Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sancho Panza

Brexodus:rents going down?

Recommended Posts

Evening Standard 12/8/16

'The London neighbourhoods most vulnerable to a potential housing market dive sparked by the Brexit vote have been revealed in a new analysis.

It comes amid fears of a mass exodus of EU citizens from the capital — a “Brexodus” — following the referendum. More than 840,000 people born in the other 27 member states live in London, and many have spoken of their concerns for the future — and how they feel less welcome in Britain — after the Leave vote.

The boroughs with the highest concentration of residents from another EU nation are Kensington and Chelsea (18.5 per cent) Haringey (16.8 per cent); Westminster (15.9 per cent); and Hammersmith and Fulham (14.8 per cent).

The research, by buying agents Garrington Property Finders, used 2011 census data to pinpoint council wards hosting the highest numbers of residents from each EU nation. These, it says, are the neighbourhoods most at risk of a slump in house prices and rents — particularly if the City is damaged by leaving the EU. It discovered:

Queen’s Gate ward in Kensington, close to the Lycée Francais, has the most French residents in London;

Germans are most likely to have homes in Ham, Petersham and Richmond Riverside, near the German secondary school;

The biggest Italian cluster is in the  St Mary’s Park area of Clapham;

Lancaster Gate ward in Westminster is home to more Spaniards than anywhere else in London. 

Garrington managing director Jonathan Hopper said: “If Brexit were to lead to financial institutions downsizing London operations, the inevitable job losses or staff relocating abroad could significantly impact swathes of the London market.

“Without swift action to reassure buyers, some areas could start to suffer purely from ‘fear of the unknown’.”

Spanish entrepreneur Elena Lopez, who lives in Docklands, said her future in London had been thrown into jeopardy by the Brexit vote. The 27-year-old first came to London aged 18 to work in a hotel and recently launched her first business, My Property Host. 

She said: “My savings are tied up in My Property Host and I have nothing to go back to in Spain. I’ve worked hard to start my business.  I worry Brexit could jeopardise everything my business partner and I  have achieved.”

Ben Madden, managing director of Thorgills estate agency, added: “Any cut in migration from mainland Europe may depress future demand and therefore house price rises.

“Lower migration would mean fewer people hunting for accommodation so rental prices could take a dip. Many UK residents born in other EU countries are far more likely to be private renters. Fewer EU nationals moving to the UK may in the longer term have a marked impact on demand levels.”

 

 

 

 

I know there's been recent dips in rents in Londinium,wondering how much they're down to people leaving and how much due to economy tanking?

I've googled it and there's not a lot out there.

Obviously,waiting for the rent drops to spread to Leicester.

 

Edited by Sancho Panza

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting, thanks for that.  Rents and house prices do seem to be experiencing some serious headwinds at the moment.  If JC get in today then that can be used as an explanation; if he doesn't then it will be something to do with the problems of a 'hung parliament'.  I am sure there will be a rational explanation for why the main driver of the economy is going backwards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

London and the like are the posh end of Breixt - bankers - and the unposh end - sandwich making iin Pret.

I have a friend who is gong(gone?) thru an expensive (for him) dviorce.

He's lost his job on the rigs so is looking to get an onshore job. Where we're from its .... Malton Bacon Factory.

Anyhow, hes been round a few empty/soon available rentals in Malton (Norton actually). The agents/LL that have shown him round said this used to be occupied by Polish, Lithuinain, Estonian. You name it, they worked there. It used to employ loads of locals on pretty good wages. EE have flooded the market so the factory lowered wages.

They are going home as they arrived when the £ was amost 2E. They are leaving as the £ is almost 1E.

As I see Brexit panning, in work benefits + HB will be banned, EU mgriants will be required to pay for schooling and healthcare for non working family members.

Having someone earning 6k doing 16h make work for the tax credits has got to stop.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sancho Panza said:

Evening Standard 12/8/16

'The London neighbourhoods most vulnerable to a potential housing market dive sparked by the Brexit vote have been revealed in a new analysis.

It comes amid fears of a mass exodus of EU citizens from the capital — a “Brexodus” — following the referendum. More than 840,000 people born in the other 27 member states live in London, and many have spoken of their concerns for the future — and how they feel less welcome in Britain — after the Leave vote.

The boroughs with the highest concentration of residents from another EU nation are Kensington and Chelsea (18.5 per cent) Haringey (16.8 per cent); Westminster (15.9 per cent); and Hammersmith and Fulham (14.8 per cent).

The research, by buying agents Garrington Property Finders, used 2011 census data to pinpoint council wards hosting the highest numbers of residents from each EU nation. These, it says, are the neighbourhoods most at risk of a slump in house prices and rents — particularly if the City is damaged by leaving the EU. It discovered:

Queen’s Gate ward in Kensington, close to the Lycée Francais, has the most French residents in London;

Germans are most likely to have homes in Ham, Petersham and Richmond Riverside, near the German secondary school;

The biggest Italian cluster is in the  St Mary’s Park area of Clapham;

Lancaster Gate ward in Westminster is home to more Spaniards than anywhere else in London. 

Garrington managing director Jonathan Hopper said: “If Brexit were to lead to financial institutions downsizing London operations, the inevitable job losses or staff relocating abroad could significantly impact swathes of the London market.

“Without swift action to reassure buyers, some areas could start to suffer purely from ‘fear of the unknown’.”

Spanish entrepreneur Elena Lopez, who lives in Docklands, said her future in London had been thrown into jeopardy by the Brexit vote. The 27-year-old first came to London aged 18 to work in a hotel and recently launched her first business, My Property Host. 

She said: “My savings are tied up in My Property Host and I have nothing to go back to in Spain. I’ve worked hard to start my business.  I worry Brexit could jeopardise everything my business partner and I  have achieved.”

Ben Madden, managing director of Thorgills estate agency, added: “Any cut in migration from mainland Europe may depress future demand and therefore house price rises.

“Lower migration would mean fewer people hunting for accommodation so rental prices could take a dip. Many UK residents born in other EU countries are far more likely to be private renters. Fewer EU nationals moving to the UK may in the longer term have a marked impact on demand levels.”

 

 

 

 

I know there's been recent dips in rents in Londinium,wondering how much they're down to people leaving and how much due to economy tanking?

I've googled it and there's not a lot out there.

Obviously,waiting for the rent drops to spread to Leicester.

 

Bascially,

Are you an EU citizen?

Are you single? Then you need to be eaning 30K+ to stay.

Family then 50K+ to stay.

Working in Pret with kids  + claiming HB + TC? Fckoff.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, spyguy said:

London and the like are the posh end of Breixt - bankers - and the unposh end - sandwich making iin Pret.

I have a friend who is gong(gone?) thru an expensive (for him) dviorce.

He's lost his job on the rigs so is looking to get an onshore job. Where we're from its .... Malton Bacon Factory.

Anyhow, hes been round a few empty/soon available rentals in Malton (Norton actually). The agents/LL that have shown him round said this used to be occupied by Polish, Lithuinain, Estonian. You name it, they worked there. It used to employ loads of locals on pretty good wages. EE have flooded the market so the factory lowered wages.

They are going home as they arrived when the £ was amost 2E. They are leaving as the £ is almost 1E.

As I see Brexit panning, in work benefits + HB will be banned, EU mgriants will be required to pay for schooling and healthcare for non working family members.

Having someone earning 6k doing 16h make work for the tax credits has got to stop.

 

 

Coincidentally a Polish bloke said to me this week, the exchange rate had collapse 20-30% in the last year or so and suddenly it's not looking like such a good deal here in the Uk.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Coincidentally a Polish bloke said to me this week, the exchange rate had collapse 20-30% in the last year or so and suddenly it's not looking like such a good deal here in the Uk.

 

My point sort of was that its not that the (working) EE/EUers are feeling attacked  or whatever BS the BBC makes up.

Its the fact that they moved here @ 1£=2E and are leaving as 1£ = 1E.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sancho Panza said:

I know there's been recent dips in rents in Londinium,wondering how much they're down to people leaving and how much due to economy tanking?

I've googled it and there's not a lot out there.

Obviously,waiting for the rent drops to spread to Leicester.

 

Have you considered the Help to Buy Bail Banks factor?

40% in London might mean buying paying a mortgage of only 60% is cheaper than renting. If prices go down the jolly old taxpayer picks up the bank's loss of up to 240k on a 600k property. London at 40% is Help to Rent?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Have you considered the Help to Buy Bail Banks factor?

40% in London might mean buying paying a mortgage of only 60% is cheaper than renting. If prices go down the jolly old taxpayer picks up the bank's loss of up to 240k on a 600k property. London at 40% is Help to Rent?

AFAIK HTB does not exist in London.

Its all out i nthe regions, on new builds.

London *is* the epicentre/death star for IO + IO BTL lending.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, spyguy said:

My point sort of was that its not that the (working) EE/EUers are feeling attacked  or whatever BS the BBC makes up.

Its the fact that they moved here @ 1£=2E and are leaving as 1£ = 1E.

 

A lot more Europeans have been murdered by Islamists than Brexiters.  Is it 13-0 now?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, spyguy said:

My point sort of was that its not that the (working) EE/EUers are feeling attacked  or whatever BS the BBC makes up.

Its the fact that they moved here @ 1£=2E and are leaving as 1£ = 1E.

 

If they can have a similar better life back home, why wouldnt they !!!

many will have bought and paid for a house/flat back home now and have kids at school age.

I'd go home now for sure.  I think I started a thread a few months ago wondering if the Exodus has started as I knew 1/2 people who were offski

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, spyguy said:

My point sort of was that its not that the (working) EE/EUers are feeling attacked  or whatever BS the BBC makes up.

Its the fact that they moved here @ 1£=2E and are leaving as 1£ = 1E.

 

My wife is an immigrant and what would make us leave is if she could convince me life back in her country would be better than here*.  Unless you are supporting someone overseas exchange rate is not that important.

*She sadly can't because I can't find work there :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

My wife is an immigrant and what would make us leave is if she could convince me life back in her country would be better than here*.  Unless you are supporting someone overseas exchange rate is not that important.

*She sadly can't because I can't find work there :(

In the main, these are EE couples.

I guess theyve been here 5+ years, got the bulk of their money for a house sorted and are now looking to go back.

Its a different story for the EEer on tax credits with kids here. Thats a nightmare situation for both parties - UKGOV is payingthem 25K in benefits; migrants have had kids here and do not have a job in Poland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

A lot more Europeans have been murdered by Islamists than Brexiters.  Is it 13-0 now?

Well, there was this Polish bloke murdered in Harlow back in August 2016, presumably for speaking Polish in the open.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mic test 1 2 3.

I replied to iamnumerate, but I can see that post as "Hidden" and don't know what to do about it.

A lot more Europeans have been murdered by Islamists than Brexiters.  Is it 13-0 now?

Well, there was this Polish bloke murdered in Harlow back in August 2016, presumably for speaking Polish in the open.

@spyguy - I don't know about EE in general, but Poland has become so unappealing recently that if somebody lives here and is able to save enough to buy a place back home (assuming they still consider Poland their home), they might just as well stay here and keep saving for a place in UK. You keep reducing immigration to a simple chase for money, but even if it starts as such, it soon becomes about much more. 

Edited by kibuc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Mic test 1 2 3.

I replied to iamnumerate, but I can see that post as "Hidden" and don't know what to do about it.

Well, there was this Polish bloke murdered in Harlow back in August 2016, presumably for speaking Polish in the open.

@spyguy - I don't know about EE in general, but Poland has become so unappealing recently that if somebody lives here and is able to save enough to buy a place back home (assuming they still consider Poland their home), they might just as well stay here and keep saving for a place in UK. You keep reducing immigration to a simple chase for money, but even if it starts as such, it soon becomes about much more. 

Err 99% of EE migration ti the UK is about chasing money, be it higher paid work or benefits.

They are not here for the weather.

Sad to say, we'd still be in the EU if we ~4M EE had not turned up 2004-2016.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Err 99% of EE migration ti the UK is about chasing money, be it higher paid work or benefits.

They are not here for the weather.

Sad to say, we'd still be in the EU if we ~4M EE had not turned up 2004-2016.

Where is that data (99%) coming from, cause it looks made up on the spot?

I'm basing my opinion on anecdotal evidence of all the migrants I know, and on my personal experience. Single professionals from Portugal, Italy or wherever might consider going back - they are doing contract work anyway and are used to changing their surroundings, Brexit or not. Poles - a grand total of ZERO I've spoken to considers going back, regardless of their family status here.

As I said, I might agree that the primary driver for immigration is money. However, once you move, other factors might come into the foreground. F.eg. for my wife one of the biggest deterrent is that abortion is pretty much illegal in PL. I cannot see how falling pound plays into that.

 

Edited by kibuc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Evening Standard 12/8/16

'The London neighbourhoods most vulnerable to a potential housing market dive sparked by the Brexit vote have been revealed in a new analysis.

 

Nothing to do with it being a lawless shithole then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see absolutely no sign of EE heading back home from around where I stay. In fact Southern Europeans as well.

I'm just talking personal anecdotes of course. However these are from sports clubs/sessions that I attend. You get a very wide range of all sorts of people going to them. I think they are a pretty good bellwether - as far as a small anecdotal can go.

1 Polish bloke has gone home. About 3 have appeared. Quite a few Spanish appearing as well. Maybe 3 new ones as well.

All this in the last 3 months.

My anecdote could of course be completely non representative.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Where is that data (99%) coming from, cause it looks made up on the spot?

I'm basing my opinion on anecdotal evidence of all the migrants I know, and on my personal experience. Single professionals from Portugal, Italy or wherever might consider going back - they are doing contract work anyway and are used to changing their surroundings, Brexit or not. Poles - a grand total of ZERO I've spoken to considers going back, regardless of their family status here.

As I said, I might agree that the primary driver for immigration is money. However, once you move, other factors might come into the foreground. F.eg. for my wife one of the biggest deterrent is that abortion is pretty much illegal in PL. I cannot see how falling pound plays into that.

 

Why else did EE come here?

Im good friends with a Pole who came her to develop her parents agri company.

Shes the only EE with family Ive talked to who could afford to remain here without benefits - HB or TC.

The rest, pretty much to a man or woman, are doing low paid work. Thats viable is you are single and are OK to slum it.

Its less viable when you bring a non working spouse and kids. In these cases, all the EE families I know are drawing down TC + HB.

Id doubt that UKGOV will throw out EUers. However, I do think they will stop the ability to claim more than JSA and insist that EU pay for educaiot and healthcare.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

A lot more Europeans have been murdered by Islamists than Brexiters.  Is it 13-0 now?

13-2 surely? (that I recall).

Also, I think we need to aim a little higher than "not as bad as ISIS"...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just made a post and it's marked as 'Hidden' and coloured pale-pink - anyone know what that's about?

Edited by tomandlu
test2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

I think that means it's being moderated. That happens to me lately.

I wondered if it was because I included the word "ISIS", but that seemed to make no difference to my query post. Anyway, it appears to be showing up now, so apols for the detour.

Edited by tomandlu

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

A lot more Europeans have been murdered by Islamists than Brexiters.  Is it 13-0 now?

Looking at the crime stats in the local papers i follow, EE kill other EEers at a hefty rate.

How else does a boring shithole in the arseend of the fens become the uks murder capital? Its boston by the way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   76 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.