Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Toast

What or who will the media blame for the 2017/8 financial crisis?

What will the media blame for the 2017/8 financial crisis?  

100 members have voted

  1. 1. Where will the media pin the blame?

    • Sub-prime car loans (US and/or UK)
      4
    • Foreign buyers pulling out of prime real estate in "world cities"
      4
    • Mistake by the FED in raising interest rates, or "tapering" too soon
      7
    • PIIGS and their profligacy (which was never solved)
      0
    • Deutsche Bank's / Italian Banks' foolish lending (or similar)
      0
    • Sub-prime mortgage lending in the West (again)
      1
    • Buy to Let clampdown in the UK
      6
    • Fraudulent Chinese commercial loans (missing colateral etc.)
      2
    • Property crash in China
      6
    • Brexit
      56
    • Something bad happening in South America
      0
    • Oil prices staying too low (leveraged bets thereon going sour)
      1
    • Something else
      6
    • Don't be silly: there won't be a financial crisis in 2017/8
      7


Recommended Posts

The media consensus was that the 2007/8 crisis started with sub-prime mortgages in the US. For a bit of fun, let's assume durhamborn is right, and the next crisis is just around the corner...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If it's limited to the UK and Europe - Brexit, since that is being blamed for everything else. Otherwise The Fed, and by extension Trump, is an easy punchbag that avoids addressing the real issues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brexit and Trump. Nothing more and nothing less. That is the only negative narrative by the MSM and thats the only thing the public are aware of or care about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The media have lost the chance of being able to attribute blame.

The interweb will, rightly, blame central banks.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I realise I am asking a rather layered question in this poll, for I am asking you to guess how the next crisis will unfold, in the sense of which bubbles of swamp gas will come to the surface early on, and then to guess how the media will attribute cause and effect.

There have been some good points made in the comments, so I'd like to explain (or post-rationalise; I'm not proud) some of the missing options.

I agree with spyguy that ultimately it's the central banks who are responsible, starting from the mid/late '90's, with the Greenspan put, by failing to rope in the exuberance of the stock market bubble, and turning it into a bond bubble, and a housing bubble etc. etc., over the course of more than two decades. Also, the rise of China has devalued labour at the expense of capital, and I'm sure there are several other macro or demographic trends we can point to as contributory. However, gradual failures and trends over decades don't make for a good headline in a crisis, so those options are not there; only the "FED makes a mistake by raising rates", because it's a good headline. For the same reasons, the human failings of greed and laziness and the madness of crowds ("we all did it by paying too much for our houses") won't be the media scapegoat as they won't sufficiently whet our appetite for revenge.

Instead, it has to be some act or event, and it has to be something that emerges early on as the dominoes fall, and preferably the very first big problem that comes to light, and the one that seems to cause the later ones: an origin of the contagion, a patient zero. For that reason, the mere existence of a pariah politician (Trump, Putin, prime minister Corbyn or whoever) doesn't cut the mustard (in the arbitrary world of this little poll).

Freki's point that a collapse of the tech bubble could get the blame (the dotcom bubble revivified) is a good one, though: that should have been on the list. Sorry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, buckers said:

Brexit every time - the 1% didn't want it, thought they had control of the media/process and will never accept the result.

To me it seems to perfect a situation, something big comes along, blame the voters not anything else - I can see them trying and anyone who didn't vote exit feeling rather angry at the fellows who did.

 

On the day after, i heard people talking about the grey vote who will be dead in 10 so they wont have to live the result, biggest thing they could pull was how we'd lose duty free - WTF?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think what your poll so eloquently constructs is a mass of very legitimate potential risks which far outweigh the number of known risks present 10 years ago, actually quite staggering if they all go chain reaction styleeee.

Lets not even mention NK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

I think what your poll so eloquently constructs is a mass of very legitimate potential risks which far outweigh the number of known risks present 10 years ago, actually quite staggering if they all go chain reaction styleeee.

Lets not even mention NK.

I'll mention NuKlear

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This country will go on hands and knees to avoid a correction unfortunately they have a maverick in the whitehouse. Basically if you want favours from the other side of the pond what do  you have to offer? ^_^

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

And if no one will borrow ?

People will always borrow if they sense a deal... if it goes south....risk being made homeless because of bankruptcy or it's already happened, they can contact the local authority as soon as possible to consider your circumstances to see if you're eligible for help with re-housing. Nothing to loose... as you can then apply for right to buy :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not at the moment they're not. Our moving company has just told us it will be great to actually do a move, because all they have had recently has been cancellations due to sales falling through. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're moving from one rental to another in Belfast. The guy came round to see how much gear we have to move, nodded and said he's planning to sell his house and rent asap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

And if no one will borrow ?

Massive gov spending program, anything infrastructure, perhaps even council housing who knows but if joe public aint expanding the debt nor private sector, it'll b gov all the way to the grave (nearly forgot IMHO)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn should pray that they lose this election (by a whisker) - The Independent
https://apple.news/A35gX5RtcRpaqhYM-N-Sl1Q

"This mechanism is quite straightforward to understand: if wages aren't rising, and if interest rates make mortgages more expensive, that will necessarily have some impact. Much more damaging, if intangible, is what happens when the magical ingredient "confidence" starts to evaporate. If the British housing market, at least in London and the South East, has resembled a bubble in recent times then maybe that's precisely what it is. Once prices stop increasing then the bubble will eventually pop, or at least deflate, with a distressingly defiant raspberry sound attached to it. 
The "housing crisis" is being discussed, understandably, as a great problem of affordability; yet a house price recession would soon solve that, at least in the sense that houses and flats would become more easily affordable. But, note, only if you feel confident enough about the prospects for the real estate market and your own ability to hang on to a job."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

And if no one will borrow ?

The Bank has the facility to pay institutions to borrow from them through the TFS by setting a negative rate of interest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   90 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.