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Thorn

An Irish Wall or a Brexit Fudge?

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With businesses here waiting to see what will happen next, I think there doesn't seem to be a real appetite here in Ireland North or South for a Hard Border to go with a Hard Brexit. There has been no clarity so far from any of the political parties over here or from Westminster to describe what the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will look like after Brexit. Currently there are no roadblocks, no checkpoints. Just the road signs change from miles to km. If there is to be no Hard Border (like the dark days of the Troubles- think Checkpoint Charlie), then a Soft Border could need negotiated and that could require a Brexit Fudge. 

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100% agree. Vested Interests might not allow it. Remember when Ireland voted the wrong way in the Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in 08? Well the government simply did the usual of Rephrasing the Question to make sure it got passed when people were made to Vote again in the repeat Referendum in 09. The EU way. 

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So watching the election results and polls and it feels like sure enough there will be no Irish wall. Brexit Fudge it is. Will be interesting to see what influence the nationalist parties in Northern Ireland and Scotland will have at Westminster now.  My view is that for the UK Brexit vote, next up will be the same as the Lisbon Referendum repeat in Ireland in 08/09... so get ready for the "Rephrasing of the Question"...Until we all get it right. 

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On 07/06/2017 at 8:07 AM, hotairmail said:

I think Ireland should leave the EU and re-join the UK in a loose confederation of devolved states in a British Isles Federation.

That is what logic wuold dictate but we're not dealing with logic sadly.

Logic would dictate that the UK stayed in the EU, but we're not dealing with logic sadly.

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I love Europe and all our different ways and I think over the years the EU made governments Spread It Around, benefitting lots of people not just London and Dublin. But any admiration I had for the EU all changed when the Troika came to Dublin and made the Irish government put all that European banker casino debt on Irish taxpayers. The Republic has about 4 million people- about the size of greater Manchester I think is how the marketers see it. All that debt to be repaid to German and French banks has created seething resentment for a generation. Did the newly elected Irish government actually Burn the Bondholders as they said they would while electioneering? Not a chance   

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I hope the DUP immediately demand the withdraw of Article 50 notification as a condition of forming a Government.

If not I'll settle for Lab/Lib/SNP and whoever, with SNP and Lib Dems demanding withdrawl of Article 50.

Nice :-)

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28 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I hope the DUP immediately demand the withdraw of Article 50 notification as a condition of forming a Government.

If not I'll settle for Lab/Lib/SNP and whoever, with SNP and Lib Dems demanding withdrawl of Article 50.

Nice :-)

The DUP want a hard Brexit and I think they'd actually be perfectly happy with a hard border with the Republic of Ireland. 

If there's going to be concessions to be had to go into coalition, they'll be looking for £££.

Edited by NuBrit

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1.  Put the hard border in the Irish Sea.

2.  Free entry of people, goods, services and capital from the Republic to the North.  Any restrictions the Republic chooses to impose going the other way are up to them  (i.e. the EU).

3.  The North is granted greater political autonomy as an incentive to make the above work, while remaining part of the UK.

4.  Discontinue eligibility of non-British citizens for non-contribution based state benefits.

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28 minutes ago, willie said:

Yes as I said on another thread the begging bowl will be out and the king makers will be the puppet masters.

That didn't work out very well for the LibDems.

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On 06/06/2017 at 11:35 PM, Thorn said:

With businesses here waiting to see what will happen next, I think there doesn't seem to be a real appetite here in Ireland North or South for a Hard Border to go with a Hard Brexit. There has been no clarity so far from any of the political parties over here or from Westminster to describe what the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will look like after Brexit. Currently there are no roadblocks, no checkpoints. Just the road signs change from miles to km. If there is to be no Hard Border (like the dark days of the Troubles- think Checkpoint Charlie), then a Soft Border could need negotiated and that could require a Brexit Fudge. 

Everybody talking about a hard border is thinking about the army/police security checkpoints during the troubles. This was nothing to do with the customs border. In fact, when I was pulled in and searched by the army I would often tell them how much cheaper things were in the North.

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Interesting times ahead for sure. The DUP have campaigned on a "Hard Brexit/let's maximize Northern Ireland's separation from the Republic in every way" ticket. Everybody else here wanted to stay in the EU... (and most others would have been happy like the Republic to allow things like Gay Marriage). But many people living near the border have families and businesses on the other side, just a few miles away.  The balance that has been in place here since the Peace Process got going feels fairly shaky sometimes- especially now during the Loyalist Marching Season in the run up to 12 July and the big parades then. Recently here neither side gets their own way too much and the British Government seems to have been able to adopt a hands-off approach that has benefitted that balance. But now the DUP will have The Conservatives where they want them, I wonder if the balance will shift. 

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6 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I hope the DUP immediately demand the withdraw of Article 50 notification as a condition of forming a Government.

If not I'll settle for Lab/Lib/SNP and whoever, with SNP and Lib Dems demanding withdrawl of Article 50.

Nice :-)

You do realise DUP is a harcore brexity party.  Con (319) + DUP (10) = 329

And if you know how to add up, Lab (261) + SNP (35) + LD (12) + Greens (1) + PC (4) = 313

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55 minutes ago, Mr Foster said:

You do realise DUP is a harcore brexity party.  Con (319) + DUP (10) = 329

And if you know how to add up, Lab (261) + SNP (35) + LD (12) + Greens (1) + PC (4) = 313

Yes, but they are also HardCore Unionists, and that comes first.  Brexit risks the Union, and I know what they'd support first. They don't represent all of Northern Ireland, and there is movement towards a united Ireland as a result of Brexit.

 

Plus we have enough remainer Conservatives to wreck Brexit.

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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It's the pro-remain backbenchers within the Tory party that will be the issue going forward- John Major had to contend with dissent from them in the 1990s and so the Ulster Unionists- then the dominant voice of their side over here- had great power because he really needed every single vote they could lend him. The Peace Process got slowed down for quite some time- I always got the feeling John Major wanted to crack on with things getting a settlement here between the Two Tribes rather than the slow progress he was able to manage. Regarding the Irish Wall? It will be interesting to see exactly what gifts -walls or otherwise- that the DUP might get from the Conservatives in exchange for their support. (...composes wishlist...). Oh- maybe we might get one of those City banks who are needing a new home...

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4 hours ago, Riedquat said:

That didn't work out very well for the LibDems.

I wouldn't try and apply your GB political yardstick to an NI party. An election here is a sectarian headcount. The DUP is the party of corruption, incompetence, ignorance and scandal. All documented, all available online and in the press.They still get the votes. They could get away with pretty much anything in coalition and not have to worry about the electorate reaction. They are guaranteed the votes in the headcount until demographics change. 

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29 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I wouldn't try and apply your GB political yardstick to an NI party. An election here is a sectarian headcount. The DUP is the party of corruption, incompetence, ignorance and scandal. All documented, all available online and in the press.They still get the votes. They could get away with pretty much anything in coalition and not have to worry about the electorate reaction. They are guaranteed the votes in the headcount until demographics change. 

After reading your post, I thought I'd see if any journos had made the point.

i did find this: http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/will-may-be-terrorist-sympathiser-after-dup-link/

 

 

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39 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I wouldn't try and apply your GB political yardstick to an NI party. An election here is a sectarian headcount. The DUP is the party of corruption, incompetence, ignorance and scandal. All documented, all available online and in the press.They still get the votes. They could get away with pretty much anything in coalition and not have to worry about the electorate reaction. They are guaranteed the votes in the headcount until demographics change. 

Sadly this is true. After Nama, the fuel £'s for friends and numerous other scandals the DUP have gained in this election. It is worrying how much power Arlene and chums now have. Heaven only knows what they will do with it.      

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10 minutes ago, little fish said:

Sadly this is true. After Nama, the fuel £'s for friends and numerous other scandals the DUP have gained in this election. It is worrying how much power Arlene and chums now have. Heaven only knows what they will do with it.      

Only hope is that the GB electorate choke on the DUP poison before too long. 

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It might be good craic though. From childhood, everybody near the border is used to 'Going over for petrol'- depending on which side was cheaper at any given time. Back to the heady days of going over the border by bus... getting butter and brandy and stuff that was far cheaper in the South... trying to sneak it back over the border without getting caught. Heard all the stories growing up. Customs men would get you to stand in the sun for an extra half an hour to make sure any butter hidden under your hat would melt all down you.. then smile and let you on your way. Ah, bliss. 

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'course a Hard Brexit digital border would spot that butter and you would probably beep now

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1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

After reading your post, I thought I'd see if any journos had made the point.

i did find this: http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/will-may-be-terrorist-sympathiser-after-dup-link/

 

 

If you want a good read Google DUP NAMA. Local law fire was paid £7 million by an American firm representing Cerberus. The managing partner placed the money in an Isle of man account. There were allegations at the committee hearing that the DUP leader was getting a cut. It's all part of a national crime agency investigation now. Spotlight conducted several investigations. 

 

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Hard. Think "As Much Distance As Possible From The Republic of Ireland and No Meddling From Brussels" I would say would sum up their general attitude to things. One of their people was on BBC Radio Ulster this evening on the drive home saying he sees no need for them to change their policies in order to become more generally attractive to the UK electorate. 

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