All the EA's are saying the same in the markets I'm looking at. However, have you sold or just SSTC? The acid test will be whether the financing is available assuming a mortgage is required.

We're just sold STC, we deliberately chose a buyer with a large deposit, so hoping it goes through.

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5 years ago sold for £249k. Minimal work done......which then completely justifies a 2020 asking price of £395k!

Real inflationary 2020 price should be circa £278k. Sigh...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-84537685.html

 

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On 9/7/2020 at 3:43 PM, shavedchimp said:

5 years ago sold for £249k. Minimal work done......which then completely justifies a 2020 asking price of £395k!

Real inflationary 2020 price should be circa £278k. Sigh...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-84537685.html

 

I see it's on with Chancellors, lol.  Hold tight for the price reduction on that.  No way that's going to sell for 395, i know that area well.

Edited by Martin_JD
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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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