Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Sancho Panza

New instructions decline for 15th consecutive month as agent stock levels hit all-time low

Recommended Posts

Property Industry Eye 8/6/17

'Buyer demand and new instructions slipped yet again in May as the market awaits the General Election outcome, surveyors claimed this morning.

The latest RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed that a growing number of its estate agent members cited a decline in new instructions, in the 15th consecutive negative month.

Consequently, RICS said, stock levels remain stuck at all-time lows with the average number of unsold homes on estate agents’ books at 43.

Agreed sales also continued to decline for a second month running with 8% more respondents seeing a fall in agreed sales.

Despite the drop in sales, the average time taken to complete a transaction held steady at 16 weeks in May, RICS said.

The report claims there has consistently been a fall in property coming on to the market over the past two years, but says anecdotal evidence from respondents to the survey in May suggests this latest drop may have been exacerbated by the General Election.

Surveyors are more optimistic about the next 12 months, anticipating an increase in activity and price rises.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, said: “The increasingly tight secondhand market remains a cause for concern, with the RICS series tracking new instructions to agents recording its 15th successive negative reading.

“It is hard to see this as anything other than a major obstacle to the efficient functioning of the housing market.”'

 

 

Wrong sort of leaves on the roofs.

Edited by Sancho Panza

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With no sales, the banks cant lend, if the banks calt lend, they will die.

The banks need a crash more than we do now :lol: 

The BTLers/Foreign investors were the bottom of the barrel, no one can or will pay these prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People are not moving, possibly because they can't afford the difference for next rung up the housing"ladder" or possibly because they've seen a snake.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Option5 said:

People are not moving, possibly because they can't afford the difference for next rung up the housing"ladder" or possibly because they've seen a snake.

Or because there is nothing supporting the  bottom of the chains any more.

 

That was Osbornes/Carmeron's cleaver/evil move, the basically supported the bottom of the pyramid with HTB for FTBers and QE/FLS cash for BTL loons.

 

Take 'em away and it's only going one way.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last year in my Norfolk village, seven houses were sold. So far this year only one house has sold and there is only one currently under offer (has been for months so might fall through).

No new stock appearing and none of those currently on the market going  under offer.

The agents must be hurting badly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's interesting that in spite of the fact that there is less property available than 2002 ( when Gordon Brown was directing operations from a strait jacket in number eleven and presiding over a tripling of house prices in a few years (and 2002 was undoubtedly the peak of the madness)) that annual inflation can only manage 2%.

Fwiw in my search area (population 7,000) there are 29 properties for sale from a stock of 53. Historically low, but presumably buyers historically lower still.

 

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Or because there is nothing supporting the  bottom of the chains any more.

This is true, however surely they'd only find that out when their house didn't sell?

The fact that they're not putting their houses on the market in the first place indicates a more complex issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
8 minutes ago, Broken biscuit said:

Last year in my Norfolk village, seven houses were sold. So far this year only one house has sold and there is only one currently under offer (has been for months so might fall through).

No new stock appearing and none of those currently on the market going  under offer.

The agents must be hurting badly.

Good.

But I cannot see how this is hurting the banks much. They have so many people in such high debt much of  which  is going to be a struggle to ever  pay back all on the back,  and which was  just handed to them using QE. Banks can just lay out in the sun now with their favourite cocktail and little umbrella and just wait for the monthly cheques to come in for years to come or more likely decades.

And what can ever go wrong for them, they have already been given the message that banks just cannot be allowed to fail, f*** me I hate the banking system, read up a lot about the banking system in the past year and I hate them more than I ever imagined.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

Good.

But I cannot see how this is hurting the banks much. They have so many people in such high debt much of  which  is going to be a struggle to ever  pay back all on the back,  and which was  just handed to them using QE. Banks can just lay out in the sun now with their favourite cocktail and little umbrella and just wait for the monthly cheques to come in for years to come or more likely decades.

And what can ever go wrong for them, they have already been given the message that banks just cannot be allowed to fail, f*** me I hate the banking system, read up a lot about the banking system in the past year and I hate them more than I ever imagined.

As a Lloyds Bank shareholder I tend to agree, but the Market sees risks on domestic banks and prices are duly on the floor. The case for the domestic banks is that the mortgage debt  percentage is at an all time low compared to the 7 trillion of UK housing Equity. Moreover, a lot of the risk is underwritten on HTB for the riskier new loans. Mortgages apart the domestic banks are literally printing money on debit/ credit card acquiring charges on virtually every commercial transaction without having to lift a finger.

But forward price to earnings of eight and  less than book price is pricing a risk of insolvency for Lloyds. The Market prefers sub prime lender Provident Financial, even now, it has no p/e as I assume it will make a loss and a price well above book value on 31st December before its loans went delinquent.

The Market is never wrong, so Provy must be the safer bet.:wacko: perhaps we are on for a 50% house price crash and lending to single mothers for New York shopping trips is safer.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

With no sales, the banks cant lend, if the banks calt lend, they will die.

The banks need a crash more than we do now :lol: 

The BTLers/Foreign investors were the bottom of the barrel, no one can or will pay these prices.

Banks can onl lending according to MMR.

Put local incomes into the calculator and see how much mortgage debt can be afforded.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

NAEA agrees today. Estate Agents must reap what they have sowed. Definitely concurs with what I am seeing , few sellers and probably few buyers too.

 

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/8/summer-stock-levels-were-lowest-for-at-least-15-years--naea

 

' Stock levels for estate agents at the height of summer were their lowest for at least 15 years according to the National Association of Estate Agents. '

They mean since 2002, when FTB/OO could not longer afford housing.

So IO BTL and IO FTB mortgages were made up to get the transactions.

Both of those are now dead.

Back to 2002 then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

No buyers (prices too high), no sellers (won't accept lower prices). The whole market has ground to a halt because of GREED and excessive expectations. A crash will unlock the market ... just needs vendors to drop prices.  Eventually houses HAVE to be sold - the owner needs to downsize, or move, or dies.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Option5 said:

People are not moving, possibly because they can't afford the difference for next rung up the housing"ladder" or possibly because they've seen a snake.

This. We've been looking at trading up for a while - absolutely no value for money. Six figures + just for a bit more room or a larger garden in the NW of England. Absolute joke.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

No buyers (prices too high), no sellers (won't accept lower prices). The whole market has ground to a halt because of GREED and excessive expectations. A crash will unlock the market ... just needs vendors to drop prices.  Eventually houses HAVE to be sold - the owner needs to downsize, or move, or dies.  

Needs an alternative place to put money. A rise in savings rates would be a good place to start. Faith in the Equity Market would also see a rotation out of property. The 90s was a good decade for Equity and a shocker for property. But not much chance of that with property being the bi partisan investment of choice even for the alt left.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
1 hour ago, crashmonitor said:

As a Lloyds Bank shareholder I tend to agree, but the Market sees risks on domestic banks and prices are duly on the floor. The case for the domestic banks is that the mortgage debt  percentage is at an all time low compared to the 7 trillion of UK housing Equity. Moreover, a lot of the risk is underwritten on HTB for the riskier new loans. Mortgages apart the domestic banks are literally printing money on debit/ credit card acquiring charges on virtually every commercial transaction without having to lift a finger.

But forward price to earnings of eight and  less than book price is pricing a risk of insolvency for Lloyds. The Market prefers sub prime lender Provident Financial, even now, it has no p/e as I assume it will make a loss and a price well above book value on 31st December before its loans went delinquent.

The Market is never wrong, so Provy must be the safer bet.:wacko: perhaps we are on for a 50% house price crash and lending to single mothers for New York shopping trips is safer.

Looks like we are not saving either

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41107906

 

Was a time when debt was frowned upon and saving encouraged, how times change in such a short period of time. Mind you Carney the magician wants us to save while borrowing at the same time as we stay vigilant.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

No buyers (prices too high), no sellers (won't accept lower prices). The whole market has ground to a halt because of GREED and excessive expectations. A crash will unlock the market ... just needs vendors to drop prices.  Eventually houses HAVE to be sold - the owner needs to downsize, or move, or dies.  

Rising prices brings out supply as people dont mind overpaying as the house will surely be worth more.

falling prices bring out supply as people want to lock in the profits for retirement etc.

At the moment we are in transition from the former to the latter people are rightly concerned that if they take an offer the maestro carney will act and the prices will start to go up again.

Some people have died/divorced so they have to sell at the market price.... Those who dont are sitting atm.

The falls will start to snowball slowy unless the government gets bored (remember they need a crash or boom or both before the next election) and then there may be a push to speed things up.

I dont even have to worry atm as even if money was not a factor I just dont like anything for sale at the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Option5 said:

This is true, however surely they'd only find that out when their house didn't sell?

The fact that they're not putting their houses on the market in the first place indicates a more complex issue.

Fair point.  I'd just had a coffee.  Extra strong, ranty amount of caffeine 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are there any graph

7 hours ago, spyguy said:

' Stock levels for estate agents at the height of summer were their lowest for at least 15 years according to the National Association of Estate Agents. '

They mean since 2002, when FTB/OO could not longer afford housing.

So IO BTL and IO FTB mortgages were made up to get the transactions.

Both of those are now dead.

Back to 2002 then.

Are there any graphs of transaction volumes going back that far? Couldn't find one.

How much of the volumes in recent years was driven by speculative buying and selling rather than the genuine need to move home?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Sawitcoming said:

Are there any graph

Are there any graphs of transaction volumes going back that far? Couldn't find one.

How much of the volumes in recent years was driven by speculative buying and selling rather than the genuine need to move home?

Not prerolled graphs, at least showing resi, btl. None dxist.

Use houseprices.io for a postcode. On my northern post codes of interest, transaction number fall in 2002 and bounce along bottom. Sales are few and far between.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Needs an alternative place to put money. A rise in savings rates would be a good place to start. Faith in the Equity Market would also see a rotation out of property. The 90s was a good decade for Equity and a shocker for property. But not much chance of that with property being the bi partisan investment of choice even for the alt left.

My guess is that the sheer weight of demographics will bring equity and other non-property options back into favour. With houses priced so high, and by their nature indivisible, good earners will be pushed into other investments out of necessity. This will teach them that property is not the only game in town - and that, in fact, a diversified portfolio is probably a better bet in the long run - and other people will start changing their investment habits as newspaper articles get written about share portfolios rather than BTL. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I read the article as meaning stock was lower than at any point since 2002 because the dataset was only started 15 years ago, not because 2002 stock levels were extremely low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   69 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.