Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
?...!

The Magic Formula

Recommended Posts

This is for the 50 year scale so will NOT get you rich fast

OK here it is...

y = (100 + (x * A) + (B*(Sin(C*x))) + Rnd

100 is an arbitrary value

A = Long term economic growth factor (derived from long term growth)

?...! says: This may go negative for a while after peak oil.

B = Economic Cyclic Impact (value based on boom/bust difference)

?...! says: This depends on government and the behaviour of people like Greenspan.

C = Time period of the economic cycle

?...! says: This is down to speculation and market momentum.

Rnd = The impact of random unpredictable events (9/11, Katrina, etc)

?...! says: This is a random number generator but you need to select the upper limit carefully. May become astronomical if climate change looks really, really bad.

All four of these coefficients are subject to constant change based on current affairs and the economic climate.

The skill comes from the investor’s ability to derive working and accurate numbers for the crunch.

P.S. I know there is no magic formula but put this on a graph and toy with it, it’s quite interesting… When you get it to work.

Please do not reply to this post ranting about how there is no formula...

IT'S JUST A FORECASTING TOOL

Oh and no "it would be great if that was true" either, see above.

[edit] Swap sin out for cos since we are entering a downturn. Still working on it, knocked it up over lunch.

Edited by ?...!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

R

Please do not reply to this post ranting about how there is no formula...

IT'S JUST A FORECASTING TOOL

Oh and no "it would be great if that was true" either, see above.

can i say "it would be great if there is no formula"???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe a pretty graph might generate some more replies?

Econ_Graph.jpg

[edit] by the way the pretty graph refers to the next 50 years if conditions do not change. We all know they will, but the idea is you evolve the graph with time, using the variables.

I give up

can i say "it would be great if there is no formula"???

Yea

post-3701-1138370195.jpg

Edited by ?...!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is for the 50 year scale so will NOT get you rich fast

OK here it is...

y = (100 + (x * A) + (B*(Sin(C*x))) + Rnd

100 is an arbitrary value

A = Long term economic growth factor (derived from long term growth)

?...! says: This may go negative for a while after peak oil.

B = Economic Cyclic Impact (value based on boom/bust difference)

?...! says: This depends on government and the behaviour of people like Greenspan.

C = Time period of the economic cycle

?...! says: This is down to speculation and market momentum.

Rnd = The impact of random unpredictable events (9/11, Katrina, etc)

?...! says: This is a random number generator but you need to select the upper limit carefully. May become astronomical if climate change looks really, really bad.

All four of these coefficients are subject to constant change based on current affairs and the economic climate.

The skill comes from the investor’s ability to derive working and accurate numbers for the crunch.

P.S. I know there is no magic formula but put this on a graph and toy with it, it’s quite interesting… When you get it to work.

Please do not reply to this post ranting about how there is no formula...

IT'S JUST A FORECASTING TOOL

Oh and no "it would be great if that was true" either, see above.

[edit] Swap sin out for cos since we are entering a downturn. Still working on it, knock it up over lunch.

Your mathematical model is no where near as complicated as the complex mathematical model in use at our research HQ.

Your algorithm is puny.

Please do not litter this board with spurious data as it upsets our mathematical model.

We are rapidly approaching the time when we will be able to predict with almost 99% accuracy the exact date and epi-center of the projected **********. At the moment there is no discernible data as to whether there will be a global crash or not, our pumping of data and analysis resumes 24/7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your mathematical model is no where near as complicated as the complex mathematical model in use at our research HQ.

Your algorithm is puny.

Please do not litter this board with spurious data as it upsets our mathematical model.

We are rapidly approaching the time when we will be able to predict with almost 99% accuracy the exact date and epi-center of the projected **********. At the moment there is no discernible data as to whether there will be a global crash or not, our pumping of data and analysis resumes 24/7

Sounds like The Monkey is back in town..... :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your mathematical model is no where near as complicated as the complex mathematical model in use at our research HQ.

Your algorithm is puny.

Please do not litter this board with spurious data as it upsets our mathematical model.

We are rapidly approaching the time when we will be able to predict with almost 99% accuracy the exact date and epi-center of the projected **********. At the moment there is no discernible data as to whether there will be a global crash or not, our pumping of data and analysis resumes 24/7

Yea, it's a fag packet calc. Point being?

It’s was “dreamt up” after taking a stab at formulating an equation that would produce a chart similar to historical data.

Hope your research HQ iterates for the effects of your 24/7 data pumping. Then again iteration is one of the most inefficient process for a CPU to undertake. What level of error in your results are you comfortable with?

I’ll give you a tip you will be able to predict the date and epicentre of a *** a few years after it’s happened. Build a time machine instead.

Edited by ?...!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yea, it's a fag packet calc. Point being?

It’s was “dreamt up” after taking a stab at formulating an equation that would produce a chart similar to historical data.

Hope your research HQ iterates for the effects of your 24/7 data pumping. Then again iteration is one of the most inefficient process for a CPU to undertake. What level of error in your results are you comfortable with?

I’ll give you a tip you will be able to predict the date and epicentre of a *** a few years after it’s happened. Build a time machine instead.

Two things I was impressed with your model, not quite John Nash but impressive all the same :P Second point, I reckon there was sarcasm, laced with irony and sprinkled with good humour in the criticism of your efforts ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two things I was impressed with your model, not quite John Nash but impressive all the same :P Second point, I reckon there was sarcasm, laced with irony and sprinkled with good humour in the criticism of your efforts ;)

Well I hope so. I was a bit peeved by the total lack of any debate. After all criticism is a good thing.

I would have liked a bit of a debate on the whole thing and was hoping to explain the values I used for each of the four variables.

I will re-post this model in the future, after I build a better case for it.

Hopefully I will be able to present it with more razamatazz next time.

It is a bit of a 'fag packet' calc but I think thats all any investor needs. It even acounts for unpredictable events, speculation, market momentum, and how completing work generates cash.

The whole thing is only a few hours old.

But establishing a mathematical formula that can chart the economic cycles of the past will be of use now and in the future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I hope so. I was a bit peeved by the total lack of any debate. After all criticism is a good thing.

I would have liked a bit of a debate on the whole thing and was hoping to explain the values I used for each of the four variables.

I will re-post this model in the future, after I build a better case for it.

Hopefully I will be able to present it with more razamatazz next time.

It is a bit of a 'fag packet' calc but I think thats all any investor needs. It even acounts for unpredictable events, speculation, market momentum, and how completing work generates cash.

The whole thing is only a few hours old.

But establishing a mathematical formula that can chart the economic cycles of the past will be of use now and in the future.

Can it predict lottery numbers as well?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bart of Darkness

Your mathematical model is no where near as complicated as the complex mathematical model in use at our research HQ.

Your algorithm is puny.

Please do not litter this board with spurious data as it upsets our mathematical model.

We are rapidly approaching the time when we will be able to predict with almost 99% accuracy the exact date and epi-center of the projected **********. At the moment there is no discernible data as to whether there will be a global crash or not, our pumping of data and analysis resumes 24/7

What exactly do Layered Technologies do then OAB?

I've tried looking at your site but either it's not Firefox compatible or ZoneAlarm is blocking some content.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your mathematical model is no where near as complicated as the complex mathematical model in use at our research HQ.

Your algorithm is puny.

Please do not litter this board with spurious data as it upsets our mathematical model.

We are rapidly approaching the time when we will be able to predict with almost 99% accuracy the exact date and epi-center of the projected **********. At the moment there is no discernible data as to whether there will be a global crash or not, our pumping of data and analysis resumes 24/7

Definately Simian:- Puny, We, Pumping.

And the same for "?...!"

Troll crossed with VI = TriVIal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.