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I note that ESPC (www.espc.com) still haven't put the sales stats for Q3 and 4.

I wonder why?

Quarter 1 and 2 stats largely show drops (up to 7%) or stagnation in Edinburgh.

Still rising in the lothians though, so ESPC can still talk the market up with total averages!

Scotlands going to suffer big time when the ball gets rolling.

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I remember back in October/November one of us emailed the ESPC and

eventually they sent on a copy of the quarter 3 report (which was then

posted to this site).

I seemed to show overall a small increase of 3%-4% year-on-year, with

some drops for 1-beds Gorgie/Dalry and maybe 2-beds in Marchmont?

Can't remember for sure.

They never put it up on their website though ....

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thanks roblpm.

-6 in stockbridge!!

maybe Q4 isn't looking so good.

anyone know how quick they were to post the results when the good times were a rollin'?

Edited by geneer

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Where did you get these figures from?

Looks like they are resorting to narrowing their samples to produce decent looking figures, look at the difference between these and previous reports;

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=176

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=174

For a while they switched to include Edinburgh and Lothians... but the gist of those figures is Edinburgh city centre only. Yet looking at some of the stats they don't pair up with the old figures.

I smell a rat.

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Where did you get these figures from?

Looks like they are resorting to narrowing their samples to produce decent looking figures, look at the difference between these and previous reports;

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=176

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=174

For a while they switched to include Edinburgh and Lothians... but the gist of those figures is Edinburgh city centre only. Yet looking at some of the stats they don't pair up with the old figures.

I smell a rat.

have they changed the measure they are using for avg price? east lothian figures don't make sense:

from 1st quarter 2005 report:

2005 £s 176004

2004 £s 164691

Percentage Change(%) 6.87

from 4th quarter 2005 report:

2005 £s/vol 157837

2004 £s/vol 142920

Percentage change/vol 10.44

or maybe i am just slow today? :blink:

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Come on you lazy Edinburgh types!!

Here's one to get you going:

From nethouseprices:

21, Littlejohn Avenue,

Edinburgh,

Midlothian,

£397,000

More Details 19-May-2004

Map (EH105TG)

On for fixed price 398k

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPa...aspx?rid=181153

Thats not much inflation!! Its new build so i suppose that accounts for it.

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got them from the ESPC DBT!! didn't make them up i promise!!

Sorry, what I meant was how did you get them... you just emailed?

I wonder why they don't make them public any more... probably to stop pesky doom mongers drawing invalid conclusions or spotting any obvious holes in the stats.

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Hi All.

I sat down and input all of the data from all of the available EPSC quarterly reports for each area, just to try and get a feel of the local market.

I've put it into an Excel file for those who are interested, but I've had to zip it for uploading.

It's interesting to note that the are changes in how the data is tabulated at a couple of points, so that there is no way to compare to previous figures. Hence quite a few empty columns; seems to confirm DBT's thoughts about smelling rats.

I've also made a simple graph of the Edinburgh-only property prices vs time.

Looks to me like the market peaked in 2004 (Q2), although there was a 'rally' in 2005 (Q3).

All comments welcome.

Pete

ESPC_quarterly_reports.zip

ESPC_quarterly_reports.zip

Edited by pweil

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I stay in the Borders but saw a solicitors' free Edinburgh property paper recently. It wasn't ESPC but some consortium of lawyers. There seemed to be a very high proportion of fixed price properties, most of them flats. They (the solicitors) were talking about "blue sky Sunday syndrome" or something like that. I was almost too incredulous to take it in but it was something about if you have a sunny Sunday in February, property prices will go up... <_<

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Sorry, what I meant was how did you get them... you just emailed?

I wonder why they don't make them public any more... probably to stop pesky doom mongers drawing invalid conclusions or spotting any obvious holes in the stats.

The article posted ealier appears verbatim in the current EPSC homepages newspaper thing. They seem to have given up printing the table that they usually do, presumably because it makes it too easy to see what's going on.

Meanwhile, the Scotsman and Evening News continue to provide plenty of space for the usual suspects:

House sales soar as movers shake market back into life

THE Capital's housing market is set for one of its busiest years as experts predict a massive increase in the number of people moving home.

...

But the good news for potential buyers is that the explosion in property sales will not be matched by rocketing prices.

Property experts say prices will maintain a steady increase and are not likely to match the massive rises seen during Edinburgh's peak period three years ago.

...

ESPC marketing director Simon Fairclough said he expected the recent buoyant trend to continue throughout 2006.

He said: "The housing market has really become more stable over the past few months.

"What has happened is that we have the same factors that we had during the boom years of 2002 to 2003, but people have become more familiar with the conditions we had to put up with then such as high property prices.

"The figures for the last quarter of 2005 are going to indicate that the first few months of 2006 are going to be pretty buoyant."

Mr Fairclough said some factors remained the same as the peak growth period of 2002 - including a strong local economy, low interest rates and certain demographic trends, such as people wanting to move to outlying areas, but others wanting to remain in the city centre.

But he said people were not panic buying or listening to scare-mongering warnings of a property boom. He added: "It is a much more measured reaction from buyers and sellers. We have stopped listening to the hype and what is being written about the state of things, which is very easy to get caught up in. "Some places were predicting doom and gloom in volume of sales and price, but we were more bullish about it. "We can be confident that property prices will continue to go up but not at the unsustainable level that they were."

They seemed to be really keen to hype things up at the end of last year.

From 29th December: Eager viewers buck trend of slowdown in house market

THE number of house-hunters viewing properties in the Capital has soared by 50 per cent in the last three months, according to a leading estate agent.

23rd December: £200,000 premium on capital's houses

HOUSEHUNTERS in Edinburgh are paying almost £200,000 over the asking price to secure prime properties. Experts at leading agents Savills say demand for exclusive houses in the capital is continuing to push up prices.

23rd December again: Property price rise 'to hit ten per cent again'

THE property market will grow by ten per cent next year, according to a leading estate agent. Strutt & Parker says the Bank of Scotland's estimate of seven per cent in its 2006 economic forecast was overly cautious.

5th December: Merry Christmas for house sales

THE property market in the Capital is undergoing a mini-boom with selling agents experiencing an unexpected surge in sales. The unusual flurry of sales in the run-up to Christmas has been put down to a growing recognition among house sellers that they will not necessarily make a killing. They are instead increasingly willing to accept reasonable offers for their property, rather than hang on for an unrealistic high price, say experts.

There was a particularly good one on 24th November: City housing market 'facing slump with single survey system'

PROPERTY experts today warned a revolution in Scotland's system of house-buying risked causing a slump in the market in the Capital.

MSPs were poised to pass a new law this afternoon introducing compulsory single seller surveys, where the owner selling a house pays for one survey, which is then made available to all potential purchasers.

...

But the Edinburgh-based ELPG group of property solicitors branded the scheme "unwise, unwanted and unworkable". And it claimed the Scottish public were being forced to "sleepwalk into a scenario which will not operate in their interest".

...

Steve Spence, from Neilsons, one of the seven firms in the ELPG group, said: "All the people, particularly those in Edinburgh, who have spent an awful lot of money to go on and move up the property ladder could find the value of their home seriously reduced."The consequences of this cannot be overstated. A healthy and sustainable property market supports a massive chunk of Scotland's economy such as those people and businesses involved in the construction, DIY, interiors, retail and furnishings sectors.

"And that's before you consider how many people are using their property as their best pension option."

So that's fine then: we're poised for unlimited (but perfectly sustainable) growth in the Edinburgh housing market, but making things slightly easier for buyers is going to heve disastrous consequences for the entire Scottish economy. These people never cease to amaze me.

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DBT just for the record if you mail Lorna.Wharton@espc.com she mails them right back. So if i get run over by a bus you can get the next ones!

Anyway how is married life!!!!! You've been a bit quiet!!

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So that's fine then: we're poised for unlimited (but perfectly sustainable) growth in the Edinburgh housing market, but making things slightly easier for buyers is going to heve disastrous consequences for the entire Scottish economy. These people never cease to amaze me.

Noone told the land registry then, latest figures from BBC - Edinburgh +2.5% Quarter -3.8% Annual

Interesting that the rate cut bounce couldn't stop a negative annual. In fact check the figures out and look at all those lovely annual negatives... East Lothian, West Lothian, Midlothian, Falkirk, Stirling... the list goes on. I've seen quarterly drops before in these stats but no annual ones!

Full stats:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/region12.stm

Scotland, in total, last quarter down -0.5%

DBT just for the record if you mail Lorna.Wharton@espc.com she mails them right back. So if i get run over by a bus you can get the next ones!

Anyway how is married life!!!!! You've been a bit quiet!!

Not bad all... been very busy that's all! Just moved to a nice house (rented... of course).

So does that lassie answer questions about the dubios nature of the stats and why certain things go missing every now and then? :lol:

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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Mixed news in Edinburgh.

ESPC has gone above 5000 today. This is up from about 3800 in early January. In Edinburgh (excluding Lothians) the number for sale has increased from about 1100 to about 1800. Back in early January there were 670 fixed in Edinburgh (about 60%). Now there’s about 580 properties with prices fixed (32%). EAs and sellers are clearly feeling ‘optimistic’. I hope it backfires.

Whether houses are selling, I can’t say. And I’ve no idea where prices are going. The increase in numbers has been fairly steady though. If the trend continues we could have over 6000 listed on ESPC for sale in Edinburgh & Lothians sometime in April. And that doesn’t include the overpriced new build.

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If DBT hadn't gone and got himself married we'd have a bit more news on the trends on the ESPC!! Personally I think its a bit early in the season to tell where prices are going but I would advise anyone thinking about Edinburgh to buy in Nov/Dec as thats when all the FP properties were sitting around not doing much.

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If DBT hadn't gone and got himself married we'd have a bit more news on the trends on the ESPC!! Personally I think its a bit early in the season to tell where prices are going but I would advise anyone thinking about Edinburgh to buy in Nov/Dec as thats when all the FP properties were sitting around not doing much.

I have been tracking the properties in my street in corstorphine since July now and it is very slow. There are two bungalows still on the market at FP since July!

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I have been tracking the properties in my street in corstorphine since July now and it is very slow. There are two bungalows still on the market at FP since July!

I tracked 4 fixed price properties in Leith over the past 4-6 weeks. They are all gone!

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I tracked 4 fixed price properties in Leith over the past 4-6 weeks. They are all gone!

Prices I am talking about are up to £300K FP, perhaps the highest priced properties slow down first in a downturn? What prices are you looking at?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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