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anonlymouse

The Times - House price slump triggers fears of new property recession

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Tom Knowles, Property Correspondent

June 2 2017, 12:01am, The Times

Britain could be heading for another property recession, an expert said yesterday after figures showed the longest sustained dip in house prices since the peak of the financial crisis.

Prices fell by 0.2 per cent across the country between April and May, marking the third consecutive monthly fall and the longest slump since 2009, according to data from one of the UK’s biggest mortgage providers.

 

POST MODERATED TO REMOVE DETAIL MORE THAN ALLOWED BY THE TIMES.

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1 hour ago, anonlymouse said:

Johnny Morris, director of research at Countrywide, said: “This is the start of lower house price growth overall but we are not expecting a dramatic shift. There are no factors forcing lots of people to sell, like rising interest rates or losing their jobs.”

Those factors (rising rates / unemployment) are just two of a large pool of shocks that the housing market is too fragile to withstand. Developments in Canada and Australia have fingers clearly pointed at floods of cheap credit. Neither rates nor unemployment has been the source of a shock, but confidence is plummeting and credit is drying up with it.

1 hour ago, anonlymouse said:

Mortgage approvals dipped to a seven- month low last month, according to the Bank of England

The UK is seeing the same decline in credit issuance from banks, who have clearly given up on the market. Anecdotal stories involving banks forcing sales on depreciated assets they'd been crossing their fingers on since 2009 make sense in the wider context.

Maybe the meetings with the BoE a few months ago were to agree an orderly decline in the credit impulse without creating a shock, but the market has no established signals to help price discovery in a new climate since they've all been muted by stimulus packages. And nothing suggests that avoiding interest rate and unemployment shocks is guaranteed in the short to medium term either.

1 hour ago, anonlymouse said:

A fall in prices may not turn many members of generation rent into owner-occupiers because of the tough “stress” tests to which borrowers are subjected.

Interesting analysis there from The Times, they seem to be suggesting stress tests (not strictly designed or applied anyway) should be removed at the onset of a major correction. You can see why they'd prefer Amber Rudd to John McDonnell in the Treasury.

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2 hours ago, anonlymouse said:

June 2 2017, 12:01am, The Times

Britain could be heading for another property recession, an expert said yesterday after figures showed the longest sustained dip in house prices since the peak of the financial crisis.

If a seasonally adjusted fall of 0.9% over three months (actually a non-SA rise of 1.4%) constitutes a "house price slump" heaven knows what adjectives they'll use once the real falls start.

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6 minutes ago, Broken biscuit said:

If a seasonally adjusted fall of 0.9% over three months (actually a non-SA rise of 1.4%) constitutes a "house price slump" heaven knows what adjectives they'll use once the real falls start.

With the same shoe, the previous fall of 1% was trumped as a rise.


Can't have it both ways.

 

But it's good when the trolls show their hands early on :lol: 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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9 minutes ago, Loving The Crash said:

I'm really scared.  What is everyone going to do with all that extra disposable income when property prices fall?  Frightening stuff...

Spend it....on a BTL

:lol::lol::lol:

The UK property mess wont be solved until the bankers are regulated and the poor are protesting and the government policy changes.

That wont happen until a total collapse happens ( and it will ) and the only way out for the establishment is to throw some of their own under the bus.

Then we wont see house prices rise in 100 years.

Buy a house in the UK, you gotta be kidding.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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This was the 2nd highest story on their digital edition this morning! Especially incredible given we are ein the middle of an election.

Has anyone seen if it was as prominent on the front page of the paper edition?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Loving The Crash said:

I'm really scared.  What is everyone going to do with all that extra disposable income when property prices fall?  Frightening stuff...

Yes if prices drop 50% as they should and folk are put in that disgusting position of not having to rent off a entrepreneurial landlord and live on a 6 month AST it will be truly petrifying.

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2 hours ago, Loving The Crash said:

I'm really scared.  What is everyone going to do with all that extra disposable income when property prices fall?  Frightening stuff...

:D

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Just now, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

I smirked a bit.

Then a lot.

You sure they haven't moved to a swankier office more befitting of their status and level of professionalism?

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32 minutes ago, Upabove said:

This was the 2nd highest story on their digital edition this morning! Especially incredible given we are ein the middle of an election.

Has anyone seen if it was as prominent on the front page of the paper edition?

pm_Eu_ZIFj_T9y_Op_SDjqr_UQ_Times.jpg
image hostings

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36 minutes ago, LC1 said:

You sure they haven't moved to a swankier office more befitting of their status and level of professionalism?

Actually, I should probably check. There's about a dozen EAs and LAs on that one street ... propbably wanted to distance themselves from their competitors :):)

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