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AvoidDebt

House sales have fallen by nearly a third in some parts of UK, says Lloyds

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The comments on that article mostly identify correctly the problem, decades of cheap debt.

Now the players in the market are trying to pin the blame on stamp duty. They quote that a £1m house costs £43k in duty to move whilst HPI is running at 3.3%. Well that £1m property will have increase by that amount in about a year and a half. Even if they scrapped stamp duty in the matter of just a year or two the whole market will have consumed that prop.

 

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5 minutes ago, Blod said:

The comments on that article mostly identify correctly the problem, decades of cheap debt.

Now the players in the market are trying to pin the blame on stamp duty. They quote that a £1m house costs £43k in duty to move whilst HPI is running at 3.3%. Well that £1m property will have increase by that amount in about a year and a half. Even if they scrapped stamp duty in the matter of just a year or two the whole market will have consumed that prop.

 

1m used to be the target, everyone today seems to be a millionaire, at least if you own a good sized property in right location and even half that in some pretty much wrong locations.

 

2700265324_f7b904c780.jpg

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But only a 7% fall in England and Wales overall. London down 18%.

Still not enough. Still far too many people paying crazy prices.

We know interest rates won't rise after what Carney said yesterday.

Economic problems caused by Brexit is our only hope of a significant fall in house in prices. 

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1 hour ago, AvoidDebt said:

House sales have fallen by nearly a third in some parts of UK, says Lloyds

So gather round children, sit down sit down. Stop picking your nose Billy.

Now, class of HPC, whose been paying attention over the last term? Pop quiz hotshots - fill in the blanks:

"A fall in _____ ______ is usually preceded by a decline in transactions."

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9 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

So gather round children, sit down sit down. Stop picking your nose Billy.

Now, class of HPC, whose been paying attention over the last term? Pop quiz hotshots - fill in the blanks:

"A fall in _____ ______ is usually preceded by a decline in transactions."

With the caveat that it depends which end of the market's driving the stagnation in sales - be it lack of supply or lack of demand. While prices definitely appear to be falling around here (both anecdotally and according to last month's Hometrack figures) supply is very low as people apparently have little incentive to sell. S24 and hopefully increasing sentiment that prices are falling should help motivate the BTL scumbags, while inflation also appears to be biting and debt-led consumption (and corresponding economic "growth") seems to be decreasing - all pointing to less funding for further purchases and HPI. An IR hike would also be useful, but I'm not holding my breath.

I remain as hopeful as I've ever been though - lots of

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32 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

So gather round children, sit down sit down. Stop picking your nose Billy.

Now, class of HPC, whose been paying attention over the last term? Pop quiz hotshots - fill in the blanks:

"A fall in _____ ______ is usually preceded by a decline in transactions."

(Puts Kirstie and Phil hat on)

 

Freshly baked bread?

Proximity to a trendy high street?

Homemade knitted tea cosies?

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1 minute ago, JustAnotherProle said:

Twigged Vases?

You mean Japanese weeping sticks in a contemporary far Eastern glass emotivase?

 

Yours for £300, it's the finishing touches that make a house sale, after all.

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Just now, Si1 said:

You mean Japanese weeping sticks in a contemporary far Eastern glass emotivase?

 

Yours for £300, it's the finishing touches that make a house sale, after all.

Superb wordwang on the description correction .My god, you must be an estate agent.

Either that or you have become what you hate....:lol:

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7 minutes ago, JustAnotherProle said:

Superb wordwang on the description correction .My god, you must be an estate agent.

Either that or you have become what you hate....:lol:

Omg I've become an interior designer

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Quote

The average property now changes hands once every eight years, said Patel, a year longer than the commonly held view that people move every seven years, although he added that there is incomplete data in this area.

Wow, that's new to me. Does someone has better understanding regarding the 7 - 8 years period?

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I suspect removing SDLT for second homes would be politically undoable now that Labour is biting at the heels of the Tories. Would look like giving rich people a tax break.

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2 hours ago, Tempus said:

But only a 7% fall in England and Wales overall. London down 18%.

Still not enough. Still far too many people paying crazy prices.

We know interest rates won't rise after what Carney said yesterday you can't trust a single word Carney or any other central banker says.

UK rates have always tracked US rates. OK it could be different this time but I don't think so.

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6 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

UK rates have always tracked US rates. OK it could be different this time but I don't think so.

It's definitely different this time, till it's not.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Blod said:

The comments on that article mostly identify correctly the problem, decades of cheap debt.

Now the players in the market are trying to pin the blame on stamp duty. They quote that a £1m house costs £43k in duty to move whilst HPI is running at 3.3%. Well that £1m property will have increase by that amount in about a year and a half. Even if they scrapped stamp duty in the matter of just a year or two the whole market will have consumed that prop.

 

Yes and no, if you own a £1m with zero stamp duty the cost of moving to another one would be £10-15k, with stamp duty £53-58k.

That is quite a big difference and makes people less keen on moving house.

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Anecdotal but two post on a facebook group I follow this morning:

Well we're trying to sell our house on the mainland to buy on the island. we're getting footfall but no one actually making an offer, which means we can't make an offer even if we saw a property we liked. I have moved lots of times and this is the worse ever. We have been on the market for 16 weeks now.

 

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I have spent most of the night looking at comparable property to the one I am endeavouring to sell which is depressing. Prices are tumbling. I wonder if the Queens Speech will bring any optimism to the financial markets today? I'll not hold my breath. 

 

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46 minutes ago, CunningPlan said:

Anecdotal but two post on a facebook group I follow this morning:

Well we're trying to sell our house on the mainland to buy on the island. we're getting footfall but no one actually making an offer, which means we can't make an offer even if we saw a property we liked. I have moved lots of times and this is the worse ever. We have been on the market for 16 weeks now.

 

------------------------

I have spent most of the night looking at comparable property to the one I am endeavouring to sell which is depressing. Prices are tumbling. I wonder if the Queens Speech will bring any optimism to the financial markets today? I'll not hold my breath. 

 

Where approximately is this, if you don't mind me asking?

Classic "I can't sell my house"... Price too high, much?

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5 hours ago, Tempus said:

But only a 7% fall in England and Wales overall. London down 18%.

Still not enough. Still far too many people paying crazy prices.

We know interest rates won't rise after what Carney said yesterday.

Economic problems caused by Brexit is our only hope of a significant fall in house in prices. 

Carney's comments at Mansion House indicated quite clearly his dovish position however it was a speech by Andy Haldane that demonstrated the gaining hawkishness within the BOE and allowed the pound to rise. 

"He said that the risk was that the Bank tightened its belt too late rather than too early. This is something which the Bank of Canada is also worried about and what the US Federal Reserve had long been wary of, and the European Central Bank better be ready for. The latter came across pretty dovish at its last meeting. With the BoE turning hawkish and ECB remaining dovish, the EUR/GBP could come under pressure in the coming days and weeks."

You could just ignore his comment but the fact is the markets didn't.

2 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

Yes and no, if you own a £1m with zero stamp duty the cost of moving to another one would be £10-15k, with stamp duty £53-58k.

That is quite a big difference and makes people less keen on moving house.

The fact is it's still only two years of gains going on the quote figure of HPI. The issue of duty only really raise its head if the buyers of £1m properties aren't confident that HPI is on their side. What is really being asked for is more HPI.

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11 minutes ago, Blod said:

The fact is it's still only two years of gains going on the quote figure of HPI. The issue of duty only really raise its head if the buyers of £1m properties aren't confident that HPI is on their side. What is really being asked for is more HPI.

I disagree if you have house of value x and you want to move to a house of value y the future price is irrelevant because you have the same value asset either way.  The cost is important of moving is what will encourage to move or not.

For example suppose by moving I save £1000 a year in petrol, if the cost of moving is £500 then it makes sense to move.  If the cost is £100,000 then I won't move.

(A house is a good as well as an asset)

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6 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

With the caveat that it depends which end of the market's driving the stagnation in sales - be it lack of supply or lack of demand. While prices definitely appear to be falling around here (both anecdotally and according to last month's Hometrack figures) supply is very low as people apparently have little incentive to sell. S24 and hopefully increasing sentiment that prices are falling should help motivate the BTL scumbags, while inflation also appears to be biting and debt-led consumption (and corresponding economic "growth") seems to be decreasing - all pointing to less funding for further purchases and HPI. An IR hike would also be useful, but I'm not holding my breath.

I remain as hopeful as I've ever been though - lots of

In the places I'm following I think supply is increasing (although I'm unsure how supply compares with previous years).  I'm looking at places along the M4 and also in Herts.  I have a feeling people are testing the water so to speak and realising prices are turning so they may as well try to sell and crystallize their "mad gainz" while the going is good especially if they are in a position to downsize/move further away from London etc.

Some places have a glut of ex BTLs eg Sandhurst in Berkshire and I've watched the price reduce from £300K+ for a 2 bed terrace to £270K for the cheapest in the past few weeks..........still way overpriced but it's a start.  Also look at the number of 3 bed semis in Croxley Green (Herts) for people moving out of London..........only about £550K.....what bargains!!

I wonder how many will actually sell though unless the prices come down:D

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1 minute ago, iamnumerate said:

I disagree if you have house of value x and you want to move to a house of value y the future price is irrelevant because you have the same value asset either way.  The cost is important of moving is what will encourage to move or not.

For example suppose by moving I save £1000 a year in petrol, if the cost of moving is £500 then it makes sense to move.  If the cost is £100,000 then I won't move.

(A house is a good as well as an asset)

Moving house in a falling market after decades of way above inflation HPI is going to focus the mind more than previously when you would feel safe knowing HPI was increasing its value. Locally the rash of sales and the immediate refurbs has all but ended with even some moving into unfinished properties. Now fifty thousand duty is a lot but on a £1m property it represents five percent.

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