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The bears are well fed in Oxford..


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On 1/17/2018 at 6:06 PM, Mrs Bear said:

Just checked daughter's area again - OX3 - several empty HMOs just on the first page of zoopla. 

Courtesy of their 'most reduced' feature, how about this?  A 5 bed in fairly central Headington, originally on for £745k in Jul 2017, now 'offers over' £599,999!  

Last sale, Aug 1999, £98,500!  Methinks owner can afford to drop quite a bit more...

 

Thats totally nuts. How can a place be worth 645k more? Insane!

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3 hours ago, shavedchimp said:

Beat me to it - the Mrs found this a couple of hours ago too, which is what led me here :)

Despite the usual efforts to downplay its significance by the source, -1.3% MoM and -5% YoY are certainly cause for celebration; as is seeing such a significant drop covered in the mainstream press (along with 100% favourable comments although I don't agree with all the pro-new build stuff).

Hopefully we'll see this trend accelerate now all of the city's many BTL scumbags have had their first post-S24 tax bill and the spectre of asset deflation looms ever larger :D

Edited by ftb_fml
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Further to this, today's RM reductions that have so far appeared in my inbox:

73m^2, 2-bedroom flat in mediocre-but-not-terrible part of town and a "long" (short) 120yr lease left; added almost one month ago at £260k, now down to £235k after two reductions. Not sure if it's BTL or OO... it's a bit all over the place in terms of desirability so I'm not sure how silly the original asking was, but it's certainly come down a lot at £25k / 10% in the first month after listing.

45m^2, 1-bedroom flat in fairly decent area, again shortish (95yr) lease, added less than 2wks ago at £240k, now down to £225k after a hefty £15k / 6% drop. "NO ONWARD CHAIN" wonderfully suggests another BTL scumbag scrambling to exit the market :)

I've also seen stuff local to me anecdotally coming down too; the 3-bed 30's and 50's semis all used to start at about £350-360k; have seen a couple knocked down to £340k and one recently reduced to £325k, although admittedly it didn't hang around long. Turnover still seem to be fairly brisk too in this area, unfortunately.

The price trend is definitely down in the city - it's now just a case of how far and how fast it goes!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by ftb_fml
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I've seen a property for sale that I'm interested in. Last sale was April 2014 at £382k, and now they're asking £520k.

I understand that the property has been renovated (don't know if that's full or partial), it's EPC has been raised, and there's a new kitchen.

Bearing all that in mind, and the current climate in Oxford, how would you work out a realistic value on this? What kind of cheeky/ruthless discount might be entertained?

I think we have to help moving this thing along by putting in low offers (or insulting offers as some sellers might say). Adjusting expectations...

What do you think?

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On 08/06/2018 at 09:45, shavedchimp said:

I've seen a property for sale that I'm interested in. Last sale was April 2014 at £382k, and now they're asking £520k.

I understand that the property has been renovated (don't know if that's full or partial), it's EPC has been raised, and there's a new kitchen.

Bearing all that in mind, and the current climate in Oxford, how would you work out a realistic value on this? What kind of cheeky/ruthless discount might be entertained?

I think we have to help moving this thing along by putting in low offers (or insulting offers as some sellers might say). Adjusting expectations...

What do you think?

Can you see the previous sales brochure/photos on RM sold data?  

I can still see daughter's old sales photos  - bought in 2015.  Would give you an idea of what they've done to justify (or not) the price. 

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On 08/06/2018 at 09:45, shavedchimp said:

I've seen a property for sale that I'm interested in. Last sale was April 2014 at £382k, and now they're asking £520k.

I understand that the property has been renovated (don't know if that's full or partial), it's EPC has been raised, and there's a new kitchen.

Bearing all that in mind, and the current climate in Oxford, how would you work out a realistic value on this? What kind of cheeky/ruthless discount might be entertained?

I think we have to help moving this thing along by putting in low offers (or insulting offers as some sellers might say). Adjusting expectations...

What do you think?

That's a big jump! Hometrack reckons around 26% price inflation over this period which would put you at around £480k, so you'd be assuming an additional £40k in added value from the work they'd done. It all depends on how much you and the seller believe the market will fall - personally I'd not touch anything in a market that appears to be declining from such stratospheric highs, although you might feel differently if you've got the money and really like the property.
 

As an aside, another property I've been keeping an eye on that's been falling nicely: a '76m^2 '30s 3 bed in Botley that's had 10% slashed off the initial asking from £350k to £315k in two months. Granted it evidently needs some tidying (and might be subject to undisclosed issues that are keeping it from selling) however usually this sort of stuff sells for £350k+ in this area IME.

I also find this one interesting - another '30s (I think) 87m^2, 3 bed semi with a garage just inside the ring road; I think it went on for £340-350k in June last year and was reduced in around feb I think to the currnet £325k. Intrinsically I love it but the location's horrific as the only access is straight onto one side of a busy dual carriageway (the A34) which has to shave £50k off the value compared to similar properties nearby. Given the state of the market, the time it's been on and the fact that it's empty, I'd not be surprised to see it go for sub-£300k.

Unfortunately stuff still continues to sell at a reasonable rate in this area, although not as rampantly as it used to and the less desirable stuff seems to be sitting on the shelves for longer / requiring further reduction to shift.

According to Property Log 7 of the 18 houses in the area with an asking price ceiling of £450k have been reduced, and I know that some reductions pre-date the introduction of the plugin so realistically it's probably more than half.

 

 

Edited by ftb_fml
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On 15/08/2018 at 08:38, shavedchimp said:

Regardless of previous, long-ish term growth it's most certainly on the turn now. Just checked my RM search for the first time in a while - typically 100-110 properties listed, it currently stands at 147 - I've never seen so many.

Also, revisiting the few, very similar 1-bed flats in Wolvercote that were mentioned in my OP and focussing on those with garages:

- We viewed one in early 2016; group viewing of three flats, loads of people, advertised at £230k and went for £258k.
- Another was listed in June 2017, we didn't view, advertised at £230k and went for the asking in December 2017.
- Most recent one; listed at £240k mid-August, reduced to £225k at the beginning of September and again today to £200k.

So based on these minimal but very similar and comparable examples that's a £28k / 9% drop in 12-18 months between the first two, then assuming the most recent one sells for £200k, a further £30k / 13% fall in another 12-18 months.

Comparing the flat sold in 2016 to the one currently on the market (assuming it sells for the asking, which to be fair I don't think it'll be far away from) that's a fall of nearly £60k or about £23% in 2.5yrs. Not sure what sort of sellers bought the 2016 example but I bet they're not happy if keeping an eye on the market!

While still selling, generic 3-bed 30s and 50s properties in Botley continue to be reduced. The lowest I've seen now being 300k for a tatty example reduced from £325k two months ago and still not selling - so realistically that's going to go for less than £300k providing the buyers don't pull it.  In the time I've been looking (a couple of years perhaps) this is the lowest I've seen these properties.

In this area and others in the city reductions now seem to be far more swift, frequent and significant - for example this 3-bed just up the hill - listed at £375k mid-July, reduced to £365k three weeks later, then again to £350k at the end of August and finally (so far) to £325k at the beginning of this month - a fall of £50k or around 14% in less than three months. 

Turning to lower-priced properties on Zoopla (thanks to its excellent facility to sort stuff by reduction amount) of the 120 results 5 have been reduced by 15-20%, a further 17 have been reduced by 10-15%, another 22 by 5-10% and 16 reduced by 0-5%. 60 properties / 50% of those listed have been reduced to some extent which is well up from the 30ish percent I recall when I looked last time.

The most reduced is an apparently ex-rental flat in Littlemore; a drop of 20% from 250k to £200k in July. Clearly well-overpriced (scumbag Chancellors) at the current asking since it's only 38m^2 and the time it's been on suggests it's going nowhere. £180k maybe?

Another example of a significant, rapid reduction is this 2-bed in North Oxford - first listed at £325k at the end of July and now down to £275k today - a drop of £50k or 15% in two-and-a-bit months. It's empty so I'm guessing ex-rental and the seller evidently has a long way to go before they make a loss as it was bought for £57k in 2004.. but the rate at which they're slashing the price suggests they understand the way the market's heading and want to get out ASAP.

It has a long way to go to reach sane levels, but IMO the writing's on the wall for the Oxford housing market.

Edited by ftb_fml
Edited as price of Wolvercote flat has been cut by another £25k..
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6 hours ago, shavedchimp said:

Excellent analysis ftb_fml

Thanks for that. By the way, which source did you use to find out about a previous sale price going back to 2004?

 

Thanks and no problem :)

Not sure what's going on further up the market as I only tend to pay attention to stuff I can "afford" / could possibly buy if there was a correction. From the observations of a mate the trend is certainly continuing a bit further up the price scale with flats taking the biggest hammering throughout.

The price data came from Zoopla - shame it's not the dominant sales portal really as has so much more information for the potential buyer (although that's probably why agents prefer to use RM ?). I'm using it more now but it's about 15% down on listing volumes compared to RM.

2 hours ago, Locke said:

Looks like an actual bloody prison. Hope the scumlord gets locked into massive negative equity.

I think it used to be a pub.. to be fair at least it's a characterful period building that sits just about on the border between sketchy and less sketchy parts of town. Price is a piss-take though (especially when compared to the admittedly-good Wolvercote example also mentioned in my post, which is a similar size but a much nicer area and has a garage). 

I completely share your sentiments about the landlord though! Bought in 2010 for £120k so there's £80k to chase plus annual yields to take into account.. however it went on the market a year ago and is empty in the pics - so hopefully the scumbag's missed out on a year's rent; chucking 10-11k down the pan.

I've seen a few examples lately of relatively recent "investors" who've definitely been burned to the tune of £40-50k.. my heart bleeds :D

Edited by ftb_fml
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Wasn't worth starting a new thread but I had to rant about this latest property that's just dropped into my inbox, courtesy of Rightmove.

1819_RSH104254_IMG_04_0000_max_656x437.J

We all know agents are physiologically unable to tell the truth, however the description for this one is really pushing the envelope IMO:

Quote

This lovely three bedroom semi-detached property in the desirable area of east oxford with access to local shops, amenities and main but routes, further benefits include off street parking and large rear garden. This property is a fantastic investment opportunity, Viewing's highly recommended.

I think even Stevie Wonder would struggle to legitimately describe that as "lovely". The area they describe as appealing is one of the worst in the city - I'd guess lower 25th percentile in terms of crime and general grottyness.

I'd hazard a guess that the only reason it''s such a "fantastic investment opportunity" is because it's possibly non-standard construction (there are quite a few in this area) and as such nobody will grant a mortgage on it; restricting it to cash buyers only.

What a joke - I wonder how its price (and conversely the agent's "credibility") will go..?

 

 

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Rather quiet here eh?

Perhaps some of you watch the auctions? You'll be aware of this place then:

https://auctions.savills.co.uk/Auctions/LotDetails?pid=e127f249-741f-4ba8-bed3-fbfd3f582683&us=

It has major problems with a retaining wall, so expensive work required, plus every room needs renovating. I went to see it at an open viewing - the place was packed with sour-faced anaemic investor types. You see what effect an auction can bring?

First on the market for £350k IIRC, dropped to £280kwith no takers. This morning sold for....£319k!!

Similar nearby properties have reached 375-425k (and on quieter roads). After costs, taxes, structural work and renovation is that really worth it? Lot of work and risk in a falling market.....and still they come.

Wise move from the owners - they created a buzz where previously there was none.

 

Edited by shavedchimp
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On 14/05/2019 at 08:43, shavedchimp said:

Where is everybody??

I've not been on HPC as long as you have but I remember when the regional subforum was much busier. Ever since the start of Osborne's "nice little housing boom" in 2012 it's almost completely died. I think people mostly ended up in one of two camps, either held their noses and bought at market price or gave up on property ownership for the foreseeable future. Either way no need to monitor the local market.

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13 hours ago, Dorkins said:

I've not been on HPC as long as you have but I remember when the regional subforum was much busier. Ever since the start of Osborne's "nice little housing boom" in 2012 it's almost completely died. I think people mostly ended up in one of two camps, either held their noses and bought at market price or gave up on property ownership for the foreseeable future. Either way no need to monitor the local market.

Or the market just stopped.

Newcastle forum was interesting.

Loads of stuff being shoved in the centre.

Just look at the sales figures

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=newcastle_upon_tyne&all=1

And that includes a lot of IO BTLers running in post 08.

 

 

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