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Trump Invective

Is it the time? Or completely the wrong time?

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Just a thought.

There are already a few excuses as to why house prices could fall (brexit uncertainty the main one) but following the hung parliament, which apparently causes house prices to fall (not sure why? both main parties have done nothing to let it happen in the past) surely this is the ideal moment, EXCUSE WISE, to let them slide.

However, I guess the fact that autumn may bring another election means the exact opposite - they need something, in the form of higher house prices, to cling on to in the next few months, otherwise tory support will unravel and Labour will swing their wrecking ball of momentum back at Tory party HQ and is game over for the blues.

My feeling is that the government aren't in control enough (interest rates nowt to do with us, props need to be overtly removed) to actually enable prices to slide, even if they wanted to. But what about the other way (actually interest rates suddenly to do with us in the form of a quiet word with Carnage, more QE due to 'uncertainty' ditto) enabling prices to hold or increase?

Saturday at work ramblings.

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Well there's rumblings about extending help to buy to older properties. Unfortunately Sibley and co. were bang on the money, they won't let them crash. Waiting for HPC looking like a very bad trade. 

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"Politicians will have to consider the needs of the young more than they have in the past which could mean more help for first-time buyers, perhaps extending Help to Buy so that it covers older properties as well as new build, dealing with affordability issues and more help on stamp duty." Jeremy Leaf, North London estate agent and former Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors residential chairman

Jesus wept!!

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Are you referring to the 95% Help to Buy Mortgages?  If so, these were extended to older properties some years back.

HTB must be finishing soon. When introduced back in 2013, it was only meant to be a temporary measure.

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6 minutes ago, HaX said:

Are you referring to the 95% Help to Buy Mortgages?  If so, these were extended to older properties some years back.

HTB must be finishing soon. When introduced back in 2013, it was only meant to be a temporary measure.

I assume Mr. J. Leaf wants equity loan side of it extending in light of political circumstances (actually any circumstances!)

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4 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

Just a thought.

There are already a few excuses as to why house prices could fall (brexit uncertainty the main one) but following the hung parliament, which apparently causes house prices to fall (not sure why? both main parties have done nothing to let it happen in the past) surely this is the ideal moment, EXCUSE WISE, to let them slide.

However, I guess the fact that autumn may bring another election means the exact opposite - they need something, in the form of higher house prices, to cling on to in the next few months, otherwise tory support will unravel and Labour will swing their wrecking ball of momentum back at Tory party HQ and is game over for the blues.

My feeling is that the government aren't in control enough (interest rates nowt to do with us, props need to be overtly removed) to actually enable prices to slide, even if they wanted to. But what about the other way (actually interest rates suddenly to do with us in the form of a quiet word with Carnage, more QE due to 'uncertainty' ditto) enabling prices to hold or increase?

Saturday at work ramblings.

How does that work with the BREXIT clock ticking?

If the Tories subject us to a leadership or God forbid another general election, I believe they will be punished BIG TIME.

Time to get to work on those BREXIT talks boys and girls...time to earn your bloody money and pensions...get on with it FFS.

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4 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

"However, I guess the fact that autumn may bring another election means the exact opposite"

Wait! What? Why?

Another election! are you joking?

Edited by SavingBear

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12 minutes ago, SavingBear said:

Wait! What? Why?

Another election! are you joking?

Who knows in these crazy times? Can the govt. hold together? The MSM are suggesting the possibility of this autumn, but I guess thats part of the uncertainty.

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54 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

If the Tories subject us to a leadership or God forbid another general election, I believe they will be punished BIG TIME.

If they had a quick, clean and democratic leadership contest (that is to say not another coronation), which put a decent person in charge (I'm a bit short of suggestions there), then I think the public would understand, and wouldn't punish them at the next election. However, I believe that May, being an authoritarian who's had a taste of ultimate British political power, isn't going to let go: you'll have to prise that drug out of her cold (politically) dead hands.

Another general election within a few months, though, because they can't hold a coalition together? The electorate will slaughter them, surely? That's a big incentive to keep the DUP sweet, and to make some concessions they might not otherwise be comfortable with. Other than old-school religious fundamentalism, is there anything we should be worried about in the DUP manifesto?

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18 minutes ago, Toast said:

 Other than old-school religious fundamentalism, is there anything we should be worried about in the DUP manifesto?

Anti abortion and anti LBGT rights i.e. anti gay marriage. This going to send this government even further to the right.

Already managed to alienate one of their best assets and only success story from the election.

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The timetable for another GE is too short for a decent crash (I reckon early Autumn), so another "prop" will be wrapped up as especially "helping" the youth/FTB, in an attempt to whore their vote.  The government will hope for a HPC when they have a potential 5 year go - they are so very useless that they unlikely to be able to manufacture a crash. 

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I don't think we will see more props. FTB have enough 'help', the HPC risk has been distributed onto BTL quite nicely, and the banks can lay claim to their main residence. 

all that will happen is a big change in sentiment, and the continued squeeze on BTL, after all the biggest 'help' is 20% off current prices. The sentiment change is slow and the bigger reductions will come this autumn. 

even after the crisis sellers took three years to reduce asking prices from 130k for a flat to 70k (Yorkshire). 

theres is going to be a lot of chasing the market down. 

the main parties now know the young have a gun to their head, no longer is HPI the golden ticket.

Is it time to buy? well I don't thing we are going to see huge falls outside of London maybe 20-30%. after than the market will flatline until sellers can come to terms with the new clearance level (that could take 3 years).

i think end of this year and next year is probably going to be the best time to buy for a few years, although volume will remain low. Won't be any bargains to have in the housing market, the days of proves under shooting fair value are long gone. 

Edited by jiltedjen

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20 hours ago, Toast said:

If they had a quick, clean and democratic leadership contest (that is to say not another coronation), which put a decent person in charge (I'm a bit short of suggestions there), then I think the public would understand, and wouldn't punish them at the next election.

The rules of their party dictate that they CAN'T have a quick leadership contest, so that's not going to happen.

 

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On 2017-6-10 at 3:44 PM, HaX said:

Are you referring to the 95% Help to Buy Mortgages?  If so, these were extended to older properties some years back.

HTB must be finishing soon. When introduced back in 2013, it was only meant to be a temporary measure.

The mortgage guarantee scheme part of Help to Buy closed 31 December 2016 (link). The mortgage guarantee scheme always included non-new build properties (see for example this 2013 FT article, google "UK Help to Buy mortgage scheme: Q & A", link for subscribers).

There are an increasing number of 95% LTV 'mortgage products' being offered by lenders, but it is being reported that rates on the products, having fallen for a long time, may finally be bottoming out:

Quote

However, the comparison site highlighted that the traditional two-year fixed rate market seemed to have become saturated due to heavy competition among providers.

Instead, it suggested many providers had shifted their focus to longer-term deals.

“First-time buyers have had a good start to the year, too, with the number of products at 95% LTV increasing from 242 in January to 287 today,” said Moneyfacts press officer Charlotte Nelson.

“Rates have also fallen in this key area, with the average five-year fixed rate at 95% LTV dropping from 4.63% to 4.58% over the same period.”

She added: “There are signs the housing market is starting to stagnate.

“If this continues, it can have a serious impact on the mortgage market, causing the growth we have seen at the very least to slow, however this might be compensated by borrowers looking to remortgage. This could be partly to blame for the small reduction in the average two-year fixed rate over the past six months.

“Given the increased choice in the market, it is even more important for everyone to shop around to ensure they get the best deal for them,” Nelson added.

Source: Mortgage Solutions, Fixed-term rates starting to flatten – Moneyfacts, 5 June 2017

 

Edited by Pumpkin Muad'Dib

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On 6/11/2017 at 9:49 AM, jiltedjen said:

the main parties now know the young have a gun to their head, no longer is HPI the golden ticket

This

We are already well past the point where ever higher house prices became a political liability.

The Tory attack on BTL is arguably a political calculation - priced out & tenants outnumber landlords by a large margin, so there are simply more potential votes by favoring the former.

The election result can only push all of the main parties even further in that direction.

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On 2017-6-11 at 9:49 AM, jiltedjen said:

I don't think we will see more props. FTB have enough 'help', the HPC risk has been distributed onto BTL quite nicely, and the banks can lay claim to their main residence. 

all that will happen is a big change in sentiment, and the continued squeeze on BTL, after all the biggest 'help' is 20% off current prices. The sentiment change is slow and the bigger reductions will come this autumn. 

even after the crisis sellers took three years to reduce asking prices from 130k for a flat to 70k (Yorkshire). 

theres is going to be a lot of chasing the market down. 

the main parties now know the young have a gun to their head, no longer is HPI the golden ticket.

Is it time to buy? well I don't thing we are going to see huge falls outside of London maybe 20-30%. after than the market will flatline until sellers can come to terms with the new clearance level (that could take 3 years).

i think end of this year and next year is probably going to be the best time to buy for a few years, although volume will remain low. Won't be any bargains to have in the housing market, the days of proves under shooting fair value are long gone. 

It was different...this time.

The UKs about to eat itself.

The young v old

Immigrants v the english

Black v white

Christian v muslim

North v south

Old v young

London v the rest

 

The UK is a basket case, the London collapse is well under way, this will have a massive impact around the country, we're already seeing sentiment has shifted considerable and the ( state controlled)MSM are on the side of a crash now.

No investment increases forever and it will revert to it's long term mean.

 

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look at barclays latest advert and see where they are trying to get help from ???  

0.25 base rate  HTB  tiered stamp duty rates , and that is not enough . 

Barclays answer is Ask BOMAD for more money , what`s next BOGAG bank of gradpa and granddad. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, longgone said:

look at barclays latest advert and see where they are trying to get help from ???  

0.25 base rate  HTB  tiered stamp duty rates , and that is not enough . 

Barclays answer is Ask BOMAD for more money , what`s next BOGAG bank of gradpa and granddad. 

 

 

BORAB ?

 

Bank Of Robbing A Bank ?

 

 

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So with the Tory election disaster which was significantly contributed to by the dementia tax and the removal of the triple lock you've got the potential to extend help to by which would give the following benefits :

i) Continue to prop up the market keeping the older demographic happy.

ii) Can be claimed it is being done to help the young get on the housing ladder.

iii) Pushes the dead cat into someone elses back yard, in the respect that if there are any consequences to it they will probably hit several years down the line.

iv) Gets more "homeowners" who are likely to vote Tory

v) Probably will only cost a few billion quid in the short term, which can be printed up.

So the question is not whether they will extend it, but why the hell they wouldn't and where they could spend some money to better effect.

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